Bobrovsky vs. Skinner goalie matchup in Stanley Cup Final

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, the last 100 goals allowed for each goaltender in the regular season and every goal in the playoffs were charted to see what patterns emerge.

The Stanley Cup Final is a rematch from the seven-game battle between Sergei Bobrovsky of the Florida Panthers and Stuart Skinner of the Edmonton Oilers last year, so there won't be any secrets or surprises about what to expect from the other goalie.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Florida Panthers

Bobrovsky is in his 15th NHL season, has won the Vezina Trophy twice (2013, '17) and the Stanley Cup last season, so there aren't a lot of unknowns about how he plays. Of course, it may not matter how much you think you know about his game because Bobrovsky at his best can feel impossible to beat, including giving up just one goal on 51 shots in the first two games against the Oilers last year, making it increasingly important not to feed into his strengths when they stingy Panthers do give up scoring chances.

Top half of the net off laterals: It's hard to ignore the goal totals above the blocker and arm in the regular season and playoffs, which are all above the averages -- 18.3 percent high blocker and 22.5 percent high glove -- for more than 8,500 goals tracked for this project since 2017. But it's not always as simple as shooting high all the time, and it's as much a credit to how good Bobrovsky is at building vertical coverage over his pads while moving, including a willingness to drop his stick to square up his blocker, as it is as critique. Just ask Carolina Hurricanes forward Logan Stankoven, who did score with a near-perfect clean shot over the blocker off the rush in Game 4 to spark the Hurricanes' only win of the Eastern Conference Final, but was robbed by the outstretched blocker of Bobrovsky when he failed to hit the top half on a backdoor one-timer from below the hash mark. That full-splits save kept Florida ahead 1-0 in Game 3 and is a perfect example of the spectacular momentum-changing moments Bobrovsky is capable of if you give him a chance. So were consecutive saves he made in the second period of Game 5 of the Eastern Conference First Round against the Tampa Bay Lightning, robbing Erik Cernak and Gage Goncalves on side-to-side chances to keep the Panthers ahead 3-2. If you don't get your shot up, you risk a momentum-changing save, evidenced by just one goal over the pads in this entire playoff run so far.

Where you shoot from may matter as much as where you shoot to: There have been clean shots over Bobrovsky's blocker that stood out in the playoffs, including Stankoven's exceptional shot in Game 4 and Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly scoring clean over the blocker on a 2-on-1 in Game 1 of the second round. There was also a couple of 5-hole rush shot goals against Toronto, and Sebastian Aho scored under each arm on shots from distance in the conference final, including a screened shot under the blocker and a breakaway shot under the glove. The common denominator was where they shot from, with all coming mid-zone between the top of the face-off circles and longer shots that can sometimes catch Bobrovsky transitioning from a higher stance with his head up and his tracking limited on lower shots.

Create chaos: Getting pucks and bodies to the net is a recipe for success against any elite goalie, but Bobrovsky's goal totals on shots that hit a body or stick were well above the 14 percent tracked average in the tracked regular-season goals (21 percent) and are 33 percent (12 of 36 goals) in the playoffs so far. Add in screens as the primary factor on six playoff goals and it's clear that reducing predictability and sightlines increases the chances of scoring against such an experienced play-reading goalie.

Beware active stick: Getting low passes through can be harder because of Bobrovksy's active stick, so elevating attempts through the crease might get a few more to their intended target. That tendency to reach out with his stick can leave the blocker side exposed, which Seth Jarvis took advantage of twice with high-blocker shots in the conference final, and it can also delay reaction time on the glove side if you catch him reaching out with the blocker to cut off passes from below the goal line on his right side.

Sharper angles to make him move further: Bobrovsky's lateral movement is as good as any, so it's no surprise he's had success on east-west plays. Of the 23 goals he surrendered on plays across the slot line, an imaginary line dividing the offensive zone from the goal line to the top of the face-off circles, 17 were finished by one-timers, emphasizing the importance of not giving him any extra time to get across. As well as Bobrovsky moves, some scenarios can make it harder to cover lateral distances. He squares up rush retreats toward the boards and into an overlap of the post when plays get to bottom of the circle, especially on the blocker side, making it harder to get across on a lateral play from sharper angles, with 13 of 23 slot-line goals below the hash marks in the regular season and four of the seven in the playoffs.

