NHL EDGE stats for 2026 Stanley Cup Final

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify three underlying stats that could decide the 2026 Stanley Cup Final between the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights.

Watch Game 1 of Stanley Cup Final: Golden Knights at Hurricanes on Tuesday, June 2 (8 p.m. ET; ABC, SN, TVAS, CBC)

1. Hurricanes’ possession dominance

Carolina is a perennial puck-possession juggernaut; this postseason, the Hurricanes lead the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (58.8) and offensive zone time percentage (47.2), two categories that they have dominated in recent regular seasons and playoffs under coach Rod Brind’Amour. The Hurricanes also lead the postseason in takeaways per 60 minutes (5.54).

The Golden Knights, meanwhile, stifled the Colorado Avalanche’s elite offense in the Western Conference Final sweep but are being outshot 29.8 to 27.0 on average this postseason. Below are the 5-on-5 shot attempts percentages for each of Vegas’ first three series this postseason, with two of its opponents holding sizable possession advantages in defeat:

• First round: VGK: 52.0; UTA: 48.0
• Second round: ANA: 55.6; VGK: 44.4
• Conference finals: COL: 55.1; VGK: 44.9

The Stanley Cup Final matchup features some of the top even-strength scorers in the 2026 playoffs: Brett Howden of the Golden Knights and Logan Stankoven of the Hurricanes are tied for the most even-strength goals (seven each), while Carolina forward Taylor Hall quietly leads the entire postseason in even-strength points (14). In terms of offensive zone time percentage, the Hurricanes have the top two skaters this postseason: defensemen Alexander Nikishin (54.0) and Shayne Gostisbehere (53.0). Carolina also has the leaders in 5-on-5 shot attempts differential during the playoffs: Stankoven (plus-111), followed closely by defensemen K'Andre Miller and Sean Walker (plus-110 each).

Hurricanes goalie Frederik Andersen, who’s 12-1 this postseason, leads the NHL in 5-on-5 save percentage (.940) and has the best 5-on-5 close save percentage (.974; when game is tied in first or second period or within one goal in third period) among goalies who have played at least five games. Andersen is 5-0 in overtime games this postseason, stopping all 33 overtime shots faced.

2. Golden Knights’ high-danger goals

Vegas leads the NHL in high-danger goals this postseason (34). Howden and Pavel Dorofeyev are tied for the most goals in the 2026 playoffs (10 each) and also tied for the most high-danger goals (six each; tied with Cole Caufield of Montreal Canadiens), while Mitch Marner is tied for fourth in high-danger goals (five). It’s also worth noting defenseman Shea Theodore, who is tied for the NHL lead at his position in goals this postseason (four), has the most 80-plus mph shot attempts in the entire League (27).

Vegas goalie Carter Hart, who joined the team Dec. 2, leads NHL goalies who advanced past the first round in high-danger save percentage (.873 in 16 games), while Andersen ranks fourth on that list (.857 in 13 games). Hart, who has been arguably the biggest beneficiary of new coach John Tortorella (reunion from 2022-23 with Philadelphia Flyers), ranks second in the playoffs in overall save percentage (.924; behind Andersen’s .931). Hart, who’s now 18-4 under Tortorella (regular season and playoffs combined), has stabilized the position for Vegas, which was tied for fifth worst in team save percentage during the regular season (.879).

NHL EDGE IQ insights: The Golden Knights have the lowest “Projected Goal Rate” (PGR) Against this postseason (4.78 percent), meaning they are allowing the lowest-quality scoring chances compared to other teams this postseason. Vegas also has the highest PGR For during the playoffs (6.62) and, as a result, has the most goals (58) and comeback wins (six) and is 8-0 when leading after two periods.

In each playoff round, Vegas has held its opponent to a below-average PGR:

• First round: UTA had PGR of 4.86 (NHL avg: 5.39)
• Second round: ANA had PGR of 4.67 (NHL avg: 5.89)
• Conference finals: COL had PGR of 4.74 (NHL avg: 5.96)

3. Goals off the rush

Per NHL EDGE IQ, Vegas and Carolina have each scored 16 goals off the rush this postseason, tied for the second most behind the Montreal Canadiens (17). The Hurricanes led the NHL in that category during the regular season (104) and had the second-most inferenced shot attempts off the rush per game (18.77) behind the Anaheim Ducks (19.82). Vegas leads the NHL in goals off the rush (28) since John Tortorella's debut March 30. Goals off the rush are those scored within five seconds of a team crossing the offensive blue line; inferenced shot attempts exclude those taken from outside of 60 feet or beyond the goal line and empty-net situations.

This postseason, Howden leads the NHL in goals off the rush (five). Carolina, meanwhile, has five players who have scored multiple goals off the rush during the playoffs (tied with Montreal for most by any team), led by forwards Nikolaj Ehlers, Taylor Hall and Jackson Blake (three each; tied for second in NHL). Goals scored in transition could be the X-factor of the series considering the teams have similar averages in 20-plus mph speed bursts per game: Carolina is averaging 25.5, while Vegas is averaging 21.4. The fastest player in the series in terms of 20-plus mph speed bursts is Golden Knights forward Jack Eichel (71; fifth in NHL), who also leads the playoffs in assists (16).