NHL EDGE stats for Sabres-Canadiens Game 7

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we provide three underlying metrics to watch for in Game 7 between the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Monday (7:30 p.m. ET; ESPN, SN, TVAS, CBC).

1. High-danger goals

This postseason, the Sabres lead the NHL in high-danger shots on goal (106), and the Canadiens are close behind in second (105). In terms of high-danger goals, Montreal ranks second (22; Buffalo is fourth with 19), and the Canadiens have outscored the Sabres 14-9 from high-danger zones in this series while outshooting them 57-52 from high-danger zones.

Even in games where they have been heavily outshot, the Canadiens have been opportunistic offensively, scoring three straight goals on their first three shots on goal in Game 6 of this series and four straight in Game 5. Montreal also won Game 7 on the road against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round despite being outshot 29-9 in that game.

This series features four of the NHL’s top 10 in high-danger goals this postseason: Canadiens forwards Cole Caufield and Alex Newhook have scored four high-danger goals each (tied for fourth), while Montreal’s Josh Anderson and Buffalo’s Alex Tuch have scored three high-danger goals each (tied for eighth). Buffalo has three of the top 10 players in terms of high-danger shots on goal (Tuch, Tage Thompson tied for third with 14 each; Zach Benson tied for sixth with 13), while Anderson is Montreal’s lone representative on that list (13; also tied for sixth).

Montreal has outscored Buffalo by a 14-11 margin at 5-on-5 in this series. But the Sabres hold the advantage in terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts through the first six games (52.1 to 47.9) and have heavily outshot Montreal in each of the past two games (36-22 in Game 6; 36 to 26 in Game 5). But it's worth noting the two highest-scoring players at even strength in this series have been key depth forwards for Montreal in Newhook and Jake Evans; they are tied for the series lead with six even-strength points each, and Newhook leads the series with five even-strength goals.

2. Goalie X-factor: Luukkonen

While Montreal Canadiens rookie goalie Jakub Dobes has become known for his big-game performances this postseason and save percentage in the clutch, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen continues to have a high ceiling on any given night but also plenty of inconsistency.

While Luukkonen’s high-danger save percentage for the postseason at large (.757) ranks well below the NHL average (.827), his performances stopping shots from high-danger zones in Game 4 (stopped eight of 10 high-danger shots faced) and Game 6 (stopped four of four high-danger shots faced in relief of Alex Lyon) on the road are the reason Buffalo has forced Game 7. On the flip side, Luukkonen allowed a goal from center ice in Game 2 against the Boston Bruins in the first round and also allowed five high-danger goals on 12 high-danger shots faced (0.583) in Game 5 against the Canadiens.

During the regular season, Luukkonen ranked fifth in the NHL in high-danger save percentage (.848) and, along with Lyon, was a huge part of Buffalo’s turnaround from being in last place in the Eastern Conference on Dec. 8 to the best record in the NHL from Dec. 9 to the end of the regular season (39-9-5). 

Dobes starred during Montreal’s 2-1 win at Tampa Bay in Game 7 on May 3, stopping 28 of 29 shots faced, including five saves on six high-danger shots faced. At 5-on-5 this postseason, Montreal, led by Dobes, has a much better 5-on-5 save percentage (.920; fifth among eight second-round teams) than Buffalo (.897; seventh among eight second-round teams).

3. Past experience in clutch situations

In terms of average years, Montreal has the youngest roster in the NHL (25.88), while Buffalo has the third-youngest team (26.60), and both teams have struggled at home this postseason; each team is 2-4 at home during the 2026 playoffs, including a pair of Game 5 losses for the Sabres at KeyBank Center and a pair of Game 6 losses for the Canadiens at Bell Centre.

Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin, who’s 26 years old, became the only defenseman in NHL history to have a five-point game with his team facing elimination in a playoff game (Game 6 at Montreal) but has never played in a Game 7. Tage Thompson, Buffalo’s top forward, has also never played in a Game 7. Tuch is the only player in the Sabres’ projected lineup with any Game 7 points (two in three games; one goal, one assist); Tuch had a 2-1 record in Game 7s with the Vegas Golden Knights.

Newhook, who’s 25 years old, is the only player in this series with a winning goal in a Game 7 after scoring the tie-breaking goal in the third period at Tampa Bay in Game 7 of the first round. Montreal’s young forward duo of Caufield and Nick Suzuki has a 2-0 record in career Game 7s, with Suzuki having two points (one goal, one assist) in those winner-take-all games. Montreal’s No. 1 defenseman Lane Hutson had an assist in his only career Game 7 against Tampa Bay in the first round, while Juraj Slafkovsky, another one of the Canadiens’ young impact forwards, was held without a point in that game, his only Game 7 appearance.

A key metric for Montreal entering Game 7 is its skating speed: in terms of 20-plus mph speed bursts, Suzuki (37; 96th percentile among forwards), Newhook (28; 92nd percentile among forwards) and/or Hutson (17; 97th percentile among defensemen) are potential difference-makers on any given shift.

A key metric for Buffalo’s top two players entering Game 7 is their shot speed; in terms of 90-plus mph shot attempts, Dahlin (eight; second) and Thompson (five; tied for seventh) are both among the NHL’s best this postseason.