NHL EDGE stats 2026-27 season outlook for Dallas Stars

As part of NHL.com's 32 in 32 series, we will identify key NHL EDGE stats for each team to preview the 2026-27 season. Today, we look at three advanced metrics trends surrounding the Dallas Stars:

1. High-danger shots on goal differential

The Dallas Stars have had a consistently strong offense in recent seasons thanks to their advanced shot metrics. They were ninth in goals per game (3.33) last season and have ranked in the top 10 of that category in each of the past four. Dallas led the entire NHL in high-danger goals (157) for a second consecutive season, while ranking third in high-danger shooting percentage (22.6) and eighth in high-danger shots on goal (696). In terms of goals by shot type, the Stars excelled in backhand goals (31; second), snap shot goals (115; fourth in NHL) and tipped/deflected goals (35; seventh).

Dallas also excelled defensively in terms of limiting high-danger opportunities; the Stars allowed the fourth-fewest high-danger shots on goal (574) and second-fewest high-danger goals (100; behind Colorado Avalanche’s 99). In terms of high-danger shots on goal differential, Dallas ranked fourth in the NHL at plus-122. These dominant underlying metrics were key to the Stars ranking fourth in goal differential (plus-51), which includes outscoring their opponents by double-digit margins in each regulation period: plus-11 in the first period (tied for sixth in NHL), plus-32 in the second period (led League) and plus-10 in the third period (11th).

2. Johnston, Robertson’s elite goal-scoring

Stars forwards Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson were the only teammates to each score 45 goals in 2025-26, becoming the first in franchise history to accomplish that feat in the same season. The only other teammates to each score at least 45 goals in the same season over the past 22 years was Connor McDavid (64) and Leon Draisaitl (52) for the Edmonton Oilers in 2022-23.

Johnston and Robertson established themselves as shots-by-location juggernauts last season. Johnston had an NHL-leading 30 high-danger goals, becoming the first Stars player to reach that mark in the puck and player tracking era (since 2021-22), while Robertson was tied for eighth in high-danger goals (23). In terms of high-danger shots on goal, Johnston ranked sixth in the NHL (111), while Robertson was close behind at seventh (108).

They were also elite perimeter goal-scorers, with Johnston scoring 12 mid-range goals (95th percentile among forwards) and Robertson right behind with 11 (94th percentile at position). Robertson, who was tied for third among forwards in long-range goals (four), also ranked in the 97th percentile or higher at the position in both mid-range shots on goal (98) and long-range shots on goal (31).

Two other high-scoring Dallas forwards, Roope Hintz and Mikko Rantanen, were high-danger standouts last season when healthy. Hintz ranked in the 91st percentile among forwards in high-danger shots on goal (70) despite playing only 53 games. Rantanen, who was limited to 64 games, scored 18 of his 22 goals from high-danger areas (95th percentile among forwards).

3. Oettinger’s strong underlying metrics

The Stars allowed the second-fewest 5-on-5 goals last season (138) behind the Avalanche (128). Dallas was tied for fifth in team save percentage (.897) thanks to its strong goalie tandem of Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith, each of whom excelled in saves against perimeter shots. Oettinger was tied for eighth in long-range saves (318) during the regular season and then stopped 36 of 37 long-range shots faced in six postseason games (.973 long-range save percentage). DeSmith, meanwhile, ranked second in long-range save percentage (.989; behind Jake Allen’s .991) and was tied for 10th in mid-range save percentage (.906) last regular season.

Oettinger’s save percentage (.899) during the regular season was far below his career average (.912) entering 2025-26, but his underlying metrics suggest he could rebound this season. The 27-year-old had the ninth-best goal differential (plus-31), was tied for 10th in quality starts (27; starts with greater than .900 save percentage) and ranked just outside the top 10 in 5-on-5 close save percentage (.926; when game is tied in first or second period or within one goal in third period). Oettinger had a 21-3-3 record in those 27 quality starts and was tied for the ninth-best point percentage (.833) in such games. With the Stars being a perennial Stanley Cup contender, any improvement from Oettinger, together with Rantanen and Hintz staying healthy, could make all the difference in their championship pursuit.