Dobes vs. Andersen goalie matchup in Eastern Conference Final

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, NHL.com charted 100 goals against each goaltender late in the regular season and all this postseason’s goals to see what patterns emerge.

The Eastern Conference Final between the Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes features two goalies on opposite ends of their NHL careers.

Carolina veteran Frederik Andersen left little doubt he was the right choice by coach Rod Brind’Amour to start ahead of first-year revelation Brandon Bussi by allowing 10 goals over back-to-back sweeps that should leave the 36-year-old fresher for his attempt to reach the Stanley Cup Final.

Jakub Dobes has endured some ups and downs to get to the conference final in his first try after the 24-year-old got the nod over Jacob Fowler following a strong finish to his rookie season, handling the pressure and emotion of two Game 7 wins, including against two-time Cup winner Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round.

Their sizes are similar, but their styles are not and how well each team identifies and targets those unique tendencies could help determine the winner of this best-of-7 series.

Jakub Dobes

Montreal Canadiens

After some ups and downs early in the season, Dobes went 11-5-0 with a .916 save percentage that ranked third after the 2026 Winter Olympics in February. He has a .910 save percentage through two playoff rounds and 14 games, making tough saves in big moments and continuing to pick his spots wisely -- and more judiciously than earlier in the season -- when it comes to aggression.

Low glove? Goal totals do not represent save percentage, but it’s hard to ignore the highest regular-season number under the glove of Dobes, even if that trend hasn’t been prevalent in the playoffs. The regular-season total was more than double the 10.4 percent tracked average and Dobes uses a modern “fingers-up” glove position, with the hand turned up almost like you’re motioning for someone to stop, so it takes time to turn that glove down over the pad and doesn’t always look like a natural motion. It is something shooters are taught to look for and target with lower shots, but the reality is only five of those 24 goals came on clean looks, one of those was a breakaway, and all were earlier in the season when he was pushing his glove out at low shots more than tracking into them. It’s also worth noting only one of four clean-look goals in the first round went in under the glove -- Dominic James keeping the puck on a 2-on-1 and snapping a short-side wrist shot under the glove to tie Game 5 -- and Tampa Bay targeted high glove more often when it had those chances. Buffalo had more low glove shots than high and only scored one goal under the glove compare to four over it, but the lone goal was on a Jack Quinn against-the-grain one-timer from above the top of the face-off circle that gave the Sabres the lead for good in Game 6, the kind of goal that could lead to the Hurricanes targeting it even more. It also beats the alternative of shooting right into that high, fingers-up glove position like Buffalo forward Alex Tuch did from in close in the second period of Game 7.

Beware long limbs: Trying to convert second chances, or even cross-ice passes below the hash marks, along the ice give Dobes a chance to use his athleticism and long limbs to make a momentum-changing save. There were several against the Lightning on second chance plays in tight and against the Sabres off cross-ice chances off the rush, including a fully extended robbery against Tage Thompson in Game 7. It’s important to get those chances above the pad even when Dobes appears to be out of the play, including nine goals off broken plays and bounces in the regular season that still required elevation, and given how well he uses his Gumby-like flexibility to build vertical coverage with his hands reaching over those pads even while stretched out, the top half of the net is safer still.

Traffic-proof? Maybe not. Dobes excelled against screens during the season, combining his size with a tall, narrow stance to see over traffic rather than looking back and forth around it from a lower stance. The Lightning scored three screened goals, however, and the Sabres added six in the second round, meaning traffic has played a role in nine postseason goals so far (25 percent), above the 15.1 percent average. Dobes can get caught in transition from that high stance into his lower-save stance, making quick shots and one-timers, which were a factor on 32 goals, an effective tactic even from the perimeter. But the key on three of Buffalo’s screen goals was getting into shooting areas below the top of the circles that got him into that lower-save stance and forced him to pick a side looking around traffic rather than over it before shooting to the other side of that traffic.

Against the grain: Shots against the flow of play accounted for 20 percent of regular-season goals, including a lot on clean looks, and a tendency to reach and push at low shots in a way that pulls his torso away from the puck played on role on low-blocker shots. There were five against-the-grain goals in the first round and five more in the second round, but they included passes that crossed the middle of the ice twice and were more about good plays that forced him to move back and forth and less about clean shots.

