NHL EDGE stats: Capitals have high ceiling with Ovechkin, new additions

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE)  puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at five underlying reasons the Washington Capitals can make a deep Stanley Cup Playoff run with Alex Ovechkin returning for his 22nd NHL season.

1. Ovechkin’s continued prowess

Ovechkin, the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer (929) and Washington’s longtime captain, announced July 2 that he will be back for his 22nd NHL season. Ovechkin, who led the Capitals to their only Stanley Cup title in 2018, played in all 82 games last season for the first time in eight years. Ovechkin led the Capitals in goals (32), points (64), shots on goal (244) and shot attempts (542). Ovechkin has led the Capitals in goals in each of his 21 seasons, by far the most of any player for a single team in League history.

It was also the 15th time Ovechkin has finished a regular season as the Capitals’ leading point scorer (tied or outright) in his career; the only players who have been one team’s point leader more often are Gordie Howe (17 with Detroit Red Wings) and Sidney Crosby (16 with Pittsburgh Penguins). If Ovechkin scores at least 20 goals again this season, he would tie Howe for the most 20-goal seasons (22) in history; he already has NHL records in 30-goal seasons (20) and 40-goal seasons (14).

Although the Capitals missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2026, Ovechkin has made the postseason in 16 of his 21 NHL seasons and has a revamped supporting cast for what could be his final season. Even at 40 years old, Ovechkin is still among the most robust offensive players in terms of advanced shot metrics (percentile rankings among forwards from last season listed below):

• Hardest shot: 97.30 mph (99th percentile; eighth among forwards)
• Average shot speed: 61.84 mph (94th percentile)
• High-danger shots on goal: 61 (86th percentile)
• High-danger goals: 14 (87th percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 108 (99th percentile; tied for sixth at position)
• Midrange goals: 9 (89th percentile)
• Long-range shots on goal: 42 (99th percentile; third at position)
• Long-range goals: 3 (97th percentile; tied for 10th at position

2. Tuch, Kyrou, Jenner additions

The Capitals’ offseason makeover began in late June with separate trades for forwards Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou. Tuch ranked in the 95th percentile among forwards in high-danger goals (18) last season after ranking in the 96th percentile in that category two seasons ago (19 in 2024-25). Kyrou, meanwhile, ranked in the 95th percentile among forwards in midrange shots on goal (82) last season.

When Kyrou scored 36 goals with St. Louis in 2024-25, he ranked among the NHL’s top 10 in both midrange shots on goal (111; tied for sixth) and midrange goals (16; tied for seventh). During the 2022-23 season, when Kyrou scored career-high 37 goals with Blues, he ranked fourth in the entire League in midrange goals (20). Tuch and Kyrou should help improve Washington’s power play, which is coming off a down season (17.8; 25th out of 32 teams).

Tuch and Kyrou bring plenty of speed to Washington's offense; Tuch ranked highly among forwards in max skating speed during the 2026 postseason (22.82 mph; 87th percentile), while Kyrou was a standout at his position in that category this regular season (23.04 mph; 86th percentile). Kyrou ranked highly among forwards in 20-plus mph speed bursts last season (142; 85th percentile), and Tuch was close behind in that category (137; 83rd percentile).

Washington also signed versatile forward Boone Jenner as a free agent July 1. Jenner, who ranked in the 85th percentile among forwards in hardest shot (90.27 mph) with the Columbus Blue Jackets last season, also finished in the 91st percentile at his position in long-range shots on goal (20) and 79th percentile in midrange shots on goal (44). The 33-year-old has ranked in the 92nd percentile or higher among forwards in high-danger goals in three of the past five seasons; 17 in 2023-24 (92nd percentile), 17 in 2022-23 (92nd percentile) and 19 in 2021-22 (95th percentile).

