Fantasy projection for McKenna with Maple Leafs in 2026-27

NHL.com breaks down the fantasy hockey fallout from Gavin McKenna being selected by the Toronto Maple Leafs with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. For more coverage, visit NHL.com/Fantasy.

Fantasy draft range for McKenna

The Toronto Maple Leafs selected forward Gavin McKenna with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, giving him a chance to make an immediate impact alongside the team’s elite offensive talent. McKenna is ranked among NHL.com’s top 100 overall for standard fantasy redraft leagues ahead of his rookie season.

The Maple Leafs missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season for the first time since 2016 and have not won a championship since 1967 but have renewed optimism with the additions of McKenna, defenseman Darren Raddysh (acquired from Tampa Bay Lightning on June 19 after signing eight-year contract) and hiring of new coach Jim Hiller on June 17. 

During his freshman season at Penn State, the 18-year-old McKenna was tied for fifth in the NCAA with 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) in 35 games during the 2025-26 season. McKenna had an outstanding finish with 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 19 games following the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship; McKenna finished second in points at the WJC (14 in seven games) as Canada won the bronze medal.

It’s worth noting McKenna had 18 points in 16 Western Hockey League games for Medicine Hat as a 15-year-old and 97 points in 61 games during his first full season at 16 years old. He also had 173 points over 76 combined regular-season, playoff and Memorial Cup games during the 2024-25 season prior to playing his NCAA season.

McKenna, who will turn 19 years old on Dec. 20, is the second-highest rookie in NHL.com’s fantasy rankings for 2026-27, slightly behind Porter Martone of the Philadelphia Flyers. McKenna is ranked fourth among Maple Leafs skaters in NHL.com’s fantasy rankings and one of six Toronto players in the top 100 overall:

23. Auston Matthews, F
48. William Nylander, F
54. Darren Raddysh, D
79. Gavin McKenna, F
80. John Tavares, F
100. Matthew Knies, F

Martone, the No. 6 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, had 15 points (six goals, nine assists), 55 shots on goal and 49 hits in 19 games this season (regular season and playoffs combined), giving him potentially rare category coverage over a full season.

Read: Fantasy top 200 for 2026-27 | Top 10 rookies

Maple Leafs’ projected lineup with McKenna

McKenna has a chance to fit in nicely on either of Toronto’s first two lines, and Hiller has a chance to try multiple stacked line combinations involving his elite talent. McKenna, whose primary position has been left wing, could earn a spot on the top line with Matthews and Nylander or Tavares and Nylander; Hiller could also opt to play Knies on his opposite wing, continuing his chemistry with Matthews, and have McKenna round out that trio.

McKenna, who scored five power-play goals for Penn State in his freshman season, is also likely to play on Toronto’s first power play with Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and Raddysh.

EDGE stats insights surrounding Maple Leafs

McKenna’s playmaking ability could transform the offensive outlook for Toronto, which finished last in the NHL in two key puck-possession metrics this season: offensive zone time percentage (38.9) and 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (45.5). Per NHL EDGE IQ, the Maple Leafs were also last in the League in “Ice Tilt,” a metric that quantifies territorial momentum based on which team has the advantage (and by what margin) at any given point during game play.

McKenna should also benefit from exposure to Matthews, Nylander and/or Tavares in different situations. Tavares ranked in the NHL’s top 10 in both high-danger goals (22; 10th) and high-danger shots on goal (106; ninth). Nylander also ranked highly among forwards in high-danger goals (20; 97th percentile). Matthews ranked in the 96th percentile among forwards in both high-danger shots on goal (84) and midrange shots on goal (85).

Read: EDGE stats impact of Raddysh trade to TOR

Biggest beneficiary of McKenna addition

Auston Matthews, F

Matthews leads active NHL players in career goals per game (0.62) but is coming off a down year by his standards. Matthews, who was limited to 60 games this regular season, had career lows in goals (27), points (53), power-play points (12), power-play goals (five; tied career low and shooting percentage (11.9; career average: 15.5).

Matthews, along with the entire Maple Leafs offense (16th in goals per game with 3.07; 15th in power-play percentage at 21.3), took a step back after the departure of Mitch Marner (to Vegas Golden Knights) last offseason. But Matthews has serious fantasy bounce-back potential after the additions of McKenna and Raddysh; Matthews, the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NHL Draft, scored 69 goals in 2023-24, the most of any NHL player over the past 30 years (Mario Lemieux had 69 in 1995-96). Matthews can be considered a fringe top 20 overall player in fantasy redraft leagues with bounce-back potential for 2026-27.

Fantasy projection for McKenna in 2026-27: 63 points (22 goals, 41 assists)

The NHL has seen 18-year-old No. 1 picks thrive in each of the past three seasons with forwards Connor Bedard of the Chicago Blackhawks (61 points in 68 games in 2023-24), Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks (63 points in 70 games in 2024-25) and defenseman Matthew Schaefer of the New York Islanders (59 points in 82 games in 2025-26). Each of those players exceeded 20 goals during his rookie season: Bedard had 22 (led his rookie class), Celebrini had 25 (second in class) and Schaefer had 23 (tied for most in class).

The last rookies with 70-plus points in a season were Mathew Barzal in 2017-18 (85 points in 82 games with New York Islanders) and Artemi Panarin in 2015-16 (77 points in 80 games with Blackhawks). The last two teenagers to score 30-plus goals during their rookie seasons were Matthews (40) and Patrik Laine (36) in 2016-17.

While McKenna could be more of a distributor in his first season with Toronto, he had a strong shot volume at Penn State (152 shots on goal in 35 NCAA games; 4.34 per game) and will bring exposure to multiple elite forwards with the Maple Leafs, giving him a similar ceiling to any of the past three No. 1 picks. It’s worth noting Matthews had 69 points in 82 games during his rookie season, a number McKenna could challenge if he makes a smooth transition to the NHL.