Tweetmail No. 196: Point Projections, Preseason Games & Breaking Through

Hello and welcome to Tweetmail, a weekly feature on CarolinaHurricanes.com in which I take your Twitter questions about the Carolina Hurricanes or other assorted topics and answer them in mailbag form. Hopefully the final product is insightful to some degree, and maybe we have some fun along the way.
Let's get to it.

Great question! Enter: analytics.
Translation factors help estimate how players' scoring rates will change as they come to the NHL from other leagues. It's a simple equation that takes a player's scoring rate from the previous season and multiplies it by a factor that's mathematically derived from a heap of historical data.

, a hockey statistician who pens columns for both NHL.com and ESPN, explains translation factors in more detail
here
, and his most recent translation factors are below.

Still with me? Let's go.
Taking these numbers, we can look at projected (this is very important to consider) point totals for Valentin Zykov, Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas.
Points in the American Hockey League translate at a 0.486 factor (and this number has been calculated using a great deal of data, considering the number of players who have progressed from the AHL to the NHL). In 2017-18, Zykov totaled 54 points in 63 games with Charlotte, a scoring clip of 0.857 points per game. Multiplying that by the translation factor, we get a scoring rate of 0.417 in the NHL. Over the course of an 82-game season, that would equate to 34 points.
Points in the Ontario Hockey League translate at a 0.323 factor. In 2017-18, Svechnikov recorded 72 points in 44 games with Barrie, a scoring rate of 1.636 points per game. Multiplying that by the translation factor, we get a scoring rate of 0.529 in the NHL. Over the course of an 82-game season, that would equate to 43 points.
Translation factors from the Czech Extraliga are tougher to assemble. Vollman does not provide an era-adjusted translation factor (as seen above for both the AHL and OHL), but based on an extremely small sample size, he calculated a 0.457 factor that we'll use for the purposes of answering this question. In 2017-18, Necas totaled 17 points in 24 games with HC Kometa Brno, a scoring clip of 0.708 points per game. Multiplying that by the rough translation factor, we get a scoring rate of 0.324 in the NHL. Over the course of an 82-game season, that would equate to nearly 27 points.
What to make of these projections? Well, for starters, they're just that: projections. So many variables can affect a player's point totals in a given season, but this at least provides us a rough road map.
Zykov's projection might be about right over a full season. Svechnikov's total is also probably in the wheelhouse: somewhere in the 40-50 point range. Though, if Svechnikov came in and blew the doors off like Patrik Laine did in his rookie season, that'd be cool, too.
The one projection that seems a bit off is Necas, but that makes sense given the extremely limited data from players who jump from Czech directly to the NHL. I'd expect Necas to be much closer to the 40-50 point range than 20-30, but we'll see.
This was a fun exercise! Hopefully it all made sense. And hopefully my math is correct. I'm sure someone will yell at me if it's not.

It varies from game to game, but as the numbers in training camp begin to dwindle, the closer the lineup becomes to what you'll see on Opening Night.
The preseason begins with a back-to-back, home-and-home against Tampa Bay. That early in camp, I'd expect to see almost two completely different lineups, a split squad-type scenario. By the fifth (Friday, Sept. 28 at Washington) and sixth (Sunday, Sept. 30 vs. Nashville) games of the preseason, you'll likely see a close-to-final lineup. There will be a handful of guys that get one last chance to make an impression on the coaching staff, but the bulk of the lineup should be somewhat familiar.

A few names up front intrigue me: Zykov, Warren Foegele and Lucas Wallmark.
The Canes re-signed Zykov to a two-year contract in late June, and it's a one-way deal. Of the players who spent the majority of last season in Charlotte, he's probably the most likely to make the jump to the big club this year, especially if Jeff Skinner gets moved, which would open up a spot on the left wing.
It was an extremely small sample size, but Foegele was impressive in his two-game stint with the Hurricanes late last season. Based on the depth chart, Foegele's probably got his work cut out for him coming into camp this September, but if he can build on what he accomplished in his first professional season, he could give himself a fair shot at cracking the Opening Night lineup.
The Canes re-signed Wallmark to a two-year contract in mid-July; it's a two-way deal in 2018-19, followed by a one-way deal in 2019-20. Depending how head coach Rod Brind'Amour wants to fill out his lineup down the middle, Wallmark could be in consideration for the fourth-line center slot. That will be something to watch play out in training camp.
A few months ago, I would have said a player like Trevor Carrick would perhaps make a push in camp to earn a spot on the team's blue line, but with the moves the Canes have and haven't made, it's a crowded situation; Justin Faulk is potentially a third-pairing defenseman, and Haydn Fleury, who played 67 games in his rookie season, is going to have to fight to crack the top six.

I'd be foolish to say no to something like that.

I had a blast filming the above video with Calvin de Haan out at Lynnwood Brewing Concern, and hopefully you all enjoyed it. He's a great personality and a perfect addition to the room, and I think you all will really enjoy having him in Raleigh.

Maybe, but that's why there's #Tweetmail!
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