3. Elite play of Chychrun, Thompson

Jakob Chychrun led NHL defensemen with 26 goals last season, the most for a Capitals player at the position since Mike Green (31 in 2008-09). Over the past two regular seasons combined, Chychrun leads all defensemen in both midrange goals (26) and game-winning goals (14). Over that same span (since joining Capitals in 2024-25), Chychrun also ranks second at his position in both goals (46) and power-play goals (13) and fifth in shots on goal (400).

The Capitals also have one of the NHL’s elite goalies in Logan Thompson, who ranks fifth in the NHL in wins (62) since joining Washington in 2024-25. He was tied for fourth in wins (31-21-6 record) last season, tied for third in save percentage (.912) and ranked fourth in goals-against average (2.44; minimum 30 games played).

Thompson led the NHL in 5-on-5 close save percentage (.938; when game is tied in first or second period or within one goal in third period) last season and was tied for second in quality starts (35; starts with greater than .900 save percentage). Thompson also ranked highly last season in midrange save percentage (.919; fourth) and 5-on-5 save percentage (.923; seventh).

4. New wave of young talent

Washington’s top prospect is Cole Hutson, brother of 2025 Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson of the Montreal Canadiens. Cole Hutson had 10 points (three goals seven assists) and six power-play points in 14 games with the Capitals last season and remains rookie eligible, making him a top contender for the Calder Trophy in 2026-27.

Hutson ranked in the 91st percentile among defensemen in max skating speed (22.94 mph) and had 13 speed bursts of 20-plus mph and two bursts of 22-plus mph during his late-season NHL trial. Considering Hutson ranked in the 80th percentile in 22-plus mph speed bursts despite such limited NHL action indicates he’s likely to rank among the top 10 over a full season.

The Capitals also have a touted forward prospect in Ilya Protas, who had four points (one goal, three assists) in four games last season; the 6-foot-6, 225-pound forward played mostly on a massive, physical line with his brother Aliaksei Protas (6-foot-6, 250 pounds) and Tom Wilson (6-foot-4, 225 pounds). Four of Ilya Protas’ seven shots on goal came from midrange zones, and his one goal was a high-danger goal.

Another young standout in Washington’s top-nine forward group is Ryan Leonard, who had 45 points (20 goals, 25 assists) as a rookie last season. Leonard ranked sixth in the entire NHL in max skating speed (24.26 mph) last season and was a standout among forwards in hardest shot (93.94 mph; 95th percentile), average shot speed (62.86 mph; 95th percentile), long-range shots on goal (26; 95th percentile), midrange shots on goal (68; 90th percentile), midrange goals (nine; 89th percentile) and 22-plus mph speed bursts (11; 91st percentile).

5. Other physical scorers

In addition to Ovechkin and Jenner, Wilson remains in his prime after consecutive 30-goal seasons. Over the past two seasons combined, Wilson is the only player in the NHL with at least 60 goals (63) and 300 hits (412). Wilson is one of the NHL's most unique power forwards in terms of advanced stats, ranking among the forward leaders in high-danger shots on goal (73; 93rd percentile), high-danger goals (16; 92nd percentile), hardest shot (91.20 mph; 88th percentile) and 20-plus mph speed bursts (162; 88th). Wilson was also an important member of the Capitals’ 2018 championship run with 15 points (five goals, 10 assists) and 100 hits (led NHL) in 21 games that postseason.

In addition to Washington’s returning hits leaders in Wilson (179) and Ovechkin (134), the team had two of its secondary offensive contributors in Leonard (124 hits in 75 games) and Justin Sourdif (98 in 78 games) cover that category. The Capitals add even more physicality in Jenner (147 hits in 67 games) to either round out their top nine or play a significant role on their fourth line this season.

Washington’s forward depth is comparable to both the defending Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes and also the Florida Panthers, who won back-to-back championships in 2024 and 2025 and acquired forward Brady Tkachuk this offseason. The Capitals have a more solidified No. 1 goalie compared to those teams, and, with improved special teams, could give Ovechkin a chance to finish his career with another Stanley Cup title.