NHL EDGE stats: Avalanche-Wild series in 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we provide three underlying metrics to watch for in the upcoming Stanley Cup Playoffs series between the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild.

1. Defenseman spotlight: Makar vs. Hughes

In terms of career points per game in the regular season, Cale Makar (1.08) and Quinn Hughes (0.96) rank first and second among active defensemen. Makar, a two-time Norris Trophy winner (2022, 2025) and past Conn Smythe Trophy winner (2022), matches up against Hughes (won Norris Trophy in 2024) in the playoffs for the first time of their careers. This will mark the fifth playoff series in NHL history when Norris Trophy winners from each of the past two seasons faced each other; the others were Nicklas Lidstrom vs. Scott Niedermayer in the 2007, Lidstrom vs. Chris Pronger in 2002, Chris Chelios vs. Ray Bourque in 1990 and Doug Harvey vs. Red Kelly in the 1956.

Makar also won the Calder Trophy in 2020 over Hughes, who finished second in voting that year. In their all-time head-to-head matchups in the regular season, Makar has 21 points (four goals, 17 assists) and 38 shots on goal in 16 games against Hughes, who has eight points (all assists) and 46 shots on goal in those games.

Both Makar and Hughes scored the series-clinching goals for their respective teams to advance past their first-round opponents, and their advanced stats profiles suggest this could be a monumental matchup. In terms of 20-plus mph speed bursts, Makar (223; second) and Hughes (174; fourth) each ranked in the top five at their position during the regular season. Makar has the fastest max skating speed (23.92 mph) in the entire NHL this postseason, while Hughes has skated the most miles in a single game during the playoffs (6.35).

The Avalanche had the most 20-plus mph speed bursts of any team during the regular season (2,643) and we way ahead of the Wild in that category (1,663; 18th), but Minnesota averaged more goals per game (3.83 against Dallas Stars) in the first round of the playoffs compared to Colorado (3.25 against Los Angeles Kings) despite having a much more difficult opponent.

2. Goalie spotlight: Wedgewood vs. Wallstedt

Avalanche goalie Scott Wedgewood had a near-perfect first-round series against the Kings in terms of multiple advanced metrics. The NHL leaders in 5-on-5 save percentage in close situations (when game is tied in first or second period, or within one goal in third period) are Wedgewood and Frederik Andersen (Carolina Hurricanes); each has a perfect 1.000 save percentage in close situations.

Wedgewood had a quality start (greater than .900 save percentage) in all four of his first-round games, and he didn’t allow a 5-on-5 goal until Game 3 against Los Angeles. Wedgewood leads the NHL in 5-on-5 save percentage this postseason (.973) among goalies who have played multiple games, while Wild goalie Jesper Wallstedt ranks second in that category (.970).

Wallstedt, although he played two more games than Wedgewood in the first round, is the only goalie in the NHL with more quality starts (five) than Wedgewood. Wallstedt has been the breakout goalie of the playoffs so far, emerging as the clear starter over Filip Gustavsson, who played more games (49) than Wallstedt (33) during the regular season; each goalie had four shutouts during the regular season.

Among goalies who have played multiple playoff games, Wedgewood has the best high-danger save percentage (.935), while Wallstedt ranks second in midrange save percentage this postseason (.964) behind Andersen (1.000).

Furthermore, Wallstedt has excelled against perimeter shots, stopping 94 of 98 shots faced from midrange and long-range combined (.959 save percentage). In terms of team save percentage during the regular season, the Avalanche, with the tandem of Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood, ranked first (.909), and the Wild, with the tandem of Gustavsson and Wallstedt, ranked second (.903).

3. Offensive metrics at 5-on-5

Although the series features elite defensemen and goaltending tandems, it also showcases a number of elite forwards on each side in Nathan Mackinnon, Martin Necas, Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy. All four of those forwards had at least 85 points this regular season, led by MacKinnon’s 127 (third in NHL), and each ranked in the top 20 League-wide. MacKinnon won the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy this season for the NHL’s most regular-season goals (53) and also led the entire League in even-strength goals (42) and even-strength points (97).

During the regular season, the Wild had two of the NHL’s top 10 goal scorers in Kaprizov (45; tied for fourth) and Boldy (42; tied for ninth). During the playoffs, the Wild lead the NHL in 5-on-5 goal differential (plus-10; 14-4 margin), while the Avalanche are close behind in second (plus-7; 9-2 margin).

The Avalanche trailed for only 3:21 in the first round against the Kings and have been the more dominant puck-possession team all year long. The Avalanche ranked second in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage during the regular season (56.4), while the Wild were 23rd (48.5). The teams split their regular-season series 2-2, but Colorado had a significant edge over Minnesota in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (54.9 to 45.1).

Colorado and Minnesota were also two of the best teams off the rush this season. Per NHL EDGE IQ, the Avalanche had the third-most inferenced shot attempts off the rush per game during the regular season (16.5), while the Wild had the highest Projected Goal Rate on their shots off the rush (6.57 percent) during the regular season. NHL EDGE IQ defines goals off the rush as goals that occur within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line. Inferenced shot attempts exclude those taken from greater than 60 feet, beyond the goal line or against an empty net.

The Central Division rivals will play their fourth head-to-head playoff series following seven-game wins by Minnesota in the 2014 First Round and 2003 Conference Quarterfinals as well as a six-game series win by Colorado in the 2008 Conference Quarterfinals.