Team USA goalie breakdown for Milano Cortina Olympics

Goaltending will be an integral part of the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026. To provide insight into the strengths and weaknesses of each country's goalies, we have borrowed a project from the Stanley Cup Playoffs and charted goals against by some of the goaltenders we will see in this tournament. Doing so allows us to see what patterns emerge that might be targeted and what areas should be avoided.

First up, Team United States, which plays its first game of the tournament against Team Finland on Thursday (3:10 p.m. ET; Peacock, USA, CBC Gem, SN, CBC).

Connor Hellebuyck

It's a safe bet Hellebuyck will get first crack at the job for Team USA, especially after leading the Americans to the championship game of last season's 4 Nations Face-Off. Despite a down season statistically in 2025-26, including a .900 save percentage which is well below his .917 career average, the 32-year-old is coming off a season in which he won his third Vezina Trophy as the NHL's top goalie and the Hart Trophy as League MVP with the Winnipeg Jets. With that in mind, each of the 100 goals against Hellebuyck this season were tracked and this analysis focuses principally on him.

High glove: This hasn't historically been an issue for Hellebuyck, who holds his glove high in a "fingers-up" position that typically dissuades shooters and allows him to take away that space efficiently. His past regular-season goal charts have typically been more balanced between the glove and blocker side, and his high-glove goal totals have been better than the 22.5 percent average of the more than 8,500 goals tracked for this project since 2017. Clearly that isn't the case this season, and while these numbers don't represent a save percentage, the St. Louis Blues scored 11 goals on 15 high-glove shots in the Western Conference First Round against Hellebuyck last season, so it may be worth watching whether Olympic opponents target it on open looks.

East-west off the rush: Creating lateral plays across the middle of the ice is a good way to score on any goalie and was long considered especially important against Hellebuyck, who is regarded by many as the best in the NHL while facing straight-line attacks. Hellebuyck has improved his results on such plays each of the past two seasons, however, with 21 goals allowed so far this season, still slightly below the tracked average of 22.1 percent. But it's still the best was to attack off the rush, especially considering he only gave up two goals in the slot when a shooter held the puck compared to 13 when a pass was made before shooting; this is indicative of how much better a scoring chance is after making any goalie move laterally, and how great Hellebuyck is reading straight releases, even from close range with time and space.

Traffic and tips: Hellebuyck's incredible ability to read and anticipate plays and shots make it especially important to take away his sightlines. Screens were a primary factor on 18 percent of the goals scored on him this season, slightly above the 15.1 percent tracked average, but were a much bigger part of his past two Stanley Cup Playoff appearances, with 16 of 61 goals (26.2 percent) involving traffic.

Create chaos in front: Generating traffic isn't just about going to the net when a shot is coming. It can also make it harder to see and read passes and beat them to the next spot, all things Hellebuyck does while staying up on his skates as well as anyone. It also leads to more scrambles off pucks that hit legs, sticks and skates before making it to the goalie and Hellebuyck, whose side-to-side movements from his knees have more moving parts and slight delays because he has a slightly narrower butterfly than many of his peers. He has given up 22 goals on those types of scrambles this season, well above the tracked average of 14 percent, and close to the 21.3 percent he's allowed during the past two postseasons.

Left to right in tight: Hellebuyck plays a conversative depth that gives him a chance on even difficult lateral plays, especially with how patiently he holds his feet, gets spread or stretched out and leaves open nets, even on backdoor chances. So it's worth noting that of the 17 times it's led to a goal this season, 11 came when he was forced to move to his right, even if most of them were broken play bounces and rebounds.

Jake Oettinger

With Hellebuyck the likely starter, we limited the breakdown on Dallas Stars goalie Jake Oettinger to the past 50 goals given up this season, even though the 27-year-old has proven himself worthy of big moments with three straight trips to the Western Conference Final.

High-blocker: Like Hellebuyck's high-glove totals this season, the discrepancy in Oettinger's blocker totals don't match historical trends for a goalie this project has tracked in past playoffs. It also doesn't represent a save percentage but at 28 percent, it is well above the historical tracked average of 18.3 percent, and five of his seven clean-look goals were scored high on the blocker side. Oettinger's tendency to get low and wide in his pre-save stance can make it harder to catch up with shots to the blocker side compared to his glove, which he holds in a fingers-up position that allows him better access to high shots even when he gets low to the ice. That glove tendency plays a role in his high-glove goals (14 percent) being well below the 22.5 percent tracked average and his low-glove goals being above (16 percent compared to the 10.9 average), making low-glove just over the pad a better bet on that side.

Early passing, quick shots: One-timers that make it harder for a goalie to get set are always a good idea and accounted for 16 percent of this sample for Oettinger, more than double the tracked average of 7.4 percent. The same thing goes for passes across the middle of the ice, which are at 29 percent compared to the tracked average of 22.1. Combining these trends, it's worth noting that a lot of those goals were on rush chances where passes were made higher in the zone rather than in tight, taking advantage of Oettinger's tendency to get out early and retreat with the rush by catching him with quick shots higher in the zone before he could fully cover off that extra space side-to-side that his depth created.

Low laterals, active rebounds: Attacking from below the bottom of the face-off circles gets Oettinger into that low stance that somewhat limits lateral mobility, and inconsistency in post-integration habits can lead to goals and second chances. However, rebounds will bounce harder and travel further off his Bauer pads.

Jeremy Swayman

Like Oettinger, we only tracked the past 50 goals against Swayman of the Boston Bruins, but after backstopping the United States to its first World Championship since 1933 during the offseason, there's no question the 27-year-old can step in as the starter.

Funnel pucks right: A lot of the goals tracked along the ice, outside of either skate, tend to be the result of backdoor tap-ins on low lateral passes, or rebounds and scrambles that strand a goalie and leave the net empty. Sometimes it happens more on one side than the other simply because of a team's defensive strengths and weaknesses, but the fact so many of those goals occurred to Swayman's right is noticeable. Even though seven were rebounds or broken plays, and four were tap-ins, his tendency to get stuck in his butterfly and reach with the stick on second chances to his right stood out as part of that. Every goalie has a direction in which they move better. For most, it's toward the glove. That appears to include Swayman on recoveries from his knees, so trying to generate second chances to that side could be beneficial.

Get bodies to the net: Swayman's ability to hold his edges and still generate lateral-push power even as he gets into a lower, wider stance has made him one of the NHL's top goalies when it comes to defending the increase in side-to-side attacks. His success against those types of dangerous plays has continued this season, which makes it even more important to try and create offense through chaos, with screens accounting for 20 percent of the tracked goals, well above the 15.1-percent average. Broken plays accounted for another 22 percent, also well above the 14-percent average. Swayman also holds his feet more on sharp-angle plays, which fuels great movement on low-high plays, but might make it worthwhile to shoot a puck to his feet from time to time from down near the goal line to keep him honest and create rebounds.

High from distance: Swayman has similarly exceptional results up high and maintains active forward hands even as he widens out and lowers into his save stance, but of the six clean-look goals from the perimeter (12 percent, well above the 3.7 percent average), four were scored up high.