Dobes has become the second Canadiens rookie goalie over the past 40 years (since 1986) to win at least six games in a single postseason, joining Patrick Roy (15 in 1986). To this point in the postseason, Dobes has arguably been Montreal’s most valuable player.
Since the Conn Smythe Trophy originated in 1965, Roy and Ken Dryden (1971) both won the award as rookies with the Canadiens. The only two other rookie goalies to ever win Conn Smythe were Cam Ward (with Carolina Hurricanes in 2006) and Ron Hextall (with Philadelphia Flyers in 1987). Since Roy won his second of two Conn Smythe trophies with the Canadiens in 1993, seven other NHL goalies have won playoff MVP (most recently Andrei Vasilevskiy of Lightning in 2021).
Here are three underlying reasons Dobes is a dark horse candidate for the Conn Smythe:
1. Save percentage in close games
Dobes has a .951 save percentage in the third period this postseason (77 saves on 81 shots faced), including 58 straight third-period saves dating back to Game 4 against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Dobes has the second-best third-period save percentage in a single postseason over the past five postseasons (minimum 80 shots faced) behind Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars (.953 in 2024).
Dobes also has a .920 save percentage in 5-on-5 close situations, meaning when a game is tied in the first or second period or within one goal in the third period. The Canadiens-Lightning series was particularly close; it was the third series in NHL playoff history to have seven straight one-goal games (others were New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals in 2015, Boston Bruins vs. Capitals in 2012). The score was either tied or within a one-goal margin for 98.7 percent of the Canadiens-Lightning series, the second-highest percentage in a seven-game series behind the Capitals-Bruins series in 2012 (99.4).
2. Saves from distance
Dobes has had plenty of success on perimeter shots this postseason; he has the most long-range saves (46) without allowing a long-range goal in the playoffs so far, and also the most midrange saves and long-range saves combined (139).
During the regular season, the Sabres ranked third in midrange goals (94) and sixth in high-danger goals (142). Buffalo’s power play has struggled this postseason (11.1 percent; worst among remaining playoff teams) after the Sabres went 1-for-4 with the man-advantage in Game 3. Dobes has stopped 17 of 20 shots faced (.850 power-play save percentage) while the Sabres have been on the power play in this series.
3. 5-on-5 metrics
Dobes has a .930 save percentage at 5-on-5 this postseason, fifth among goalies who have played multiple games. His 5-on-5 save percentage has been stronger at home (.940 in four games; fifth) compared to the road (.924 in six games). It’s worth noting Montreal lost two home games in the first round, but each was a narrow loss (3-2 in Game 4; 1-0 in overtime of Game 6), showing Dobes has been strong even in defeat.
In terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage in this series, Buffalo (51.3) has a slight lead on Montreal (48.7), but the Canadiens have been the better finishing team and have an 8-4 lead in 5-on-5 goals through the first three games. The only goalie with more quality starts (greater than .900 save percentage) than Dobes (six) this postseason is Frederik Andersen (seven) of the Carolina Hurricanes.
