Team Sweden goalie breakdown for Milano Cortina Olympics

Goaltending will be an integral part of the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026. To provide insight into the strengths and weaknesses of each country’s goalies, we have borrowed a project from the Stanley Cup Playoffs and charted goals against by some of the goaltenders we will see in this tournament. Doing so allows us to see what patterns emerge that might be targeted and what areas should be avoided.

Today, Team Sweden, which plays its first game of the tournament against Team Italy on Wednesday (3:10 p.m. ET; Peacock, USA, CBC Gem, SN, CBC).

Filip Gustavsson

As the only Swedish goalie returning from the 4 Nations Face-Off, Gustavsson is the presumed starter, so we looked at all 94 goals he has allowed this season. Gustavsson has re-establishing himself as the Minnesota Wild No.1 by going 18-3-5 with a .913 save percentage since Nov. 1 following a slow start that led to stretches of alternating starts with Team Sweden teammate Jesper Wallstedt.

Get bodies to the net front: It feels cliched to talk about traffic and taking the eyes away from a good goalie, but there aren’t a lot of obvious statistical weaknesses in Gustavsson’s game, which matches the eye test that presents a balanced, technically strong approach that does not include a lot of extremes. The one exception this season has been on broken plays, bounces and scrambles around his crease, which account for 27 of the 94 goals (28.7 percent) he’s given up so far this season, more than double the 14-percent average for the more than 8,500 goals tracked for this project since 2017. Some of that may be the second-chance defending in front of him, but a tendency to slide rather than shift into longer shots with traffic can create more rebounds, which were a primary factor on 11 goals, and scramble situations that catch him in motion, contributing to the higher-than-expected goal totals along the ice on each side.

Wait for the slide on laterals: Gustavsson is again having relative success against lateral attacks this season, with 20 goals (21.2 percent) on passes or plays across the middle of the ice, which was slightly better than the 22.1 percent tracked average. But there were a couple notable trends among those goals, including the continued tendency to slide side-to-side on his knees on plays near the top of the circles, which can delay his ability go back the other way on quick passes or shots against the grain because he has to first grab a skate edge to stop the slide.

Stretch him wide: Gustavsson also has a tendency to push across a bit flat on downhill lateral passes from higher in the zone, taking him more toward the edge of his crease rather than back into his post. That’s great for cutting off pucks into the slot, it can leave him susceptible inside that far post if the play stretches wider. Similarly, a tendency to square up on threats down the wing deeper into the zone makes for a longer path and more difficult rotation on laterals back to the far post, another factor in all those goals along the ice outside his pads, including 12 backdoor tap-ins.

High glove or five-hole? The glove-side high (17) and five-hole (16) totals stand out on the goal chart but the glove results are actually better than historical averages of this project, and Gustavsson has cut the clean-look goals compared to this time last season from 14 to six, perhaps as a result of appearing to hold his fingers-up glove positioning more patiently rather than dropping it as a first move. The five-hole totals do stand out as well above the tracked average of 9.9 percent, but there isn’t a contributing-chance factor that jumps out as a key outside of the above-mentioned broken plays (seven). It may be worth trying quick shots between the pads in one-on-one situations, however, as three partial-break goals were scored five-hole and a tendency to pull his heels back as he drops on those can create exposure.

Jacob Markstrom

Markstrom is having a down season statistically with the New Jersey Devils, highlighted by a .882 save percentage that is well below his .907 career average, so we limited this to the past 50 goals. But his numbers have been skewed by a couple of bad games, including a 9-0 loss at the New York Islanders on Jan. 6, and the 36-year-old brings plenty of NHL and international experience to his first Olympics.

High Glove? The 12 goals over the glove certainly jump out on the goal chart, but five came in the above-mentioned 9-0 loss to the Islanders, which featured a lot of time and space in great positions for shooters and was included in this relatively small sample of tracking. Markstrom’s career numbers have typically been good high on the glove side but below average under the glove and just over the pad, and that continues with 14 percent in this sample compared to a 10.9-percent average. If nothing else, it probably makes sense to target the glove side, which produced three of the four clean-shot goals against Markstrom in this sample, rather than his blocker, which has produced better-than-average numbers high and low.

Catch him in transition to create second chances: Rebounds were the primary factor on nine of the 50 goals (18 percent), above the 11.7 percent tracked average, and a number were generated by quick, low shots from the perimeter. Markstrom uses his 6-foot-6 height to look over traffic effectively when play is higher in the zone but a sudden transition from his tall, narrow stance to a lower, wider save stance seems to create less controlled saves off low shots and more second chances off rebounds in tight. It was a tendency that also used to affect low danger goals against Markstrom off the rush, with an abrupt transition into the lower stance leaving him exposed on longer shots against the grain and just over the pads. That hasn’t seemed as prevalent this season as he gets into his save stance sooner.

Make him move unpredictably: Markstrom remains explosively athletic for his size, but that’s a big frame to move around the crease and the momentum involved creates counterrotation as he loads for pushes, opening holes during in-tight scrambles, with broken-play bounces off legs and sticks leading directly to 12 goals.

Jesper Wallstedt

Like Markstrom, we only tracked the last 50 goals against Wallstedt, especially after a sizzling 8-0-2 start to the season, including a .944 save percentage, faded the past two months, going 6-5-2 with a .891 save percentage since Dec. 6. Still, the 23-year-old rookie proved capable against the best, and if he gets into the Olympics, limited experience could also make for a less-detailed scouting report.

Glove side: Like Markstrom, the discrepancy on the glove side stands out but the reality is these numbers do not represent a save percentage or speak to the quality of chances directed there compared to the blocker. There is also nothing about Wallstedt’s mechanics, including a neutral handshake glove position, that stands out. It should also be pointed out his 11 high-glove (22 percent) goals are slightly below the tracked average (22.5 percent) but nine low-glove goals (18 percent) is above the 10.9 percent tracked average and the fact five of seven clean-shot goals (also above the 4 percent tracked average) were scored glove side makes it harder to ignore, even if several were from good scoring areas in the high slot.

Lateral and quick: Plays and passes across the middle of the ice increase the odds of scoring on any goalie but 15 east-west goals in Wallstedt’s 50-goal sample (30 percent) is above the 22.1 percent average. There are times his slight positional aggression -- it is not extreme, but he gets outside his crease both vertically and to the sides at a time when many NHL goalies are pulling themselves back inside the blue ice -- leaves Wallstedt extra distance to cover on cross-ice movements and puts him behind or still moving on quick shots from the other side.

Five-hole: Nine goals (18 percent) between the pads is also well above the 9.9 percent tracked average. Ironically, it may be related to something many would consider a strength of Wallstedt’s well-balanced game: beating lateral plays up on his skates rather than coming across on his knees in a butterfly slide. Quick, low, against-the-grain shots and redirection back into him can get through before that ice is sealed and a tendency to reach with the lead pad before shifting his weight onto that knee can delay that seal on bang-bang plays in tight.