NHL EDGE stats behind Kaprizov’s historic goal-scoring for Wild

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at three underlying metrics storylines behind Kirill Kaprizov’s early case for the Rocket Richard trophy.

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Kirill Kaprizov leads the NHL with 14 goals in 14 games this season for the Minnesota Wild, with his elite advanced metrics making him the front-runner for the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy.

The only players over the past 30 years (since 1996-97) to score more than a goal per game through their first 14 games of a season were Simon Gagne (16 in 2005-06), Auston Matthews (15 in 2018-19) and Leon Draisaitl (15 in 2021-22). Kaprizov also became the eighth player in NHL history to score at least 14 goals in a single October. The only two players who scored more in October were Mario Lemieux (16 in 1992 & 1988; 15 in 1986) and Brett Hull (15 in 1990); the Wild play one more game this month against the New York Islanders on Thursday.

Since entering the NHL in 2020-21, Kaprizov ranks fifth in the entire League in goals (244 in 411 games), fourth in power-play goals (85) and tied for ninth in points per game (1.21) over that span. Together with fellow elite skaters Matt Boldy and Quinn Hughes, Kaprizov has helped Minnesota start the season ​​9-3-2 to lead the Western Conference. The Wild, who have never reached the Stanley Cup Final, look to build upon the momentum from winning their first Stanley Cup Playoff round (defeated Dallas Stars in 2026 postseason) in more than a decade (previous playoff series win was in 2015).

Here are three underlying metrics fueling Kaprizov’s historic goal-scoring start:

1. High-danger prowess

Kaprizov is tied for first in the NHL in high-danger goals (Draisaitl, Matthews, Artturi Lehkonen, Beckett Sennecke also have seven) this season and ranks fourth in high-danger shots on goal (21). He ranked in the 96th percentile among forwards in both of those categories last season.

NHL EDGE IQ insight: Kaprizov has scored five of his 14 goals off the rush (within five seconds of puck crossing offensive blue line) this season, which is tied for second in the entire NHL behind Connor McDavid (seven). Kaprizov has an average off-the-rush “Projected Goal Rate (PGR)” of 9.46 percent, ranking second in the entire NHL (minimum 20 inferenced off-the-rush shot attempts) behind only Draisaitl (9.80 percent).

2. Well-rounded shot metrics

Kaprizov is tied with Sennecke and Elias Lindholm for first in the NHL in tipped goals (three) this season and also ranks highly in both snap shot goals (five; tied for second) and backhand goals (three). Kaprizov’s shot speed metrics have helped him also thrive from perimeter zones.

Kaprizov ranks in the 95th percentile among forwards in 70-80 mph shot attempts (15) and 93rd percentile in 80-90 mph shot attempts (seven) this season. He also ranks in the 82nd percentile in hardest shot (86.95 mph) this season.

Last season, Kaprizov ranked in the 93rd percentile or higher among forwards in high-danger, mid-range and long-range shots on goal. He also ranked in the 96th percentile at his position in high-danger goals (19) and 95th percentile in mid-range goals (12) last season.

3. Offensive zone time

Kaprizov is a standout in offensive zone time percentage (the percentage of time that puck spends in offensive zone while game clock is running), ranking in the 96th percentile among forwards (48.1). He consistently ranks among the forward leaders in that category (90th percentile or higher in four of the past five seasons).

The 29-year-old is also a possession juggernaut, ranking second among Wild forwards in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (59.8) behind center Joel Eriksson Ek (61.1), his frequent linemate. Kaprizov also ranks second on the team and third in the entire NHL in shot attempts (103) behind Matt Boldy (115; leads NHL).

Kaprizov also continues to be a workhorse in terms of skating distance; the 2021 Calder Trophy winner ranks sixth in the entire NHL in total skating distance (48.34 miles) and leads forwards in even-strength skating distance (40.30 miles). Kaprizov also ranks ninth at his position in power-play skating distance (8.04 miles); Minnesota is sixth in the League in power-play percentage (26.5), which includes power-play goals in 10 of their 14 games this season.

Kaprizov, with a strong supporting cast that includes up-and-coming goalie Jesper Wallstedt (8-2-2; tied for first in wins), who leads the NHL in quality starts (nine; starts with greater than .900 save percentage), could have the Wild in Stanley Cup contention this season. With the backing of strong advanced metrics, he could also build a case for the Hart Trophy, especially if he leads the NHL in goals with at least 60.