Fantasy hockey breakout candidates with EDGE stats
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NOTES: Breakout candidates, usually younger players who have had some success in the NHL, can take another step forward and exceed their fantasy average draft positions (ADP) this season. Players excluded from the breakouts list are last season’s Calder Trophy finalists (Lane Hutson, Dustin Wolf, Macklin Celebrini) and this season’s rookie class (e.g. Ivan Demidov, Michael Misa, Matthew Schaefer).
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1. Mackenzie Blackwood, G, COL
After being acquired from the San Jose Sharks on Dec. 9 of last season, Blackwood was among the NHL leaders in wins (22; tied for fifth), goals-against average (2.33; fifth lowest), save percentage (.913; fourth) and shutouts (three; tied for sixth) among goalies to play at least 30 games from that date to the end of the regular season (37). Although Blackwood and the Avalanche lost to the Dallas Stars in seven games in the Western Conference First Round, he remains their No. 1 option over backup Scott Wedgewood and is third in NHL.com's goalie rankings behind Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets and Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Blackwood, who had career bests in wins (28), goals-against average (2.55) and shutouts (four) last season, has a chance to reach another gear in fantasy over a full season with the Avalanche's elite goal support (3.33 goals per game; sixth in NHL). UPDATE: Blackwood (undisclosed) is week to week but is hopeful for the start of the season. -- Pete Jensen
2. Juraj Slafkovsky, F, MTL
Slafkovsky set career highs in points (51), assists (33) and hits (194; led team) in 79 games last season. He finished the season strong with 22 points (10 goals, 12 assists) in 27 games and ranked second on the Canadiens in even strength points (19) over that span. Slafkovsky’s 346 hits over the past two seasons ranks ninth among players with at least 35 goals. The 21-year-old wing has breakout potential in his fourth season and brings exposure to Nick Suzuki, who was tied for 13th in the NHL in points (89) last season and Cole Caufield who was tied for 13th in goals (37). Per NHL EDGE stats, Slafkovsky ranked among the leaders at his position in high-danger shots on goal (56; 84th percentile) and total miles skated on the power play (30.90; 89th percentile). -- Chris Meaney
3. Quinton Byfield, F, LAK
Byfield, the No. 2 pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, has had consecutive seasons of at least 20 goals and 54 points and is coming off his highest goal total (23; fourth on Kings) thanks to a six-game goal streak from March 5-15. The 22-year-old is a part of a deep forward group in Los Angeles (177 5-on-5 goals; eighth in NHL) but is a clear fantasy breakout candidate with plenty of goal scorers around him in Fiala, Kempe, Andrei Kuzmenko (39 with Vancouver Canucks in 2022-23) and Alex Laferriere (19 last season). Per NHL EDGE stats, Byfield ranks highly among forwards in top skating speed (23.40 mph; 95th percentile), 20-plus mph speed bursts (295; 98th percentile), total skating distance (262.56 miles; 97th percentile), top shot speed (93.00 mph; 91st percentile) and midrange goals (11; 93rd percentile). -- Pete Jensen
4. Lukas Dostal, G, ANA
Dostal, who had an NHL career-high 23 wins in 54 games last season, could reach another gear after the Ducks traded veteran goalie John Gibson to the Detroit Red Wings this offseason. Per NHL EDGE stats, Dostal was the only goalie in the NHL to rank in the top five in saves from each major shot location region last season; he was fourth in high-danger saves (350), fifth in midrange saves (412) and fifth in long-range saves (371). With the addition of experienced forwards Mikael Granlund and Chris Kreider to provide more goal support and boost the power play in front of Dostal, the 25-year-old could reach the 30-win mark and perhaps even make the Ducks a dark horse Stanley Cup Playoff contender if their young skaters also take the next step. -- Pete Jensen
5. Cole Perfetti, F, WPG
