NHL EDGE stats 2026-27 season outlook for Florida Panthers

As part of NHL.com's 32 in 32 series, we will identify key NHL EDGE stats for each team to preview the 2026-27 season. Today, we look at three advanced metrics trends surrounding the Florida Panthers:

1. Tkachuk brothers' high-danger offense

The Panthers’ championship potential has been rebuilt in an offseason that included several major trades, though none was bigger than the acquisition of powerhouse forward Brady Tkachuk. Florida, which entered last season with a chance to win a third consecutive Stanley Cup title, ultimately missed the postseason because of injuries, most notably captain Aleksander Barkov missing the entire season because of a knee injury. With Brady joining forces with brother Matthew, and the roster at full strength, the Panthers are primed to regain their netfront prowess, which could put them squarely back in the mix at the top of the Atlantic Division.

Brady has dominated high-danger areas of the ice through the years; since the start of the puck and player tracking era (2021-22), he ranks third in high-danger shots on goal (639) behind Zach Hyman of the Edmonton Oilers (725) and John Tavares of the Toronto Maple Leafs (654). Brady's best seasons in terms of high-danger shots on goal were when he finished second in 2022-23 (171), second in 2021-22 (135) and tied for third in 2024-25 (114). Brady scored 11 of his 22 goals from high-danger zones last season with the Ottawa Senators, and his highest rank in terms of high-danger goals came in 2023-24 (23; tied for seventh). 

Matthew, meanwhile, has dealt with injuries each of the past two seasons but ranked among the top 10 in  the NHL in high-danger shots on goal in each of his first two seasons with the Panthers (fifth in 2022-23, 158; ninth in 2023-24, 114). Florida now has three of the top goal-scorers from high-danger zones during the puck and player tracking era: Sam Reinhart is seventh (108), Brady is 14th (92), and Matthew is tied for 15th (91). Reinhart finished second in high-danger goals in 2023-24 (35), and Matthew was tied for third in that category in 2022-23 (31).

2. Barkov's possession metrics

Barkov's return to full health should greatly help the Panthers’ ability to drive the puck into the offensive zone. Despite ranking fifth in offensive zone time percentage (42.2 percent) and ninth in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (51.9 percent) last season, Florida missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Barkov, who returned to competitive hockey for Finland at the 2026 IIHF World Championship in May, has been a juggernaut in offensive zone time percentage when healthy; he has ranked in the 90th percentile or higher among forwards in the category each of his past four seasons:

• 2024-25: 48.0 percent (98th percentile)
• 2023-24: 48.5 percent (99th percentile)
• 2022-23: 46.3 percent (92nd percentile)
• 2021-22: 45.5 percent (90th percentile)

Brady was third in the NHL in offensive zone time percentage (48.6 percent) last season and ranked highly among forwards in that category in 2024-25 (46.1 percent; 93rd percentile) and 2022-23 (46.0 percent; 90th percentile). Matthew, meanwhile, is also one of the League's top forwards in offensive zone time percentage; although he was limited to 31 games because of injury, he ranked in the 97th percentile last season (47.4 percent). He was also in the 97th percentile of that category in 2024-25 (47.5 percent).

Another plus of Florida having healthy front-line forwards is an ability to exploit its depth advantage. In terms of offensive zone time percentage, Brad Marchand (46.0 percent; 94th percentile), Carter Verhaeghe (45.8 percent; 92nd percentile), Sam Bennett (45.6 percent; 91st percentile) and Reinhart (45.3 percent; 88th percentile) each ranked highly at the position last season and could give the Panthers one of the strongest top-nine forward groups in the League.

3. Markstrom, Schmid high-danger save percentage

The Panthers made trades to acquire goalies Jacob Markstrom from the New Jersey Devils and Akira Schmid from the Vegas Golden Knights, and longtime starter Sergei Bobrovsky signed a three-year contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs. 

Markstrom, 36, and Schmid, 26, had high-danger save percentages below the NHL average (.811) last season, but each has had success in that category in the past. In 2023-24, Markstrom's final season with the Calgary Flames, he ranked second in the NHL in high-danger save percentage (.857; behind Anthony Stolarz, .861). During the 2024-25 season with the Devils, Markstrom had a high-danger save percentage (.811) better than the NHL average (.805). In a small sample size during 2024-25, Schmid ranked in the 88th percentile in high-danger save percentage for Vegas (.842 in five games). Last season, Schmid was tied for 14th in mid-range save percentage (.901) in an expanded role for the Golden Knights.

Although Markstrom is coming off an underwhelming year that saw the Devils miss the playoffs, he showed signs of improvement; nine of Markstrom's 15 quality starts (starts with greater than .900 save percentage) last season came after Jan. 1. Schmid had a better goal differential (plus-12) than Markstrom (minus-19) last season, though Markstrom is the far more established starter. Together, with plenty of goal support if the Panthers' top skaters stay healthy, Markstrom and Schmid could form a strong enough tandem to lead Florida on another deep playoff run.