Looking at the Stanley Cup Final from a press box perspective, both the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights probably believe that if they continue to stick with their identities and their game plans, the games will fall their way.
It's super tight. It’s close. Each of the three games was decided by one goal and could have gone either way, so I think the Hurricanes and coach Rod Brind’Amour can be confident that if they keep playing their way, they're going to push the games in their favor.
The Golden Knights and coach John Tortorella should be a little more confident that if they play these games out the way they've been played, they're going to have their opportunity to have success.
I would be more concerned if I was Carolina, because repeatedly in the first three games Vegas has shown the ability to, call it what you want -- transition, counterpunch -- deal with the Hurricanes’ full-court pressure. Playing more "direct" (Tortorella's words from behind the bench in Game 3) has continued to produce plays behind the pressure from Carolina.
Mark Stone might be better at that than Mitch Marner, who scored three goals for Vegas in Game 3. Stone has been capable of getting behind the pressure of Carolina’s defensemen being up and pinching. Stone’s overturned goal in Game 3 (the play was offside) in the second period Saturday was an example of this.
It's not a secret when the defensemen are active and pressure down, you can get a turnover and transition. Marner has been exceptional at exploiting these opportunities.
On the breakaway that led to his second goal in Game 3, the Hurricanes’ defenseman was active through the zone, the puck gets shot and it gets fronted by a Golden Knights defenseman and Marner is gone. He did it at least twice, and that’s by design.
Vegas has had the most success at this in the second period. You’re more exposed in the second because of the long change, which means longer shifts and a longer change for the defensemen. It can be the best time to catch teams when they're tired and in a pressure situation.
Even in the third period, the Golden Knights still had those opportunities. Marner had the short-handed breakaway and penalty shot. Stone had another breakaway opportunity. They were still getting those chances.
I think the conversation Tortorella had with his team during the television timeout in Game 1 was the most telling. He said, “Stay patient. We’ll get our opportunities. We’ll get our opportunities.’ I think they will continue to have them.
Although Carolina came back to score four goals later in the third on Saturday, Vegas seemed to take over the tone of the game earlier in the period. The Golden Knights had massive opportunities but didn't score.
It didn't look good for the Hurricanes for the first five or six minutes of that third period; their energy went down, their play went down. That isn’t what we normally see from them.
But the goal from Jordan Martinook gave Carolina a spark. Then, Taylor Hall and Jordan Staal scored, and they had three quick ones in a minute. After the third goal, we saw a pretty electric game from both teams.
Brandon Bussi made some big saves after replacing Frederik Andersen in goal to start the third period, so the question ahead of Game 4 is whether Brind’Amour will change goalies. I think they’re past the point of making a switch.
Andersen played three great series to get them to the Cup Final. Obviously, more goals have gone in during this series, but they haven't been bad goals per se; the Golden Knights had some high qualities chances and scored some really good goals. I'd be more concerned about the chances that I am giving up.
We had a similar situation with the Penguins in the 2009 Cup Final against the Red Wings. Marc-Andre Fleury was our guy. He lost 5-0 in Game 5, but there was no question I was going back to him in Game 6. He won the next two games 2-1 and we won the Stanley Cup.
The only question is, Bussi won 31 games for you during the regular season and played really well in the third period and overtime. That’s the only question outsiders are having for the Hurricanes, but I would bet they're going back with Andersen.
Will Carolina's identity or Vegas’ game plan prevail? It has made for three epic games so far, and it looks like it might take seven to decide.
