NHL EDGE Stats: Sleepers for 2026 Awards, Stanley Cup Playoffs

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at potential sleepers for 2026 NHL Awards and the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

NOTE: The following list of contenders in each category was a collaborative effort by Pete Jensen, Chris Meaney and Troy Perlowitz and has weighed NHL EDGE stats, as well as surface-level metrics and other trends, into account in a player’s or team’s candidacy.

Sleeper team to win Stanley Cup: Montreal Canadiens

Montreal ranked among the top 10 in 22-plus mph speed bursts (100; ninth), 20-plus mph bursts (2,142; sixth) and mid-range goals (92; fifth) last season and has an elite young core, led by forwards Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Ivan Demidov and defenseman Lane Hutson. Per NHL EDGE IQ, the Canadiens ranked seventh in goals off the rush (90; goals coming within five seconds of puck crossing offensive blue line) last regular season, led by Caufield (18; tied for third in NHL). With the addition of veteran Chris Kreider, who has had strong EDGE stats through the years, and another year of experience for a team that reached the Eastern Conference Final last year, Montreal could be primed for an even deeper run fueled by either goalie Jakub Dobes again or rookie Jacob Fowler.

Others: Washington Capitals, Minnesota Wild, Buffalo Sabres

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Sleeper team to make playoffs: San Jose Sharks

The Sharks, despite missing the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the seventh straight season, ranked among the League leaders in both high-danger goals (132; ninth) and mid-range goals (84; tied for 10th) last season. Macklin Celebrini, who finished fourth in the NHL in points (115) last season, led the entire League in mid-range goals (25) and mid-range shots on goal (159) while also ranking seventh among forwards in hardest shot (97.89 mph). With the signing of forward Mason Marchment, integration of rookie Ivar Stenberg (No. 2 pick in 2026 NHL Draft) and additions of defensemen Jacob Trouba (107 long-range shots on goal last season; fifth in entire League) and Darnell Nurse (23.20 mph max skating speed last season; 96th percentile at position), the Sharks could not only end their long postseason drought but also have the ceiling of contending for the Pacific Division title. It’s also worth noting Celebrini, who’s only 20 years old, could contend for awards including the Hart, Art Ross and Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophies.

Others: New Jersey Devils, Toronto Maple Leafs, St. Louis Blues

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Sleeper to win Hart Trophy: Jack Hughes, F, NJD

Jack Hughes, despite missing 21 games last season, finished just outside the top 10 among forwards in mid-range shots on goal (98; 98th percentile) and mid-range goals (14; 97th percentile). Hughes also ranked highly among forwards in high-danger shots on goal (64; 88th percentile), long-range shots on goal (15; 82nd percentile) and long-range goals (two; 93rd percentile). Although the New Jersey Devils made sneaky upgrades to their top six in forwards Anthony Mantha (98th percentile among forwards in both hardest shot and 90-100 mph shot attempts last season) and Luke Evangelista (46.2 offensive zone time percentage; 95th percentile among forwards) and are expected to give goalie Jake Allen (.914 mid-range save percentage last season; fifth in NHL) an opportunity to be the full-time starter, they need Hughes to stay healthy for a full season and fuel New Jersey’s pursuit of the third playoff spot in the Metropolitan Division. After scoring the golden goal at the 2026 Winter Olympics, Jack Hughes is now a household name that can make an obvious case for most valuable player to his team.

