The 2020 NHL Draft Lottery, or at least the first portion of it, will take place on Friday, June 26 (8 p.m., NBCSN, NHL Network), and though the Carolina Hurricanes aren't guaranteed to be a part of it, here's why it's still relevant for now.
Explaining the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery
How the Canes could win a top-three draft pick - or not
By
Michael Smith @MSmithCanes / Hurricanes.com
As is the case with most everything this year because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the
2020 NHL Draft Lottery
is a little different.
And a little convoluted, as well.
In its basic execution and structure, the draft lottery appears somewhat familiar. Separate drawings will determine the first, second and third overall picks in the 2020 NHL Draft, and the 15 teams not participating in the First Round of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs have the opportunity to move up in draft order.
Those 15 teams are comprised of the seven not involved in
NHL's 24-team return to play plan
, plus the eight losing teams from the 2020 Stanley Cup Qualifiers.
That's where it gets "a bit complicated," as
NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman joked
when he announced the league's return to play plan.
The draft lottery could be split into two parts. There could be three drawings, or there might be as many as six. It all depends on if any of the
winning lottery ball combinations
involve teams participating in the Qualifiers.
That is to say, the Hurricanes are one of 16 teams who currently have the opportunity to either win the Stanley Cup or the first overall draft pick; while it's impossible to accomplish both (which is a good thing), the either-or scenario remains for now, and that's a little different, indeed.
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Here's how the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery will work.
The initial portion of the draft lottery - and perhaps the only one necessary - will proceed as it has in years past, with a little twist. Three separate drawings will be made to determine the first, second and third overall picks.
The seven teams whose seasons have ended are ranked in inverse order of regular-season points percentage. The Ottawa Senators, who own two first-round picks, have a combned 25 percent chance to win the first overall pick. The Detroit Red Wings, who finished 2019-20 with a league-worst .275 points percentage, own the top odds otherwise (18.5 percent). The eight losing teams from the Qualifiers are represented as placeholders, currently denoted as Teams A-H.
Odds are consistent with years past
, so Teams A-H hold odds anywhere from 1 to 6 percent.
Should any one of the three winning lottery combinations belong to placeholder Teams A-H, a second phase of the lottery will be necessary and will be conducted prior to the First Round of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs. How many drawings are required in that second phase would be determined by how many picks are won by placeholder teams.
The eight eliminated teams would then each have a 12.5 percent chance of winning the initial drawing in the second portion of the draft lottery.
Let's sketch out some quick examples since this is a bit (unnecessarily) convoluted.
Say Detroit wins the first overall pick, and Ottawa wins the second overall pick, as the current odds dictate, but then Team A wins the third overall pick. This would require one drawing in the second portion of the lottery, and all eight eliminated teams would then have an equal, 12.5 percent chance of becoming Team A to win the third overall pick.
Here's another example.
Say Detroit wins the first overall pick, Ottawa wins the second overall pick and Buffalo wins the third overall pick. Since all three drawings were won by teams not involved in the postseason, a second portion of the lottery is not required.
So, will the Hurricanes be involved in the draft lottery? Maybe! It depends on two things: the first phase of the lottery, and the outcome of their qualifying round match-up against the New York Rangers.
The Canes will be involved in the draft lottery if: one of Teams A-H wins any one of the three lottery drawings in the first phase AND the Canes lose in the qualifying round.
The Canes will not be involved in the draft lottery if: none of Teams A-H wins any one of the three lottery drawings in the first phase OR the Canes win in the qualifying round.
Or, the Canes could just win the Stanley Cup, and these 700-some words are totally moot anyway.