Perfetti set NHL career highs in points (50), assists (32), power-play points (15), shots on goal (143), hits (71), ice time per game (15:11) and games (82) last season. Perfetti led the Jets and ranked third in the NHL (min. 10 games) in offensive zone face-off percentage (72.4) last season. The 23-year-old also paced the Jets in shot attempts percentage at 5-on-5 (52.4) in the regular season and in the postseason (59.0). Perfetti, who has 37 goals, including 10 power-play goals over his last two seasons, could see an increase in ice time at 5-on-5 and on the power play after forward Nikolaj Ehlers signed with the Carolina Hurricanes. Per NHL EDGE stats, Perfetti ranked among the leaders at forward in long-range goals (two; 93rd percentile), total miles skated at all strengths (210.81; 79th percentile), average miles skated per 60 at all strengths (10.16; 91st percentile) and total miles skated at even strength (188.51; 85th percentile). -- Chris Meaney
6. Marco Rossi, F, MIN
Rossi is coming off NHL career highs in goals (24), assists (36), points (60) and power-play points (16) but could reach an even higher gear in all of those categories if his frequent linemate Kirill Kaprizov stays healthy for a full season in the elite wing's contract year. Kaprizov has a high point ceiling (108 in 2021-22), and Rossi could also bring exposure to Matt Boldy, who was one of only 10 players to have at least 25 goals, 20 power-play points and 225 shots on goal in each of the past three seasons. Per NHL EDGE stats, Rossi ranked highly among forwards in high-danger goals (18; 94th percentile), high-danger shots on goal (67; 92nd percentile) and total skating distance (233.97 miles; 89th percentile). -- Pete Jensen
7. William Eklund, F, SJS
In his second full NHL season, Eklund led the Sharks in both assists (41) and shorthanded points (three), while also ranking among the team leaders in points (58; second), power-play points (16; second), even-strength points (39; tied for second) and power-play goals (six; tied for second). Per NHL EDGE stats, Eklund ranks highly at his position in top shot speed (93.69 mph; 93rd percentile) and total skating distance (236.04 miles; 90th percentile). Eklund, who’s only 22 years old, is a full-fledged breakout candidate that should be attainable outside the top 120 overall of most non-keeper fantasy drafts and is part of a strong young offensive core in San Jose with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith. -- Troy Perlowitz
8. Jet Greaves, G, CBJ
Needing a late-season surge to reach the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2020, the Blue Jackets turned to 24-year-old goalie Jet Greaves. In five games played over an eight-day stretch, Greaves went 5-0-0 with a .975 save percentage and two shutouts; while his heroics were not enough for Columbus to advance to the postseason, his underlying metrics over that span do suggest he can be a fantasy hockey breakout. Per NHL EDGE stats, Greaves stopped 46 of 47 high-danger shots faced (.979 high-danger save percentage), as well as 45 of 47 midrange shots faced (.957 midrange save percentage), over the Blue Jackets' five wins. While Elvis Merzlikins could remain the No. 1 option to start the season, Greaves end-of-season performance is an indication he is ready for a regular NHL role. -- Troy Perlowitz
9. Logan Stankoven, F, CAR
Stankoven, who signed an eight-year contract to remain in Carolina this offseason, has untapped potential after having 38 points (14 goals, 24 assists) in 78 games last season, including nine points (five goals, four assists) in 19 games for the Hurricanes following a trade with the Dallas Stars in exchange for Mikko Rantanen on March 7. Per NHL EDGE stats, Stankoven ranked highly among forwards in midrange shots on goal (67; 90th percentile), but scored just one goal from that region of the ice last season. The 22-year-old should have a top-nine role for an offense that improved with the addition of wing Nikolaj Ehlers. -- Troy Perlowitz
10. Frank Nazar, F, CHI
