NHL EDGE stats: Celebrini building case for Hart Trophy with Sharks

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we break down Macklin Celebrini’s chances of winning the Hart Trophy this season.

Macklin Celebrini is having one of the best seasons by a teenager in NHL history, and the San Jose Sharks being on the cusp of the Stanley Cup Playoffs makes the 19-year-old a bona fide Hart Trophy contender.

Celebrini has already surpassed the 100-point mark this season (106 in 75 games; fourth in entire NHL) and, with seven games remaining for San Jose, has the fourth-most points by a teenager in history behind Wayne Gretzky (137 in 1979-80 with Edmonton Oilers), Sidney Crosby (120 in 2006-07 with Pittsburgh Penguins) and Jimmy Carson (107 in 1987-88 with Los Angeles Kings). The only teenagers to win the Hart Trophy as the NHL's most valuable player were Gretzky and Crosby during those aforementioned seasons.

The Sharks (36-32-7, 79 points) are two points behind the Predators and Kings (81 points each) for the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference; San Jose has played one fewer game (75) than both Los Angeles and Nashville (76 each). Celebrini is looking to lift his team to its first Stanley Cup Playoffs appearance since a run to the Conference Finals in 2018-19.

San Jose has been the most-improved team in the NHL (plus-16 wins) this season thanks to Celebrini’s dominance and the rest of the Sharks’ promising young core, which includes forwards Will Smith (No. 4 pick in 2023 NHL Draft), William Eklund (No. 7 pick in 2021 NHL Draft), Michael Misa (No. 2 pick in 2025 NHL Draft) and Collin Graf (undrafted). The Sharks have four 20-goal scorers, including Celebrini (41 goals), his frequent linemate Smith (22 goals; 21 years old), Graf (20 goals; 23 years old) and in-season trade acquisition Kiefer Sherwood (21 goals; 31 years old).

Celebrini is on pace to surpass Joe Thornton (114 points in 2006-07) for the Sharks’ single-season scoring record and has factored in on 46.3 percent of San Jose’s goals this season, the second most in the NHL behind Connor McDavid (47.5) of the Oilers. Celebrini is on pace for the highest percentage of a team’s goals in a season ever by a teenager; Gretzky currently holds the record of 45.5 percent in 1979-80.

Celebrini has had many offensive outbursts this season; he’s among the NHL leaders in multipoint games (28; tied for sixth), three-point games (17; third) and four-point games (five; tied for third). With six career four-point games through his first two NHL seasons, Celebrini ranks fourth among teenagers in history behind Gretzky (14), Crosby (eight) and Dale Hawerchuk (seven).

Here are three underlying reasons Celebrini can win the Hart Trophy this season:

1. Shot speed

Celebrini ranks seventh among NHL forwards in hardest shot (97.89 miles per hour) and leads Sharks skaters in the category this season. He's also among the League's forward leaders in average shot speed (62.18 mph; 95th percentile). 

Celebrini has six 90-plus mph shot attempts this season, including two since March 21; he didn’t have any 90-plus mph shots last season as a rookie. Celebrini also has a League-leading 25 wrist shot goals this season, showing the young superstar has an elite release.

2. Midrange offense

Celebrini leads the entire NHL in both midrange goals (23; three more than next-highest player) and midrange shots on goal (147) this season. Celebrini ranks highly among forwards in long-range shots on goal (27; 96th percentile) and long-range goals (two; 94th percentile).

Celebrini has also been a clutch goal-scorer this season; he has factored in on 26 game-tying goals (11 goals, 15 assists), which leads the entire NHL. Celebrini is also the complete package on both ends of the ice; he ranks fifth in the NHL in primary assists (43), has the third-most assists (65) by a teenager in history behind Gretzky (86) and Crosby (84) and is tied for sixth among forwards in takeaways (40) this season. Celebrini has helped Smith have a career high in points (54 in 62 games) despite the latter missing 13 games because of injury.

3. Skating ability

Celebrini ranks highly among forwards in 20-plus mph speed bursts (178; 93rd percentile) this season and is a skating distance standout; he's fourth at the position at all strengths (270.03 miles) and third at the position in power-play skating distance (44.94 miles; behind McDavid’s 45.09 and Nathan MacKinnon's 44.99).

Although Nikita Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid are perennial Art Ross Trophy contenders, Celebrini has already closed the gap and could have as high of a ceiling as those players in the years ahead. Considering the Sharks are 2-15-3 when Celebrini does not record a point this season, he has been arguably the most important player to his team -- and San Jose making the playoffs would further strengthen his Hart Trophy case.

But even if the Sharks narrowly miss the postseason, it wouldn't be unprecedented for Celebrini to win MVP. The last time a player from a non-playoff team won the Hart Trophy was Mario Lemieux of the Penguins in 1987-88, when they missed the postseason by one point but he led the NHL in points (168 points in 77 games) at 22 years old.