Lightning season preview: Return of playoff success paramount

The 2026-27 NHL regular season begins Sept. 29. Leading up to the season opener, NHL.com is identifying six things to watch for each team. Today, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Last season: 50-26-6, second in Atlantic Division; lost in the Eastern Conference First Round

Coach: Jon Cooper (14th season)

Biggest challenge

The Lightning haven’t advanced in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2022, when they reached the Cup Final for a third consecutive season. So, their biggest challenge is getting out of the Eastern Conference First Round with the expectation they’ll clinch a berth for a 10th consecutive season. The players and coach Jon Cooper will all counter by saying we're putting the cart before the horse, that making the playoffs in the NHL is hard and certainly not a given. They are correct. But the challenge for Tampa Bay is not to reach the postseason, it is to win once it gets there. Anything short of that will be a massive disappointment.

How they make playoffs

Follow the same blueprint since Cooper took over as coach with 16 games remaining in the 2012-13 season. Despite regular roster turnover, the Lightning have stayed consistent as one of the NHL's premier goal-scoring teams with top special teams and elite goaltending. Nothing changes. They cleaned up at awards time last season with Nikita Kucherov taking the Hart Trophy as the League's most valuable player to his team, Andrei Vasilevskiy winning the Vezina Trophy as top goalie and Cooper being voted as best coach, winning the Jack Adams Award for the first time. Anthony Cirelli was the runner-up for the Selke Trophy, awarded to the best defensive forward. Don't be surprised if all four are up for the same awards this season. In fact, Tampa Bay could be better if Victor Hedman, at 35 years old, can get back to being one of the League's premier defensemen. He struggled with injuries until taking a personal leave that carried from March 20 through the end of the season. Darren Raddysh left after a breakout season, the defenseman producing 70 points, but John Carlson is in as his replacement. Jeffrey Viel and Ilya Mikheyev are newcomers and provide forward depth, and there's the potential of some youth getting infused into the lineup with forward Sam O'Reilly a rookie to watch this season.

Most intriguing addition

Carlson signed a two-year, $17 million contract ($8.5 million average annual value) with the Lightning on July 1 to effectively replace Raddysh, who was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs before signing an eight-year contract on June 19. Raddysh set NHL career highs in goals (22), assists (48), points (70), plus/minus (plus-21), power-play goals (10), power-play points (26), game-winning goals (six), shots on goal (212) and ice time per game (22:42) last season. Carlson has some big skates to fill, but the 36-year-old has made a career out of putting up numbers similar to Raddysh's from last season. He had 60 points (14 goals, 46 assists) in 71 games split between the Washington Capitals and Anaheim Ducks in 2025-26, and should fit in seamlessly next to J.J. Moser at even strength and provide a similar type of right-handed shot from the point on the power play as Raddysh.

Biggest potential surprise

O'Reilly might have earned a roster spot on his own merit, but injuries to forwards Yanni Gourde and Dominic James have created room for the 20-year-old to make an immediate impact in a third-line role. Gourde is out until December because of offseason hip surgery, and James has a broken hand that will keep him out for the first few weeks of the regular season. O'Reilly could be a capable replacement and play his way into a full-time role even when they return. He plays an effective two-way style that's similar to Cirelli, according to assistant general manager and director of hockey operations Jeff Tambellini. He could be a regular on the penalty kill and chip in some offense, just like Gourde. O’Reilly is a two-time Memorial Cup winner, including being named the tournament’s most valuable player last season.

Ready to contribute

It's likely time for Conor Geekie to graduate into a full-time NHL player, and perhaps playing the majority of last season in the American Hockey League is exactly what the 22-year-old forward needed for his development. Geekie played a big role with Syracuse, where he had 59 points (17 goals, 42 assists) in 57 games. He played 14 games with the Lightning last season and had three points (one goal, two assists). Geekie showed he can handle the NHL game two seasons ago, when he played 52 games for Tampa Bay and had 14 points (eight goals, six assists). He's been a top prospect, and it’s time to show he can play in the top nine for the Lightning.

Fantasy sleeper with EDGE stats

J.J. Moser, D: The 26-year-old set NHL career highs in even-strength goals (seven in 79 games), even-strength points (26), shots on goal (111) and average ice time (21:34 per game) last season. Moser continued to step up during his second career playoff appearance; he led Lightning defensemen with three points (one goal, two assists), including the overtime goal in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference First Round against the Montreal Canadiens. He’s had at least 70 blocks in four straight seasons and could continue to see a big role even with Hedman’s return and the addition of Carlson. Per NHL EDGE stats, Moser ranked highly among defensemen in each of the three major shots-by-location categories last season: high-danger shots on goal (10; 87th percentile), mid-range shots on goal (27; 85th percentile) and long-range shots on goal (63; 87th percentile). He is a breakout candidate attainable in the late rounds (fantasy average draft position: 134.2). -- Troy Perlowitz

Projected lineup

Ilya Mikheyev -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov

Brandon Hagel -- Anthony Cirelli -- Jake Guentzel

Gage Goncalves -- Conor Geekie -- Sam O'Reilly

Jeffrey Viel -- Zemgus Girgensons -- Pontus Holmberg

J.J. Moser -- John Carlson

Victor Hedman -- Max Crozier

Ryan McDonagh -- Erik Cernak

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Dennis Hildeby