Nazar, who played his first three NHL games in 2023-24 after he had 41 points (17 goals, 24 assists) in 41 games playing for University of Michigan, had 26 points (12 goals, 14 assists) in 53 games with the Blackhawks last season. The rookie finished strong with nine points (five goals, four assists) and 17:17 per game in his final eight games. The 21-year-old, who could center the second line in Chicago this season, had three of his four power-play points over his final three games last season after being promoted to the first power-play unit. Nazar led the United States with 12 points (six goals, six assists) in 10 games at the 2025 IIHF World Championship to help capture their first gold medal at the tournament since 1933. Per NHL EDGE stats, the No. 13 pick in the 2022 NHL Draft ranked in the 95th percentile among forwards in 22-plus mile per hour speed bursts (16) and 86th percentile in top skating speed (23.07 mph) last season. -- Chris Meaney
11. Barrett Hayton, F, UTA
Hayton had NHL career highs in goals (20), assists (26), points (46), power-play goals (seven) and power-play points (15) last season and was also tied for 15th in the NHL in game-winning goals (seven). Per NHL EDGE stats, Hayton was tied for eighth in the League in high-danger shots on goal (93), indicating he could have an even higher offensive ceiling; he scored 17 high-danger goals (93rd percentile among forwards) but had a high-danger shooting percentage (18.3) below the NHL average (20.4). Hayton is also among the fastest forwards, ranking in the 85th percentile in top skating speed (23.04 mph) and 86th percentile in 20-plus mph speed bursts (155; 86th percentile). -- Pete Jensen
12. Will Cuylle, F, NYR
Cuylle had career highs in goals (20), assists (25), points (45) and shots on goal (152) last season and could take on an expanded role at even strength and/or on the power play under new coach Mike Sullivan, especially after the Rangers traded Chris Kreider to the Anaheim Ducks this offseason. Cuylle, who played mostly on the third line last season, scored three game-winning goals and two shorthanded goals last season and was the only player in the NHL with 300 hits (301) and 20 goals. Per NHL EDGE stats, Cuylle ranked highly among forwards in high-danger goals (14; 87th percentile) and high-danger shots on goal (60; 86th percentile) last season, making him a potential net-front option for New York to turn to after Kreider thrived in that role for years. -- Pete Jensen
13. Marco Kasper, F, DET
Kasper had strong linemates in center Dylan Larkin and wing Lucas Raymond as a rookie last season and ranked tied for third among his class in even-strength goals (17). Kasper also provided strong category coverage of hits (156; second on Red Wings) and finished strong with a four-game point streak with five points (three goals, two assists) and 19 shots on goal in the span. At 21 years old, Kasper joins Raymond and defenseman Moritz Seider on NHL.com's top 100 keeper rankings and could see expanded power-play usage (four power-play points last season) in the years ahead. Per NHL EDGE stats, Kasper also excelled in terms of 20-plus mph speed bursts (163; 88th percentile among forwards). -- Pete Jensen
14. Philip Broberg, D, STL
Broberg took on an expanded role with the Blues compared to his previous seasons with the Oilers, setting career highs in goals (eight), assists (21), points (29 in 68 games) and average ice time (20:30 per game) last season. Per NHL EDGE stats, the 24-year-old has emerged as one of the fastest players at his position, ranking among the leaders in top skating speed (23.48 mph; 96th percentile) and 20-plus mph speed bursts (82; 92nd percentile) last season. Broberg also scored two game-winning goals last season and had a stretch of 12 points (five goals, seven assists) in 18 games from Feb. 8 to March 25, during which the Blues were 14-2-2. -- Pete Jensen
15. Anton Lundell, F, FLA
Lundell, who had 18 points (six goals, 12 assists) in 23 games in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs including 17 points at 5-on-5 (tied for sixth in NHL), set career highs in points (45), assists (28), hits (110) and average ice time (16:43 per game) last regular season. Lundell showed great chemistry with forwards Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen as they combined for 57 points (43 at 5-on-5) in the postseason. Per NHL EDGE stats, Lundell ranked in the 93rd percentile among forwards in offensive zone time percentage at even strength (44.4) last regular season and was a standout in the postseason; fifth in NHL in high-danger goals (six), and ranked highly at his position in high-danger shots on goal (14; 91st percentile), midrange shots on goal (11; 90th percentile) and long-range shots on goal (five; 96th percentile). Lundell can reach another gear in a top-six role after the season-ending injury to Aleksander Barkov. -- Chris Meaney
