NHL EDGE stats 2026-27 season outlook for Tampa Bay Lightning

As part of NHL.com's 32 in 32 series, we will identify key NHL EDGE stats for each team to preview the 2026-27 season. Today, we look at three advanced metrics trends surrounding the Tampa Bay Lightning:

1. Kucherov's elite shot metrics

Nikita Kucherov, who won the Hart Trophy and led the NHL in points per game (1.71) last season, ranked in the 95th percentile or higher among forwards in high-danger goals (18; 95th percentile), mid-range goals (12; 95th percentile) and long-range goals (three; 97th percentile). Kucherov finished ninth at his position in long-range shots on goal (38) and ranked in the 94th percentile among forwards in mid-range shots on goal (78). 

The 33-year-old was tied for fifth among forwards in 70-80 mph shot attempts (131) last season and ranked highly at his position in 80-90 mph shot attempts (63; 98th percentile), 90-100 mph shot attempts (three; 94th percentile), average shot speed (62.49 mph; 95th percentile) and hardest shot (92.06; 90th percentile). In 2024-25, Kucherov ranked eighth among forwards in 80-90 mph shot attempts (66) and finished in the 98th percentile at his position in hardest shot (96.28 mph). 

Kucherov ranked ninth among forwards in skating distance on the power play (41.98 miles) last season and finished highly at his position in skating distance at all strengths (244.04; 95th percentile). He skated 4.53 miles on February 7 against the Boston Bruins, which was the seventh most miles skated in a game by a forward in the NHL last season. Kucherov also ranked highly at his position in 20-plus mph speed bursts (138; 83rd percentile), offensive zone starts percentage (44.0; 95th percentile) and offensive zone time percentage (45.7; 92nd percentile) last season.

2. Goal-scoring prowess from all locations

The Lightning finished fourth in the NHL in goals per game (3.49) last season and ranked among the League leaders in high-danger goals (154, second), high-danger shots on goal (686; 10th), long-range goals (21; eighth) and long-range shots on goal (515; fifth). Kucherov excelled in those categories, but he also helped elevate others around him as he had 51 primary assists (third in NHL) last season.  

Jake Guentzel , who ranks second on the Lightning in goals (79) behind Kucherov (81) since the start of the 2024-25 season, finished among the League leaders in high-danger goals (26; tied for third) and high-danger shots on goal (116; third) last season. In his first season with Tampa Bay in 2024-25, Guentzel ranked second in the NHL in high-danger goals (27) and was tied for third in high-danger shots on goal (114). Guentzel also ranked among the forward leaders in mid-range goals (eight; 86th percentile) and mid-range shots on goal (62; 88th percentile) last season. The 31-year-old, who ranked highly at his position in skating distance at all strengths (252.15 miles; 96th percentile) and on the power play last season (37.79; 97th percentile), is tied for 10th in the NHL in power-play goals (25) over the past two seasons. 

Brayden Point led the NHL in high-danger goals (28) in 2024-25 and finished highly among forwards in high-danger goals (13; 83rd percentile) and high-danger shots on goal (69; 90th percentile) last season. Despite missing 19 games, Point ranked eighth in the NHL in 20-plus mph speed bursts (315) and was tied for sixth in 22-plus mph bursts (36). Point also finished highly at his position last season in max skating speed (23.46 mph; 94th percentile), offensive zone starts percentage (43.0; 93rd percentile) and skating distance on the power play (33.75 miles; 92nd percentile). 

Brandon Hagel scored a career-high 36 goals last season and ranked highly among forwards in high-danger goals (20; 97th percentile), mid-range goals (14; 97th percentile), mid-range shots on goal (92; 97th percentile), high-danger shots on goal (74; 93rd percentile) and long-range shots on goal (19; 89th percentile). Hagel, who is considered one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL, also ranked among the leaders at his position in skating distance on the penalty kill (21.30 miles; 92nd percentile), 22-plus mph speed bursts (12; 92nd percentile), 20-plus mph bursts (166; 89th percentile) and max skating speed (23.22 mph; 90th percentile). Anthony Cirelli, who is Hagel's frequent linemate while short-handed, ranked in the 98th percentile among forwards in total miles skated on the penalty kill (26.17) and finished highly at his position in high-danger goals (15; 90th percentile), high-danger shots on goal (68; 90th percentile) and long-range goals (two; 93rd percentile). 

It's worth noting that defenseman John Carlson, who signed a two-year contract with the Lightning in the offseason, ranked highly at his position in long-range goals (five; 96th percentile), mid-range goals (six; 94th percentile), high-danger shots on goal (15; 97th percentile), mid-range shots on goal (34; 92nd percentile) and long-range shots on goal (67; 87th percentile) last season. Carlson could play a key role for the Lightning on their first power-play unit after Darren Raddysh, who led the NHL in long-range goals last season (nine), was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the offseason.

3. Vasilevskiy's consistency, saves from all three locations

Andrei Vasilevskiy  was tied for second in the NHL in quality starts last season (35; starts with greater than .900 save percentage) and ranked second in that category in 2024-25 (39). Last season's Vezina Trophy winner ranked highly among goalies in mid-range save percentage (.912; tied for sixth), high-danger save percentage (.844; tied for seventh) and finished just outside the top 10 at his position in long-range save percentage last season (.969). 

Vasilevskiy, who has won at least 30 games in nine straight seasons, also ranked in the top 10 in mid-range saves (414; fourth), long-range saves (308; ninth) and high-danger saves (352; 10th). The Lightning have finished in the top five in goals-against in each of the past two seasons and remain strong Stanley Cup contenders due to Vasilevskiy's consistent play and offensive support.