East-west down low: Dobes has quieted the east-west positional aggression that used to leave him stranded outside his posts laterally at times but Tampa Bay created a few such chances in the first round with wide net drive and shots off the end boards, and eight of 10 goals off passes across the middle of the ice came below the hash marks. Plays and shots from behind the net and below the face-off circles were a factor on 20 percent of regular-season goals, close to the 18.4 percent average, but five of 15 in the first round and five of 21 in the second round, a 27.8 percent total, and the Lightning twice caught him with quick passes the other way as he shifted down into his post play coverage. Even off great lateral passes, it’s important to finish with shots to the edges of the net, otherwise his incredible length and compete gives Dobes a chance to make a momentum-changing save.

Frederik Andersen

Carolina Hurricanes

Brind’Amour indicated before the playoffs he could use both his goalies after Bussi’s breakout led to split starts most of the season, but Andersen made sure there was no need with a .950 save percentage while sweeping the Ottawa Senators in the first round and the Philadelphia Flyers in the second round. It’s hard to see a switch now, with fatigue less of an issue for Andersen after 12 days and Bussi more than a month removed from a start. If it came to pass, Bussi’s aggressive, unpredictable approach would provide a very different look for Montreal’s shooters, but so far Andersen’s more controlled, conservative game is all Carolina needs.

Work down low: Andersen gave up 22 goals on plays and passes across the middle of the ice, which is slightly below the 22.1 percent average for the over 10,000 goals tracked for this project since 2017, but 16 came below the hash marks. That includes some of the 23 goals on plays from below the goal line or bottom of the face-off circles, well above the 17.1 percent tracked average and two trends that stress the importance of attacking him from down low. It’s a trend that has continued in the playoffs so far, with three of five goals in the first round coming off plays that forced him to work into -- and off -- his posts, including his only clean shot goal of the series on a rush shot off the right wing by Dylan Cozens from just above the bottom of the circles that appeared to catch him preparing to transition into his post and ended up going under the pads. There were two more off passes from behind the net in the second round against Philadelphia -- one by Sean Couturier in Game 2, and another by Alex Bump in Game 4. Poor coverage played a role, but that means half the playoffs goals so far have come off sharp-angle plays and low-high passes.

Breakaway dekes: Andersen gave up 21 “breakaway” goals in the regular season sample of 100 goals. That includes partial breakaway and even some 1-on-1 chances in zone, but it’s more than double the 10.2 percent average for over 10,000 goals tracked. Clearly some of that is the Hurricanes giving up 71 such chances on Andersen, third-most in the NHL, but there are trends worth noting. The obvious shooting targets are high glove (six goals), especially since he uses a lower “handshake” glove position, but Andersen does a nice job of matching speed on long breakaways and forcing players to deke if they want to score. Dekes accounted for 13 of those 21 goals, and only two of those were put back between the five-hole, with the rest stretching him out wide. The Senators only got part of that memo in the first round, evidently; Ottawa tried to finish all five 1-on-1 chances with dekes between Andersen’s shorter-than-most pads and failed to convert on any of them. The Flyers also failed on three in-tight moves to the 5-hole, and Travis Konecny tried to shoot on the blocked side on the only two clear-cut breakaways with time and space, with Andersen getting a piece of each.

Back the other way: Against-the-grain shots accounted for 34.5 percent of last season’s tracked goals. The total was down to 28 percent this season, but that’s still well above the 18.5 percent average. There was only one such goal against Philadelphia, and it came on Bump’s shot after the pass from behind the net, but two of five goals in the first round were off against-the-grain chances. Off the rush, Andersen can get a little flat with his backwards flow at times, which leaves the back shoulder off angle as shooters get deeper into the zone, something that can be exacerbated by his conservative depth. Add in a tendency to hold his blocker lower, and it’s not a shock four of five clean goals were high to that side coming down the opposite wing. It is also possible to catch him moving, with a tendency to slide a bit more than many peers on passes to the face-off dots and below that leaves him susceptible to quick plays and passes back in the other direction.

Blocker side or 5-hole? Seeing four playoff goals over the blocker might raise an eyebrow, especially with the above-mentioned lower blocker position and after Jamie Drysdale beat him over the blocker on an open look in Game 2. But it wasn’t as though the Senators were targeting that side with their clean looks in the first round, even if some of the regular-season tracking suggests it might be a good idea, and the Flyers also had a balanced shooting chart, scoring twice over the glove and another two between the pads. That included one on a low-high one-timer and another through traffic that took advantage of how patiently Andersen holds his edges in an elevated stance behind screens.

Elevate on low laterals: Andersen sometimes squares up on rush chances and plays out of the corner in a way that increases the rotation and distance required to push across on passes across the middle of the ice. But for the most part he uses good play reading and neutral positioning to give himself a chance to at least get his backside pad across, making it important to elevate quick shots on the other end of those low plays.