NHL EDGE stats: Carlsson trophy contender for Ducks

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at three underlying metrics behind Leo Carlsson's elite two-way game after the Anaheim Ducks matched his historic offer sheet.

1. Shots by location

Carlsson signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Ducks on July 9 after they matched an offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers on July 3; the contract has an average annual value of $18 million, making it the richest in NHL history. Carlsson’s advanced metrics support that he’s already one of the League’s most complete players with an even higher gear to reach in the years ahead.

Carlsson, who’s only 21 years old and was the No. 2 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, is coming off a breakout season, helping the Ducks end their seven-season Stanley Cup Playoff drought and win a postseason round for the first time since 2017. Carlsson started last season with a point per game (44 in first 44 games) prior to his injury absence and finished with NHL career highs in goals (29), assists (38) and points (67) despite being limited to 70 games. Carlsson then added 11 points (four goals, seven assists) in 12 postseason games.

Carlsson ranked highly among forwards in key EDGE goal and shot by location categories last regular season despite missing 12 games and then was also a standout during the postseason (percentile rankings among forwards listed below):

2025-26 regular season

• High-danger goals: 16 (92nd percentile)
• High-danger shots on goal: 62 (86th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 12 (95th percentile) 
• Midrange shots on goal: 85 (96th percentile)
• Long-range shots on goal: 15 (82nd percentile)

2026 postseason:

• High-danger goals: 3 (90th percentile)
• High-danger shots on goal: 12 (89th percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 13 (93rd percentile)
• Long-range shots on goal: 4 (88th percentile)

Carlsson also has a robust shots-by-type profile; despite missing time last season, he was one of 10 players in the NHL with at least 12 wrist shot goals, 11 snap shot goals, two slap shot goals and three backhanded goals. And although he didn't stand out in terms of hardest shot during the regular season, he did have sneaky shot speed with 68 shot attempts in the 70-80 mph range (90th percentile among forwards) last season.

Then, during the 2026 playoffs, Carlsson recorded his hardest shot attempt of his career (88.91 mph on April 20; 87th percentile among forwards in postseason) and saw an uptick in shots on goal per game (3.42 in playoffs; led Ducks) compared to the regular season (2.76).

2. Skating metrics

Carlsson excels in skating speed and has one of the heaviest workloads among forwards. He ranked in the 95th percentile among forwards in 20-plus mph speed bursts (197) last season and 94th percentile at his position in total skating distance (240.73 miles). Carlsson skated 4.52 miles on Nov. 13, 2025, the eighth-highest single-game skating distance among forwards last season.

Carlsson was also a strong special teams player last season, setting career highs in power-play points (18), shorthanded goals (two) and shorthanded points (three). Carlsson had a heavy face-off volume last season (976; second on Ducks behind Ryan Poehling’s 1,028) but has room for improvement on his face-off win percentage (44.4).

With Carlsson's strong advanced stats, he burst onto the scene early on last season; at the first-quarter mark (Nov. 20, 2025), Carlsson was tied for fifth in the entire NHL in points (28 in first 21 games), making waves around the League as one of the most complete players. Then, in the 2026 playoffs, Carlsson was among the forward leaders in 20-plus mph speed bursts (49; 95th percentile), 22-plus mph speed bursts (five; 95th percentile) and max skating speed (23.04 mph; 93rd percentile).

3. Possession prowess

Carlsson led the Ducks in both 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (56.3) and 5-on-5 shot attempts differential (plus-251) among those who played at least 20 games last regular season. He also led Anaheim forwards in takeaways (34; tied for 17th among NHL forwards) and was second on the team in that category behind defenseman Jackson LaCombe (led entire NHL with 52; played all 82 regular-season games).

With a young core led by Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, LaCombe and rookie Beckett Sennecke, the Ducks were one of the NHL’s most-improved teams both in terms of year-over-year wins (plus-8) and 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (ranked 7th in NHL at 52.2 last season after finishing 30th out of 32 teams at 46.3 in 2024-25).

Although Carlsson’s new contract comes with the pressure of living up to the highest average annual value in NHL history, his elite two-way game and versatility make him different from many of the superstars around the League that could command higher AAV contracts in the future. With Carlsson having a high offensive ceiling at such a young age, he could be a future contender for various trophies ranging from the Hart (most valuable player) to the Art Ross (NHL regular-season scoring leader) to the Selke (top defensive forward) and even the Conn Smythe (postseason MVP) and Stanley Cup given the trajectory of Anaheim’s young talent.