McKenna, Stenberg have experts divided on No. 1 pick in 2026 NHL Draft

The Upper Deck 2026 NHL Draft will be held June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. The first round will take place June 26 (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS) with rounds 2-7 on June 27 (11 a.m. ET; NHLN, ESPN+, SN). NHL.com is counting down to the draft with in-depth profiles on top prospects, podcasts and other features. Today, comparing left wing Gavin McKenna of Penn State University in the Big Ten and left wing Ivar Stenberg of Frolunda in the Swedish Hockey League. Full draft coverage can be found here.

The debate surrounding Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg started in whispers, among scouts hunched over tablets in dim arenas, general managers posing questions in empty hallways, and analysts arguing on late-night broadcasts.

Two left wings. One potential No. 1 pick in the 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft.

On one side of the Atlantic in Gothenburg, Sweden, Stenberg (5-foot-11, 190 pounds) took space, created angles, and battled in the trenches to generate offense. He finished this season with 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 43 games against grown professionals with Frolunda of the Swedish Hockey League. It was the fifth-most points in a season by a player 18 or younger in the SHL, behind Daniel Sedin (42 points, 1998-99), Markus Naslund (39, 1991-92), Tomas Sandstrom (36, 1982-83) and Henrik Sedin (34, 1998-99).

Quiet but confident, he'd help Sweden win the gold medal at the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship, tying for the team lead with 10 points (four goals, six assists) in seven games, including a goal and two assists in a 4-2 win against Czechia in the gold medal game. The 18-year-old then had eight points (four goals, four assists) and averaged 18:54 of ice time in eight games for seventh-place Sweden at the 2026 IIHF World Championship.

If Stenberg was precision, McKenna was momentum as the driving force at Penn State University in the Big Ten.

McKenna (5-11, 170) didn't just collect points, he changed outcomes. He finished with 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) in 35 games as a freshman, averaging more than a point per game (1.46) in a season that many believed was the best college hockey ever has looked.

He won a bronze medal with Canada at the WJC and twice was named his country’s player of the game; the first time was after he had a hat trick in a 9-1 victory against Denmark in the preliminary round, and the second came after he had a goal and three assists in a 6-3 win against Finland in the bronze medal game. He ranked second among all skaters with 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) in seven games.

Then there was the surge -- 33 points (10 goals, 23 assists) over his final 18 games at Penn State, giving scouts and general managers more food for thought.

There were claims that he was a much more productive player on the power play than at even strength, but the numbers tell a different story: McKenna had 27 points (nine goals, 18 assists) at even strength, including one 3-on-3 goal and zero points at 4-on-4. The 18-year-old had 21 points (five goals, 16 assists) on the power play.

He saw the ice differently and every shift felt dangerous. Still, choosing a favorite isn't easy.

"I don't know who's better," said Craig Button, TSN resident director of scouting and a former NHL general manager. "I'm being very straightforward. They're both really good within their profiles as offensive wingers. I think Stenberg leans a little bit more shooter, and Gavin leans a little bit more playmaker. But they drive play from the wing as offensive catalysts. They're smart and while I'd like to say, ‘This guy's definitely going to be better,’ I cannot put that stake in the ground.

"My point is there is very little, if anything, that separates these two guys. I think they both made significant progress over the course of the year. Gavin, after the first half, going to Penn State, I thought he really matured over the second half in understanding his game. That was a hard adjustment for him. Stenberg going to the SHL where he's trying to fit in. After the World Junior Championship, both these kids were really good for their respective teams. I mean, we saw what Ivar did in the World Championship. The thing is there's no Macklin Celebrini or Connor Bedard in this draft. ... It's not like that this year."

So, who's your pick?

"I will say on the record that based on my knowledge of McKenna, and I'm not discounting anybody else, if you're going to pass him up in the draft, you better be really sure," warned NHL Central Scouting senior western scout John Williams.

In a poll NHL.com conducted of 10 NHL scouts who were asked which player they would choose if given the option, McKenna earned a 7-3 advantage.

NHL.com sought the opinion of NHL evaluators who have watched McKenna and Stenberg this season. They promised honesty in exchange for anonymity.

In favor of Gavin McKenna

"McKenna has the ability to make others better,” one NHL scout said. “I think Stenberg has that bull mentality ... does a lot on his own and is a huge scorer. I just think McKenna has the vision, creativity, that makes others better. … Stenberg's closer to what he is, and McKenna's got a chance to really make others better. But the one key thing is that maturity piece, he's got to grow up a bit."

"I do think what he did in the second half this year at Penn State was spectacular,” a second scout said. “There were some doubts early on. In the first half it started slow, but I think once the World Junior Championship came around, he started to show more dominance. His hockey sense, his playmaking ... it's elite. He'd be a tough one to pass by come draft day."

In favor of Ivar Stenberg

"I have Stenberg ahead of McKenna and here's why,” another scout said. “First of all, I thought what McKenna did the second half of the season was a great response. College hockey is hard, and it's hard to score. The goalies are good, usually older, the players are heavier, so what he did was really good. I will say the order has more to do with Stenberg than it does with McKenna. I wouldn't say McKenna lost the No. 1 spot for me, I would say that Stenberg won it because the numbers that Stenberg put up in the SHL is, like, record breaking. I actually went back and watched all of Stenberg's goals and he's got a wire. There aren't a lot of guys that can beat goalies from distance. So not only is he creative, can he see the ice, he's got a wire. I also don't think we should punish Stenberg for already being sturdy. You can project McKenna to get stronger and he's going to have to get stronger. So it's OK to project (McKenna) at that, but let's not penalize Stenberg for already being sturdy enough to play against men."

"Stenberg is the most complete winger in the draft class,” a fourth NHL scout said. “His combination of skill, three-zone detail and overall compete stands out. Stenberg is equal parts play driver and shooter and a future first-line NHL forward who can be deployed in all situations if required."