NHL EDGE stats behind Hertl’s bounce back in 2026 playoffs

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify three underlying stats behind Tomas Hertl’s bounce-back performance in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

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1. High-danger offense

Hertl scored his second go-ahead, game-winning goal of the 2026 postseason for the Vegas Golden Knights in their road win against the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final. The other such goal came at a crucial point in the Western Conference Final against the Colorado Avalanche, when Hertl scored with 11:39 left in the third period to give Vegas a 4-3 lead after they trailed 3-0 earlier in that game; the Golden Knights would go on to win and sweep the Avalanche in four games.

Those goals have come in a three-game span, and Hertl has overcome an early nine-game goal drought to open the 2026 postseason by having eight points (four goals, four assists) in his past eight playoff games. Hertl was also held without a goal over his final 20 regular-season games, so he did not score for 29 straight games (regular season and playoffs combined) prior to his first goal of the playoffs (against Anaheim Ducks in Game 4 of second round).

Hertl is tied for eighth in high-danger shots on goal during the playoffs (16) and ranked among the NHL’s top 10 in that category during the regular season. Hertl has scored four goals this postseason, two coming from high-danger zones and two from midrange (including his goal in Game 1 of the Cup Final). The Golden Knights lead the 2026 playoffs in high-danger goals (36), and Hertl is one of Vegas’ NHL-leading 10 players with multiple high-danger goals this postseason (no other team has more than seven). Hertl’s teammate Brett Howden, who now leads the NHL postseason in goals (11), has the most high-danger goals in the League (seven) during the playoffs.

2. Scoring chances

Hertl was tied with Jack Eichel, Pavel Dorofeyev, Taylor Hall and K’Andre Miller for the most shot attempts in Game 1 of the Cup Final (seven each). Four of Hertl’s seven shot attempts in Game 1 came on the power play, where he frequently plays on the first unit with high-scoring forwards Mitch Marner, Eichel, Mark Stone and Dorofeyev.

NHL EDGE IQ insights: Hertl had the most scoring chances of any player in Game 1 of the Cup Final (five). Scoring chances are defined as inferenced shot attempts with a “Projected Goal Rate” (PGR) greater than or equal to 5.0 percent; inferenced shot attempts exclude those taken from outside of 60 feet or beyond the goal line, and empty-net situations.

Four of Hertl’s five scoring chances in Game 1 came on the power play, and his goal came on his lone even-strength scoring chance of the series opener. Hertl ranks second on the Golden Knights in scoring chances this postseason (41 in 17 games) behind Dorofeyev (45). Vegas took over the possession battle in the second period of Game 1, outchancing Carolina by a 13-1 in that frame. 

Hertl also ranks in the 86th percentile in offensive zone time percentage (46.6) this postseason and was even stronger during the regular season (47.7; 98th percentile at position), showing he had strong underlying numbers despite his long goal drought.

3. Clutch go-ahead goals

All four of Hertl’s goals this postseason have come in the third period, which is tied for the third most in the NHL (behind Howden, Nathan MacKinnon with five each). Hertl’s goal in Game 1 of the Cup Final came on a highlight-reel backhanded assist from frequent linemate Colton Sissons; that goal, which came on an offensive zone play, had a PGR of 9.72 percent. In Game 1 of the Cup Final, Hertl played mostly on a line with Sissons and Stone, who has also been a clutch goal-scorer for Vegas (five goals, including two go-ahead goals, this postseason).

Hertl gave Vegas the lead with 3:24 left in regulation, marking the latest go-ahead goal in a Cup Final opener since 2017, when Jake Guentzel scored with 3:17 left for the Pittsburgh Penguins against the Nashville Predators. It was Vegas’ seventh go-ahead in the third period this playoffs (franchise record for single postseason); no other team has had more than three such goals this postseason.

Hertl’s most impressive goal of the postseason was his game-winning goal in Game 3 of the conference finals; his individual effort to evade Sam Malinski off the rush and slice through the Avalanche’s defense led to a goal that had a PGR of only 7.39 percent. Hertl has scored two goals on offensive zone plays and two goals off the rush this postseason.

Hertl, who is appearing in his second Cup Final series (other: 2016 with San Jose Sharks against Penguins), has scored 32 goals in 97 career playoff games, including seven game-winning goals. Hertl scored a goal in Game 1 of the 2016 Cup Final but dealt with injury later in the series, missing Games 3-6 as the Penguins won the championship. Hertl’s only overtime goal of his postseason career came with the Sharks in 2019; Hertl scored in double overtime in Game 6 on the road against Vegas to stave off elimination (Sharks won that first-round series in seven games after trailing 3-1).