16. Bobby McMann, F, TOR
McMann set NHL career-highs in points (34), goals (20), assists (14), power-play points (six), shots on goal (169), game-winning goals (five), hits (136), games played (74) and ice time per game (14:30) last season. McMann, who scored 15 goals and had 117 hits in 56 games in his rookie season in 2023-24, has strong category coverage and breakout potential after the Maple Leafs traded Mitch Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights on July 1. McMann is tied for fourth on the team in shots on goal per game (2.21) over the past two seasons and could see a more consistent role inside the top-six and second power-play unit. Per NHL EDGE stats, McMann ranked among the leaders at forward in many skating metrics, including 22-plus mile per hour speed bursts (25; 97th percentile), 20-plus mph bursts (202; 95th percentile) and top skating speed (23.40 mph; 95th percentile). -- Chris Meaney
17. Jack Quinn, F, BUF
Quinn, who scored 14 goals in his rookie season in 2022-23, had career highs in goals (15), assists (24), points (39) and power-play points (13) in 74 games last season. Per NHL EDGE stats, Quinn ranked in the 88th percentile in midrange shots on goal (61) and 81st percentile in midrange goals (eight) among forwards last season. He finished the season strong with 15 points (five goals, 10 assists) over his final 16 games. The No. 8 pick in the 2020 NHL Draft has breakout potential with a chance to play on the top line and/or first power-play unit with elite forward Tage Thompson, who was tied for third in the NHL in goals (44) last season, after the Sabres traded JJ Peterka to the Utah Mammoth on June 26. -- Chris Meaney
18. Connor McMichael, F, WSH
McMichael, one of seven Capitals skaters to appear in all 82 regular season games, set NHL career highs in goals (26), assists (31), points (57), power-play points (10) and shots on goal (177) last season. McMichael also led Washington in 5-on-5 goals (22; tied for 17th in League), and his 13 multipoint games were more than double his mark in that category from the previous season (six in 80 games in 2023-24). The 24-year-old is part of a deep forward group in Washington (3.49 goals per game; second in NHL) but is a clear fantasy breakout candidate in an expanded role at even strength and/or on the power play. Per NHL EDGE stats, McMichael ranked among the forward leaders in 20-plus mph speed bursts (183; 93rd percentile), high-danger shots on goal (82; 97th percentile) and high-danger goals (15; 89th percentile). -- Troy Perlowitz
19. Matt Coronato, F, CGY
In his first full NHL season, Coronato ranked third on the Flames in goals (24) behind Nazem Kadri (35) and Jonathan Huberdeau (28) and was also among their leaders in points (47; tied for third), even-strength goals (19; second) and shots on goal (180; fourth). Coronato, who’s only 22 years old, is a full-fledged breakout candidate that should be attainable outside the top 150 overall of most non-keeper fantasy drafts and is part of a strong young core with goalie Dustin Wolf and rookie defenseman Zayne Parekh. -- Pete Jensen
20. Vasily Podkolzin, F, EDM
Podkolzin, who was acquired in a trade with the Vancouver Canucks in Aug. 2024, was the only forward to play in all 82 regular season games and 22 playoff games for the Oilers last season. Podkolzin had 24 points (eight goals, 16 assists), all at even strength, while playing in a mostly bottom-six role in Edmonton's high-scoring offense. He could reach another gear this season after Edmonton revamped its forward group, including the departures of Evander Kane, Connor Brown, Corey Perry, Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner. Per NHL EDGE stats, Podkolzin ranked among the leaders at his position in 20-plus mile per hour speed bursts (187; 93rd percentile), top shot speed (92.18 mph; 88th percentile) and top skating speed (22.99 mph; 84th percentile). The 24-year-old could thrive offensively with more ice time alongside the Oilers' elite talent. -- Troy Perlowitz
