Stanley Cup Qualifiers preview: Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets

Toronto's secondary scoring key against Columbus' goaltending, defense

By David Satriano

@davidsatriano NHL.com Staff Writer

July 31, 2020

The Stanley Cup Qualifiers will use eight best-of-5 series and two four-team round-robins to determine the field and seeding for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

NHL.com will preview every series and round-robin prior to the start of the Qualifiers on Saturday.

Today, the qualifier series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Columbus Blue Jackets.

No. 8 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. No. 9 Columbus Blue Jackets

Maple Leafs: 36-25-9, .579 points percentage

Blue Jackets: 33-22-15, .579 points percentage

Season series: TOR 1-0-1; CBJ 1-1-0

The Toronto Maple Leafs are hoping a midseason coaching change will continue to pay off in the Stanley Cup Qualifiers.

The Maple Leafs began the season 9-10-4 before firing Mike Babcock on Nov. 20 and promoting Sheldon Keefe from the Toronto Marlies of the American Hockey League to replace him. Toronto went 27-15-5 in 47 games the rest of the season and was the highest-scoring team in the NHL (3.51 goals per game) under Keefe until the NHL season was paused March 12 due to concerns surrounding the coronavirus.

"We have to be who we are," Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner said. "If we look around our room, we're not trying to be anyone else than the Toronto Maple Leafs, so we have to stick to our strengths and play our game while being aware what makes [the Blue Jackets] a good team and deep team. They're going to do what they can to limit [the chances they allow] just like we're going to try to do."

One season after winning a Stanley Cup Playoff series for the first time in its history, Columbus exceeded expectations after losing forward Artemi Panarin (New York Rangers), center Matt Duchene (Nashville Predators) and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida Panthers) in free agency.

The Blue Jackets managed to stay competitive this season despite injuries to forwards Cam Atkinson and Oliver Bjorkstrand, center Alexandre Texier, defensemen Seth Jones, Dean Kukan and Ryan Murray, and goalie Joonas Korpisalo. Each is expected to be available for the Qualifiers.

"Although the break, no one really wanted this to happen, it certainly helped this team getting guys healthy," Columbus coach John Tortorella said. "We're excited about that opportunity to play with a full team."

Game breakers

Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews had NHL career highs in goals (47), points (80) and power-play points (25) in 70 games this season, increasing his goals and points totals for the second straight season. The center has scored at least 34 goals each of his first four seasons in the League, and his 158 goals since 2016-17 are second in the NHL behind Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin (181). Matthews has scored 10 goals in 20 Stanley Cup Playoff games, including five in seven games last season.

Blue Jackets: Jones led Columbus in ice time per game for the fifth straight season (25:17), scored 30 points (six goals, 24 assists), and had a plus-10 rating in 56 games. He was a big reason the Blue Jackets were tied for third in the NHL in goals-against per game (2.61) and 12th on the penalty kill (81.7 percent). Jones, along with defense partner Zach Werenski, will be tasked with slowing down the Maple Leafs' top lines.

TBL@TOR: Marner sets up Matthews' power-play blast

Goaltending

Maple Leafs: Frederik Andersen (29-13-7 in 52 games) had the worst goals-against average (2.85) and save percentage (.909) in his four seasons in Toronto but will be the starter and have a long leash, Keefe said. Backup Jack Campbell was 3-2-1 with a 2.63 GAA and .915 save percentage in six starts with the Maple Leafs but has never played in an NHL postseason game; Andersen has played 48 playoff games for the Maple Leafs and Anaheim Ducks.

Blue Jackets: Will Korpisalo or Elvis Merzlikins be the Game 1 starter? Korpisalo was 19-12-5 with a 2.60 GAA and .911 save percentage in 37 games, and he was selected to the 2020 NHL All-Star Game but was unable to participate because of a leg injury. Merzlikins, a rookie, was 13-9-8 with a 2.35 GAA and .929 save percentage in 33 games and had five shutouts in an eight-game span from Jan. 11-Feb. 7.

Numbers to know

Maple Leafs: Toronto was third in the NHL in scoring this season (3.39 goals per game), though only four players scored at least 21 goals and six scored at least 13. Matthews, Marner (67 points) and center John Tavares (60) were the only Maple Leafs players with at least 60 points. Toronto, which was tied for the fifth-best power-play percentage (23.1 percent), was shut out once in 70 games.

Blue Jackets: Bjorkstrand (21 goals) and Werenski (20) were the only Columbus players to score at least 20 goals, though eight players scored at least 10. The Blue Jackets were tied for the fourth-fewest goals per game in the NHL (2.57) and were shut out four times. They scored two goals or fewer in regulation 34 times in 70 games.

X-factors

Maple Leafs: Nicholas Robertson has yet to make his NHL debut, but the 18-year-old forward could make an impact. Selected by Toronto in the second round (No. 53) of the 2019 NHL Draft, he led the Ontario Hockey League in goals (55) this season and was 10th in points (86) in 46 games with Peterborough. Robertson practiced up and down the lineup during training camp, and he should get chances to contribute.

Blue Jackets: Emil Bemstrom had two assists in his first 15 NHL games but then scored 18 points (10 goals, eight assists) in his final 41 games before the season was paused. The 21-year-old rookie forward scored half of his goals on the power play and had a shooting percentage of 10.3 percent. He won't be a player the Maple Leafs key in on and could take advantage.

They said it

"We're not one of the 12 teams in the East playing now, in the summer, if our goaltending doesn't carry us. They were the backbone of our team. Each one of them took a part of the season and really stood in there for us. It's exciting to see and that's why I say I'm not sure who will start this series because they're both deserving of it. Right now, to me, it'd be a coin toss, who would play." -- Blue Jackets coach John Tortorella on goalies Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins

"They have some elite defensemen and two goalies who had great runs. They're a hard-working team, they're a team that doesn't give you much and really tighten up the inside of their defensive zone and they make you work for your offensive chances." -- Maple Leafs forward Jason Spezza

Will win if …

Maple Leafs: They get scoring from someone other than Tavares, Matthews, Marner and forward William Nylander, who scored an NHL career-high 31 goals. They're set in goal with Andersen but will need more from the likes of forwards Zach Hyman, Kasperi Kapanen and Alex Kerfoot to advance.

Blue Jackets: They can mesh offensively now that they're healthy, something that wasn't the case most of the season. Their defense and goaltending should keep them in this series.