Salary cap check: The current state of the Stars roster

The committee that hands out the Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year Award is made up mostly of NHL general managers, so they know just how difficult the job can be.

Jim Nill and his staff have taken the honor three years in a row, and yet they have had some hiccups along the way. Thursday was one of those.

The Stars traded defenseman Matt Dumba to Pittsburgh for Vladislav Kolyachonok on Thursday. That seems like a fairly normal move on the surface. Dallas needed to shed Dumba’s $3.75 million in salary and the Penguins were able to give away a young defenseman who they picked up on waivers. The kicker is that the Stars had to toss in a 2028 second-round draft pick. That’s a high price just to clear some cap space.

But the salary cap is a relentless tyrant. It craves conformity, and it doesn’t care how. Nill has had challenges with previous contracts for Ryan Suter and Valeri Nichushkin. It happens to pretty much every team in the league, forcing you to question the thinking on why you handed out a deal in the first place.

Well, truth be told, I didn’t think the Dumba contract was a problem at the time. He was 30 years old, he had a recent 10-year run with the Wild where he was a top four defenseman. He had a dip with Arizona, but the Coyotes were a bad team overall. Could you imagine him getting a second chance with a Stanley Cup contender? Could you imagine how a right-handed blueliner with a mix of skill and grit might be the perfect fit in a reduced role with a solid partner? The opportunity was there for a real renaissance from Dumba.

But, it didn’t work. Dumba played 63 games and averaged 15:18 in ice time. He had 10 points (1 goal, 9 assists), 60 penalty minutes and was minus-5. The major indictment came when he was a healthy scratch for the entirety of the playoffs. Both rookie Lian Bichsel and veteran Alexander Petrovic passed him up on the depth chart, and that was a little alarming when you consider Dumba’s pedigree. Mix in the fact that Nils Lundkvist is healthy and appears ready to take a regular spot on the right side, and the writing was on the wall.

You just hoped Dallas could have done it for cheaper.

But, a draft pick in 2028 is certainly manageable for a team that wants to win now, and it beats the buyout (remember, they are already paying Suter $1.4 million to not play for them next season). It just tells you how tricky this plate spinning act can be. The argument is the Stars’ roster today might not be as good as it was in the playoffs. After all, you don’t lose Mikael Granlund, Mason Marchment and Evgenii Dadonov and not feel it. Marchment had 22 goals last season, Dadonov had 20, and Granlund had 22 (7 with the Stars) while splitting time with San Jose and Dallas. That’s a significant shortage of offense.

Now, the plan is pretty solid to replace that. One, Mikko Rantanen has 705 points in 652 career games and will begin an eight-year contract next season. He should be even more comfortable in his new home and will look to build on four straight seasons with 30-plus goals and 88-plus points. The front office took a big swing on Rantanen, and the belief is you need that to be a team that can win it all. Toss in a playoff points-per-game of 1.24 that ranks ninth all-time in the NHL, and Rantanen fills a moose-sized hole in the lineup.

In addition, the team should get a fully healthy season from 33-year-old Tyler Seguin, who averaged a point-per-game in 20 games last season, as well as a healthier Jason Robertson. Mix in a group of young forwards who should be trending up in Wyatt Johnston, Mavrik Bourque and even Roope Hintz, and there is potential there for more.

In addition, new head coach Glen Gulutzan and new assistant coach Neil Graham can push some buttons and potentially find the right balance in this lineup. Does that mean even better overall team defense? Does that mean a power play that ranks higher than 17th (22.0 percent)? Does that mean a shots-on-goal average that is higher than 14th (28.3) or an SAT (shot attempt differential) that is better than 18th (minus-84)?

There is definitely room for improvement.

Along with the young forwards, Dallas also should get improved play from Miro Heiskanen, Jake Oettinger, Bichsel and Lundkvist in the back end. They also have the opportunity to allow some guys from the AHL to really assert themselves in training camp and knock on the door. And, as happens every season, they have a chance for the front office to work some magic before the trade deadline and bring in players who can make a difference in the postseason. We have seen in recent years with the acquisition of players like Max Domi, Dadonov, Chris Tanev, Cody Ceci, Granlund and Rantanen that Nill is pretty good at that game.

So as we ponder whether this lineup is good enough to win going forward, we know that Nill has made some hard decisions and a few sacrifices here and there. We also know he and his crew have put a ton of thought into spinning these plates within the boundaries of the league rules. Will it work? Who knows. But his team has played in nine playoff series in the past three seasons, and that’s pretty impressive. You get the feeling he has kept his mistakes to a minimum.

It's one of the reasons he has such respect from his peers when it comes to awards and stuff.

This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.

Mike Heika is a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on X @MikeHeika.