NHL EDGE stats impact of Marchenko-Knies trade

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at key underlying metrics storylines surrounding the trade that sent Kirill Marchenko to the Toronto Maple Leafs and Matthew Knies to the Columbus Blue Jackets.

IMPACT OF TRADE ON MAPLE LEAFS

1. Marchenko’s skating speed

The Maple Leafs acquired Marchenko from the Columbus Blue Jackets on Sept. 28 and signed him to a six-year contract extension, adding another prolific scorer to their top-six forward group. Marchenko, who had a career-high 74 points just two seasons ago (2024-25), is likely to play on a line with either center Auston Matthews or John Tavares and also share ice time with either William Nylander or rookie Gavin McKenna, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, at even strength and/or on the power play.

Marchenko brings plenty of speed to Toronto, which ranked 19th in 20-plus mph speed bursts last season (1,636) and 20th in 22-plus bursts (64). Marchenko had elite skating speed metrics with the Blue Jackets last season, ranking among the forward leaders in the following categories:

• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 301 (99th percentile; 10th in entire NHL)
• 22-plus mph speed bursts: 28 (98th percentile)
• Max skating speed: 23.36 mph (93rd percentile)

Per NHL EDGE IQ, Marchenko’s speed directly translated into offense; he scored 15 goals off the rush (goals scored within five seconds of a team crossing the offensive blue line) last season, tied for fifth in the entire NHL behind Connor McDavid, Dylan Guenther (21 each), Cole Caufield and Matt Boldy (18 each). Considering Marchenko was also among the NHL forward leaders in takeaways (45; tied for fourth at position) last season, his impact on both ends of the ice could go a long way towards Toronto making the Stanley Cup Playoffs after missing the 2026 postseason.

2. Marchenko’s elite shot metrics

Marchenko, who has excelled in advanced shot metrics, joins a Maple Leafs team that also has two of the NHL’s premier goal-scorers in Matthews and Nylander. Marchenko’s shot speed has made him one of the League’s most dynamic forwards in terms of mid-range offense.

Despite missing six games last season, Marchenko ranked highly in both mid-range goals (18; tied for fourth in entire NHL) and 70-80 mph shot attempts (131; tied for fifth among forwards). Marchenko was also among the NHL leaders in mid-range shots on goal (102; tied for 10th in entire League) and a standout among forwards in both 80-90 mph shot attempts (39; 94th percentile) and average shot speed (58.90 mph; 88th percentile). Marchenko also had strong perimeter offensive metrics during his breakout season in 2024-25; he ranked highly among forwards in mid-range goals (15; 97th percentile), mid-range shots on goal (84; 95th percentile) and long-range shots on goal (33; 98th percentile) that season.

UPDATE: Marchenko led Toronto in 5-on-5 shot attempts (eight) in his season debut and was tied for second on the team in shots on goal (four) overall. Marchenko played on a line with Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic and was on the first power play with Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Darren Raddysh. Per NHL EDGE stats, Marchenko had three mid-range shots on goal in his Maple Leafs debut (tied for second most across the League on Sept. 29).

In terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage last season, Marchenko ranked second among Blue Jackets forwards (52.9) behind Dmitri Voronkov (53.1); Tavares, meanwhile, was Toronto’s forward leader in that category (48.4). Marchenko's play-driving ability, along with Toronto's other offseason additions in McKenna and defenseman Darren Raddysh, should help the Maple Leafs significantly improve their offensive zone time percentage (38.9), which was worst in the NHL last season.

IMPACT OF TRADE ON BLUE JACKETS

1. Knies’ high-danger prowess

What the Blue Jackets lose in the perimeter offense of Marchenko could be offset by a power forward with Knies’ net-front presence. Knies has been among the forward leaders in high-danger shots on goal in each of the past two seasons; he ranked in the 96th percentile of that category last season (84) and 97th percentile two seasons ago (85 in 2024-25).

Knies was a dominant high-danger finisher in 2024-25 (22 high-danger goals; tied for 10th in entire NHL) and still ranked highly in the category last season (13; 83rd percentile) despite a significant dip in high-danger shooting percentage (25.9 in 2024-25; 15.5 last season). Knies, who has combined to score 52 goals, 11 on the power play, over the past two seasons, could also take on a first power-play role in Columbus after playing mostly on the second unit for Toronto.

2. Knies’ versatility

While Knies isn’t as fast of a skater as Marchenko, it’s worth noting Knies did rank in the 90th percentile among forwards in max skating speed (23.13 mph) two seasons ago (in 2024-25). Knies’ physicality and shot-blocking ability could also help him thrive under coach Rick Bowness, who’s entering his first full season with Columbus. Since 2023-24 (past three seasons combined), Knies is one of four players in the entire NHL with at least 60 goals (67), 500 hits (503) and 100 blocked shots (103); the others were J.T. Miller, Vincent Trocheck and Tom Wilson.

The Blue Jackets also recently re-signed top center Adam Fantilli, who’s the only player in the entire NHL over the past two seasons combined with at least 55 goals, 400 shots on goal (405), 240 hits (252) and 100 blocks (107). With the potential line combination of Fantilli, who will turn 22 on Oct. 12, and Knies, who will turn 24 on Oct. 17, Columbus has gained long-term stability in its forward group from this trade. The Blue Jackets, who are led by reigning Norris Trophy winner Zach Werenski (29 years old; two years left on contract) and also have a workhorse goalie in Jet Greaves (25 years old; three years left on contract), have a chance to contend for the third playoff spot in the Metropolitan Division this season.

Full NHL EDGE stats comparison: Marchenko vs. Knies