Five-hole: Despite the two rush goals against Toronto, pucks under Bobrovsky's pads come more often in scrambles, when lateral pushes from the butterfly force him to lift his push knee, making quick low shots back into his coverage an option worth trying in traffic and on rebounds.

Stuart Skinner

Edmonton Oilers

Skinner lost the starting job after two games against the Los Angeles Kings in the Western Conference First Round but took over for an injured Calvin Pickard in Game 3 against the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round. After giving up four goals in his first start back against Vegas, he had back-to-back shutouts to eliminate the Golden Knights and continued to look more controlled in his movements and contained in his positioning while giving up 10 goals, two over Games 2-4 of the Western Conference Final, to eliminate the Dallas Stars in five, a series that began when he allowed five goals in Game 1.

Attack in transition: Rush-style chances accounted for 46 percent of goals in the regular season, well above the 35 percent tracked average since 2017. That includes 17 of 26 goals scored on plays and passes across the middle of the ice that forced Skinner to move side-to-side. The majority were finished with one-timers that beat him across the ice, and though there were times early in the season his initial positioning was more aggressive and made it harder to get across, he seemed to reign it in as the year went on. There was still a tendency to slide on the first pass, sometimes higher in the zone than some peers, which can leave him more vulnerable to cutbacks, second passes and against-the-grain shots. Of course, you have to create transition chances to capitalize on them. Over the past seven games, the Golden Knights and Stars only generated 11 dangerous chances off the rush and two east-west plays in transition. Six of those chances, and one of the two east-west plays off the rush, came in the Oilers' only loss in the conference final, 6-3 in Game 1.

Right to left: Every goalie has a side they move better toward. For most it's the glove but for Skinner the opposite appears to be true. Of those 26 goals on side-to-side plays across the middle of the ice this season, 19 came on plays and passes that forced Skinner to move right to left toward his glove. Those numbers don't represent a save percentage because this project doesn't track every shot, so it's possible the Oilers just gave up a lot more dangerous plays in this direction. But any discrepancy that big is worth noting, especially considering Skinner's momentum-changing saves moving to his right, including a tremendous blocker arm save off Colin Blackwell to keep Game 3 tied 0-0 midway through the first period after a cross-ice play off a skate by Miro Heiskanen. Edmonton won 6-1.

Bodies to the net for scrambles: Opponents scored 21 goals scored on plays that hit sticks, skates and legs in front of Skinner in the regular season, well above the 14 percent average, and five of 25 in the playoffs have come on similar plays. There were also 14 rebound goals, including 12 on second chances below the hash marks, where scrambles and broken plays can expose side-to-side recovery delays when moving from his knees, caused in part from having a narrower butterfly. These plays account for five of 12 goals scored through the five-hole. Add in three more five-hole goals scored on screen shots that caught Skinner trying to look up and around traffic, and it's clearly important to create and win battles in front of the Edmonton net.

Passive on screens can create tip options: Skinner's regular-season screen numbers (13 goals) were better than the tracked average (15.1 percent), but he's given up five already (20 percent) in the playoffs. A tendency to sit behind traffic, like he did on Heiskanen's power-play point shot goal in Game 1 rather than picking a side to look around, can leave him deeper in his crease and also more susceptible to deflections, which haven't really been a problem this season (three goals) or in these playoffs (one goal) so far, but are something the Panthers do well, including two goals on Skinner in the 2024 Final.

Stretch him out: The narrow butterfly can leave Skinner reaching on lateral plays, whether on walkouts in tight or on breakaways, with a tendency to pitch his torso forward or lunge to create additional extension with the pads, something Aleksander Barkov exploited to deke around him in Game 6 last year. This trend can also leave him prone on rebounds and create five-hole exposure while moving.