NHL EDGE stats: Blue Jackets' bounce-back potential after coaching change

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify some key advanced metrics surrounding the Columbus Blue Jackets, who made a coaching change from Dean Evason to Rick Bowness on Jan. 12.

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have made the first coaching change in the NHL this season by hiring Rick Bowness to replace Dean Evason, and some of their advanced metrics suggest they could bounce back in the second half of the season.

The Blue Jackets were in last place in the Eastern Conference this season at the time of the coaching change but are only seven points out of Stanley Cup Playoff position entering games Tuesday. Columbus, which has missed the playoffs in each of the past five seasons, had the worst third-period goal differential (minus-24) this season at the time of the coaching change and also significant room for improvement in categories like goals per game (2.91; tied for 21st), power-play percentage (18.8; tied for 19th) and team save percentage (.891; tied for 17th).

But led by Zach Werenski, one of the NHL's top defensemen, and a young core that features talented forwards Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko, the Blue Jackets quietly led the NHL in 5-on-5 goals last season (201). Columbus hopes to rediscover its offensive form under Bowness, who had at least 46 wins in each of his past three seasons as a coach (Dallas Stars in 2021-22; Winnipeg Jets in 2022-23, 2023-24).

Here are three underlying metrics storylines that suggest the Blue Jackets could bounce back after their coaching change:

1. Werenski's advanced stats prowess

Werenski, the Norris Trophy runner-up to winner Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche last season, has one of the most robust advanced stats profiles in the entire NHL (percentile rankings among defensemen listed below):

• Max skating speed: 23.06 mph (96th percentile)
• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 82 (98th percentile; eighth among D-men)
• 22-plus mph speed bursts: 5 (97th percentile; tied for sixth among D-men)
• Total skating distance: 158.54 miles (96th percentile)
• Power-play skating distance: 17.63 miles (93rd percentile)
• High-danger shots on goal: 11 (97th percentile; tied for fourth among D-men)
• Midrange shots on goal: 50 (99th percentile; leads D-men)
• Long-range shots on goal: 50 (95th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 10 (99th percentile; leads D-men and tied for sixth in entire NHL)
• Long-range goals: 3 (92nd percentile)

Per NHL EDGE IQ, the Blue Jackets had the third-lowest average Projected Goal Rate (PGR) against (5.17 percent) this season at the time of the coaching change, indicating their defense is not allowing as many high-quality scoring chances compared to most of the League. But Bowness is tasked with improving Columbus' penalty kill, which ranked fourth-worst in the NHL (76.4 percent) this season at the time of the coaching change, and inconsistent goaltending from Jet Greaves and Elvis Merzlikins.

It's worth noting Greaves finished last season on a five-game winning streak with a .975 save percentage and two shutouts in that span, giving him sneaky upside in the second half. This season, Greaves ranked 12th in 5-on-5 save percentage (.915; minimum 20 games) and had seven quality starts (greater than .900 save percentage) over his past nine at the time of the coaching change.

2. Shot metrics

One of the Blue Jackets' strongest underlying trends this season at the time of the coaching change was that they rank fourth in the NHL in shots on goal per game (30.3). But they dropped from first in 5-on-5 goals last season to 12th (95) this season at the time of the coaching change and rank 21st in 5-on-5 shooting percentage (8.9).

Marchenko, another EDGE standout, ranked among the forward leaders in midrange shots on goal (53; 98th percentile) and average shot speed (58.24 mph; 85th percentile) this season at the time of the coaching change. Like Werenski, Marchenko also ranked highly in midrange goals (nine; just outside NHL's top 10; 97th percentile among forwards) this season at the time of the coaching change. The Blue Jackets, as a team, ranked fifth in midrange shots on goal (401) but were only 16th in midrange goals (42) this season at the time of the coaching change, a specific area of potential improvement under Bowness.

3. Skating speed

Columbus ranked in the NHL's top 10 in both 22-plus mph speed bursts (71; sixth) and 20-plus mph speed bursts (1,147; eighth) this season at the time of the coaching change, led by Werenski's aforementioned ranks in speed categories. Per NHL EDGE IQ, the Blue Jackets have one of the best transition offenses with the third-most inferenced shot attempts off the rush per game (18.6) behind the Anaheim Ducks (19.6) and Carolina Hurricanes (19.4). NHL EDGE IQ defines shots off the rush as shots that occur within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line; inferenced shot attempts exclude shots over 60 feet from goal, below the goal line or against an empty net.

Of Marchenko's 16 goals this season at the time of the coaching change, 11 have been goals off the rush, the second most in the NHL behind Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers (15). Fantilli, the No. 3 pick in 2023 NHL Draft, scored a career-high 31 goals last season (tied with Marchenko for most on Blue Jackets) but has seen his shooting percentage dip from 16.2 last season to 10.0 this season at the time of the coaching change. In terms of max skating speed, Fantilli (23.39 mph; 96th percentile) and Marchenko (23.36; 95th percentile) were among the fastest forwards at the time of the coaching change.

Bowness, who helped Jets forwards Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele find their ceilings, has a chance to help Fantilli reach his full potential based on his elite underlying metrics (percentile rankings among forwards listed below):

• 22-plus mph speed bursts: 9 (94th percentile)
• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 114 (94th percentile)
• Total skating distance: 138.02 miles (94th percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 44 (94th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 6 (92nd percentile)

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