NHL EDGE stats behind Wallstedt’s breakout season for Wild

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at three underlying metrics storylines behind Jesper Wallstedt’s dominant start to the season for the Minnesota Wild.

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Jesper Wallstedt is having a full-fledged breakout season for the Minnesota Wild, catapulting him atop the list of Vezina Trophy contenders.

Approaching the one-quarter mark of the season (Nov. 17), Wallstedt leads the NHL in wins (13-2-3), and the Wild are tied with the defending Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes atop the NHL standings (32 points each; Minnesota has 14-3-4 record). Among goalies to play at least 10 games this season, Wallstedt ranks third in save percentage (.925) and only slightly behind the League leaders (Jacob Fowler, Joel Hofer at .926).

The 23-year-old Wallstedt, who has taken advantage of a full-time starter’s role in the absence of injured teammate Filip Gustavsson, is in the thick of the Vezina Trophy race, along with New Jersey Devils goalie Connor Hellebuyck (6-0-0, .916 save percentage, one shutout since being acquired from Winnipeg Jets), the Montreal Canadiens’ rookie standout Fowler (9-1-2, .926 save percentage, two shutouts), Hurricanes starter Pyotr Kochetkov (11-1-0, two shutouts) and others.

Here are three underlying storylines behind Wallstedt’s breakout start:

1. 5-on-5 prowess

Wallstedt ranks second in 5-on-5 save percentage (.946 in 18 games) this season behind Linus Ullmark (.965 in nine games). In terms of 5-on-5 close save percentage, Wallstedt also leads the League (.961) among goalies to play at least 10 games.

In terms of 5-on-5 shooting percentage plus save percentage, Minnesota is tied for fourth (103.1) behind the Boston Bruins (105.4), Edmonton Oilers (103.6) and Canadiens (103.4). The Wild, led by one of the NHL’s leading goal-scorers in Kirill Kaprizov (17 goals; second behind Leon Draisaitl’s 18), rank 11th in goals per game overall (3.33) and sixth in power-play percentage (27.4) this season.

The Wild are also a sound puck-possession team; they are tied for seventh in offensive zone time percentage (41.7) at all strengths and also tied for seventh in that category at even strength (41.4). In terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage, Minnesota (50.5; tied for 11th) checks out as a team capable of a deep postseason run. 

Minnesota is the only team in the League that has led for more than half of the running time on the clock; the Wild have led 54.2 percent of the time this season (next-highest is Edmonton Oilers at 48.9 percent). Last year, the Wild won their first playoff round since 2014-15, defeating the Dallas Stars in six games before losing to the Colorado Avalanche in five.

2. Quality starts

Wallstedt leads the NHL in quality starts by a wide margin; his 14 are much higher than the next-closest goalies, Mackenzie Blackwood of the Avalanche and Jeremy Swayman of the Bruins (nine each). Among goalies to play at least 10 games, Wallstedt also leads the NHL in percentage of quality starts (77.8; 14 of 18).

The Wild have been one of the best teams in the NHL in terms of suppressing shots; they are allowing the seventh-fewest shots on goal per game (25.9) this season. But Wallstedt has still risen to the occasion when facing quality scoring chances; he ranks fourth in high-danger save percentage (.869) among goalies who have played at least 10 games this season behind Joseph Woll of the Philadelphia Flyers (.901), Fowler (.886) and Jacob Markstrom of the Florida Panthers (.877).

3. Saves Above Projected

NHL EDGE IQ insight 📊: “Saves Above Projected” is the total shots on goal a goalie faces minus the sum of the Projected Goal Rate on all of his inferenced shot attempts faced (excluding attempts taken greater than 60 feet, beyond the goal line or against empty net). Among goalies to face at least 200 shots on goal this season, Wallsted leads the League in Saves Above Projected (plus-16.02). A positive number for “Saves Above Projected” means a goalie is making more saves than the average goalie would given the quality of shots on goal faced.

While Gustavsson is nearing a return from injury, it’s worth noting Wallstedt had four shutouts as a rookie last season (tied for third in entire NHL) while in a tandem with Gustavsson; the Wild ranked second in team save percentage last season (.904) behind only the Avalanche (.909).

Wallstedt’s individual ability combined with Minnesota having an elite defenseman in past Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes (won award in 2024) give the Wild a chance of reaching the Western Conference Final for the first time since 2003. Wallstedt’s performance this season is even more impressive when considering the team’s other top pair defenseman, Brock Faber, has not played a single game this season due to injury. 

Although Hughes’ ongoing contract uncertainty clouds Minnesota’s long-term outlook, Wallstedt gives the team a ceiling of winning the Stanley Cup for the first time in franchise history especially if Hughes remains part of the team.