NHL EDGE stats: Tkachuk trade reopens Panthers’ Stanley Cup window

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at three underlying reasons Brady Tkachuk could make the Florida Panthers a Stanley Cup contender again.

1. High-danger shots on goal

Brady Tkachuk was traded to the Florida Panthers from the Ottawa Senators on June 21, where he will join forces with his brother Matthew Tkachuk. The Panthers, who missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season because of multiple key injuries, most notably captain Aleksander Barkov missing the entire season, have won the championship in two of the past three seasons and are now one of the front-runners again after the trade. Over the past five seasons combined (since 2021-22), Brady Tkachuk is the only player in the NHL with 300 points (338), 1,000 shots on goal (1,509) and 800 hits (1,196).

Brady Tkachuk has dominated high-danger areas of the ice through the years; since the start of the puck and player tracking era (2021-22), he ranks third in high-danger shots on goal (639) behind Zach Hyman of the Edmonton Oilers (725) and John Tavares of the Toronto Maple Leafs (654). Brady Tkachuk’s best seasons in terms of high-danger shots on goal were when he finished second in 2022-23 (171), second in 2021-22 (135) and tied for third in 2024-25 (114). Tkachuk scored 11 of his 22 goals from high-danger zones this regular season with the Senators, and his best season in terms of high-danger goals came in 2023-24 (23; tied for seventh).

Matthew Tkachuk, meanwhile, has dealt with injuries in each of the past two seasons but ranked among the NHL’s top 10 in high-danger shots on goal in each of his first two seasons with the Panthers (fifth in 2022-23, ninth in 2023-24). Florida now has three of the top goal-scorers from high-danger zones during the puck and player tracking era: Sam Reinhart is seventh (108), Brady Tkachuk is 14th (92), Matthew Tkachuk is tied for 15th (91). Reinhart finished second in high-danger goals in 2023-24 (35), and Matthew Tkachuk was tied for third in that category in 2022-23 (31).

Brady Tkachuk is also one of two players with at least 500 high-danger shots on goal, 400 midrange shots on goal (408) and 100 long-range shots on goal (134) over the past five seasons combined; the other is Auston Matthews of the Maple Leafs. Over the past five seasons combined, Matthew Tkachuk (32; tied for fifth) and Brady Tkachuk (31; tied for eighth) both rank among the NHL’s top 10 in goals by tips and deflections. Reinhart is also tied with Matthew Tkachuk for fifth in that category. Brady Tkachuk’s elite category coverage and the Tkachuk brothers’ net-front prowess will bring a rare dynamic to an already championship-caliber roster.

2. Shot speed

Brady Tkachuk consistently ranks highly among forwards in shot speed. This regular season, his hardest shot ranked in the 90th percentile at the position (92.28 mph). His hardest shot since the start of the puck and player tracking era came in 2023-24 (96.97 mph; 96th percentile among forwards), and he also ranked in the 92nd percentile at the position in 2024-25 (93.10). Matthew Tkachuk’s hardest shot of the puck and player tracking era, for comparison’s sake, was 92.66 mph during the 2024 postseason.

He has also ranked in the 90th percentile or higher among forwards in 80-90 mph shot attempts during all five seasons of the puck and player tracking era. The Panthers, prior to landing Brady Tkachuk, ranked last in the NHL in average shot speed (56.17 mph) this regular season and have added a new dimension to go along with their existing bounce-back potential when healthy.

3. Offensive zone time percentage

Brady Tkachuk ranked third in the entire NHL in offensive zone time percentage, the percentage of time that the puck spends in the offensive zone while the game clock is running, this regular season (48.6). He also ranked highly among forwards in that category during the 2024-25 (46.1; 93rd percentile) and 2022-23 (46.0; 90th percentile) seasons. In terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage, Brady Tkachuk is tied for 18th among forwards since 2022-23 (55.5; minimum of 250 games).

The Senators ranked second in offensive zone time percentage (43.4) and fifth in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage this regular season (52.6). Brady Tkachuk now joins another strong possession team in Florida, which ranked fifth in offensive zone time percentage (42.2) and ninth in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (51.9) this regular season despite missing the playoffs. The Panthers ranked second in both categories during the 2024-25 season, when they won their second of back-to-back championships. Florida has ranked in the top five of offensive zone time percentage in all five seasons of the puck and player tracking era.

Matthew Tkachuk, meanwhile, is also one of the League’s top forwards in offensive zone time percentage; although he was limited to 31 games because of injury, he ranked 97th percentile in offensive zone time percentage this regular season (47.4). He was also in the 97th percentile of that category in 2024-25 (47.5). Barkov, another standout in offensive zone time percentage (48.0 in 2024-25 was ninth among forwards; 48.5 in 2023-24 was 10th in entire NHL), is expected to be ready for the start of next season after playing in the 2026 IIHF World Championship and winning the gold medal with Finland (11 points in 10 games).

Although the Carolina Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup this season, the Panthers defeated them in the Eastern Conference Final during the 2025 and 2023 postseasons (winning eight of nine games in those series combined). With the addition of Brady Tkachuk, Florida is arguably the front-runner again to come out of the East and potentially reach their fourth Stanley Cup Final in a five-season span, something that hasn’t been done since the Oilers from 1984 to 1988.