Others: Nick Suzuki, F, MTL; Igor Shesterkin, G, NYR; Wyatt Johnston, F, DAL

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Sleeper to win Norris Trophy: Matthew Schaefer, D, NYI

Schaefer, who had the most goals (23) and points (59) by an 18-year-old defenseman in NHL history, led the League’s defensemen in 20-plus mph speed bursts (269) last season; he had 46 more such bursts than the next-closest player at his position (Cale Makar, 223) and the most by any defenseman in a single season since the start of the League's puck and player tracking era (2021-22). Schaefer also led defensemen and was tied for eighth in the NHL in 22-plus mph speed bursts (33). In terms of shots and goals by location, Schaefer ranked in the top 10 among defensemen in each of the six major categories: high-danger shots on goal (18; tied for sixth), high-danger goals (three; tied for ninth); mid-range shots on goal (81; third), mid-range goals (12; tied for third), long-range shots on goal (102; seventh) and long-range goals (eight; second). The New York Islanders remain a fringe playoff team and will rely heavily on Schaefer, who has a ceiling of reaching the rare 30-goal mark by a defenseman, and workhorse goalie Ilya Sorokin, who finished second in the Vezina Trophy voting last season.

Others: Evan Bouchard, EDM; Lane Hutson, MTL; Rasmus Dahlin, BUF

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Sleeper to win Vezina Trophy: Jesper Wallstedt, G, MIN

Wallstedt ranked second in the NHL in save percentage (.916; minimum 25 games) last season, was tied for eighth in 5-on-5 save percentage (.921) and finished seventh in 5-on-5 close save percentage (.928; when game is tied in first or second period or within one goal in third period). During the 2026 postseason, the Minnesota Wild rookie was tied for first in 5-on-5 save percentage (.937) and tied for sixth in 5-on-5 close save percentage (.924).​ Wallstedt ranked fourth in the NHL in percentage of quality starts (69.7 percent; percentage of starts with a save percentage greater than .900) and was second in that category during the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs (70.0 percent). The 23-year-old also ranked highly at his position in mid-range save percentage (.912; tied for sixth) during the regular season and ranked first among goalies in high-danger save percentage during the postseason (.865; minimum five games). Wallstedt could shoulder a heavy workload in his second full NHL season, especially if Filip Gustavsson misses time after having offseason hip surgery.

Others: Brandon Bussi, CAR; Igor Shesterkin, NYR; Jacob Markstrom, FLA

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Sleeper to win Calder Trophy: Cole Hutson, D, WSH

With the offseason additions of Jordan Kyrou and Alex Tuch, return of Alex Ovechkin for another season and Hutson, Ryan Leonard and Ilya Protas ushering in the new guard of Capitals’ young talent, the stage is set for Hutson to contend for the Calder Trophy. Although Hutson will share time with elite goal-scoring defenseman and EDGE stats standout Jakob Chychrun, Washington’s supporting cast should allow Hutson to thrive offensively -- especially on the power play. Hutson had 10 points (six on power play) in his first 14 NHL games last season and ranked in the 91st percentile among defensemen in max skating speed (22.94 mph). Although the front-runners for the Calder Trophy are forwards Gavin McKenna and Porter Martone, it’s worth noting each of the past two winners of this award have been defensemen: Schaefer last season and Cole’s brother Lane Hutson in 2024-25.

Others: Ivar Stenberg, F, SJS; Jacob Fowler, G, MTL; Anton Frondell, F, CHI

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Sleeper to win "Rocket" Richard Trophy: Cutter Gauthier, F, ANA

Gauthier scored an NHL career-high 41 goals (tied for 11th in NHL) last season, and his elite advanced shot metrics were a huge reason for his breakout season. Gauthier ranked third among NHL forwards in hardest shot (99.90 mph) and was a standout at his position in average shot speed (63.93 mph; 97th percentile). The 22-year-old translated his shot speed to his perimeter shooting; he ranked third in the NHL in snap shot goals (23) last season, fourth in the League in mid-range shots on goal (117) and was tied for fourth in mid-range goals (18). He also was among the forward leaders in long-range offense, ranking in the 98th percentile in long-range shots on goal (37; tied for 10th at position) and 93rd percentile in long-range goals (two). With new contracts resolved for both Leo Carlsson and Gauthier, these forwards could play on the same line and have enormous offensive ceilings.

Others: Macklin Celebrini, F, SJS; Matt Boldy, F, MIN; Dylan Guenther, F, UTA