Draft day dynamics: How Stars have found immense value in recent drafts

If you were to redo the 2021 NHL entry draft today, there are some hockey experts who say that Wyatt Johnston would go first overall.

That’s stunning in a lot of ways. Yes, it was a “COVID” draft and there wasn’t as much data on players, so getting Johnston at 23rd overall was indeed a steal (especially when you consider that the Stars initially traded back in the first round). But to get first-overall value – any first-overall value – is huge for a franchise.

Mike Modano is the only first overall pick in the history of the organization. To get anything close to that is a heck of a boost. If you redo the 2015 draft, Roope Hintz (49th overall) typically moves up 40 spots. Logan Stankoven (47th overall) gets taken 30 spots higher in the 2021 draft. Thomas Harley (18th overall) moves up about seven spots in 2019 re-drafts.

In 2017, Dallas took Miro Heiskanen third overall, Jake Oettinger 26th and Jason Robertson 39th. In at least one draft redo, all three are taken in the top 10.

That’s some serious value.

It’s one of the reasons Dallas has the third most playoff wins in the league since GM Jim Nill came on board in 2013. It’s one of the reasons the team is hoping even better years are ahead.

“The draft is a huge part of everything we do,” said Nill as he prepares for next weekend’s annual ritual. “Acquiring players is everything, and so we are focused in that area every single day.”

Nill knows free agency and trades are also big, but establishing a personnel base through the draft makes everything else easier. The Stars were able to acquire Mikko Rantanen because they had Stankoven. They hopefully can manage a very tight cap because of players like Mavrik Bourque and Lian Bichsel.

It all works together.

At the base of the draft success is Nill’s history as a scout. He worked in Ottawa and Detroit first as a scout and then in management. He built a scout’s mentality in Dallas by bringing in close friend Joe McDonnell to run the draft, and Nill gives McDonnell credit for a lot of the acquisitions.

“I think Wyatt [Johnston] is a prime example of what Joe does,” Nill said. “He was on top of that even though Wyatt didn’t play his draft year. He’s a great example of putting the work in every day.”

McDonnell said the key for him is teamwork. He said he has a great group of scouts who enjoy lively discussion and put the work in on the road.

“It really is showing up every day,” he said from his home base in Ontario. “It’s dealing with the travel and the weather and doing it the old-fashioned way. I think that’s a key for all of us.”

Now, drafting is a fickle thing. Dallas didn’t have a great hit rate in the first few years under Nill. First-round picks like Julius Honka and Denis Gurianov never really panned out in the NHL. And yes, players like Valeri Nichushkin, Jason Dickinson and Ty Dellandrea are still in the league, but they’re not playing for the Stars. That’s why getting a year like 2017 can really set you up for many years to come.

“That was a huge year, and it shows you how everything has to come together,” Nill said.

Dallas won the draft lottery and moved from eighth to third overall. That opened the door to take Heiskanen, and that set up the rest of the draft. Had Dallas picked eighth, they likely would have taken a forward and then gone chasing a defenseman later. That means they wouldn’t have scooped up Robertson, another OHL player in McDonnell’s backyard.

Fate? Yes. Smart? Also yes.

So as the team looks at the season ahead, it has one of the truly homegrown rosters in the league. Among the draft picks are: Heiskanen, Johnston, Robertson, Oettinger, Bourque, Bichsel, Harley, Hintz, Esa Lindell, Jamie Benn, and Radek Faksa.

In the 2025-26 season alone, seven of the team’s top nine scorers were drafted by the organization. No other team in the NHL accomplished that feat.

That creates a vibe of familiarity and loyalty. The players know each other and they know their team. So if the coach changes, the overall message still carries through. And if players have to leave, there is a belief that the organization has trust in the next batch of prospects.

Nill is quick to point out that the draft is only one piece of the puzzle. Because the team has traded away a lot of picks in recent years to make long playoff runs, it has had to find new ways to discover young, cheap talent. As such, players like Justin Hryckowian and Arttu Hyry have a very good chance of playing a significant role this season.

“You have to find all sorts of ways to find players,” Nill said. “That’s really something that is at the core of what we do.”

And if they continue to get more value than the opposition with the same opportunity, that can carry the team for years to come.

“I mean, there is still a lot of luck involved,” McDonnell said. “We have a great organization to develop the players, but each one is different and each one has his own path. You do the best you can and hope for the best.”

Though it seems the harder you work, the luckier you get.

This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.

Mike Heika is a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on X @MikeHeika.