NHL EDGE stats behind Crosby-Ovechkin rivalry

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify some key advanced metrics surrounding the late-season matchups between Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin this weekend.

Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, two of the NHL’s all-time greats, will match up twice this weekend -- perhaps for the final times of their illustrious careers. Their longtime teams, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals, are in Stanley Cup Playoff contention, and each forward remains among the leaders in key advanced stats categories.

Ovechkin, who’s 40 years old and expected to decide on his NHL future this offseason, is the League’s all-time leader in goals (928), power-play goals (331), overtime goals (27), game-winning goals (141) and shots on goal (7,094). Crosby, who’s 38 years old, ranks seventh all-time in points (1,761 in 1,419 games), while Ovechkin is 10th all-time in points (1,684 in 1,570 games); they rank first and second, respectively, in career points among active players. 

Entering this weekend, Ovechkin (first pick in 2004 NHL Draft) and Crosby (first pick in 2005 NHL Draft) have played against each other 99 times, the most among dueling No. 1 picks in League history. The Capitals and Penguins will play a home-and-home set with games Saturday at PPG Paints Arena (3 p.m. ET; ABC, TVAS) and Sunday at Capital One Arena (3 p.m. ET; HBO MAX, MNMT, truTV, TNT, SN360, TVAS).

Crosby holds the NHL record for career point-per-game seasons (21), while Ovechkin holds the League record for career 40-goal seasons (14). Crosby has won the Stanley Cup three times (2009, 2016, 2017), while Ovechkin has won the Cup once (2018). Both players also have plenty of hardware in terms of major NHL Awards:

Crosby and Ovechkin, who have each played their entire careers for their respective teams, are also two of the best Stanley Cup Playoffs performers in history. Crosby, who has won the Conn Smythe Trophy twice (2016, 2017), is tied for fifth all-time in playoff points (201) and ranks fifth in postseason assists (130). Ovechkin, who won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2018, is 12th all time in career postseason goals (77) and fifth in playoff power-play goals (31).

Here are three underlying storylines for the upcoming Crosby-Ovechkin matchups, including some comparable metrics between these generational talents but uniquely different players:

1. Shot speed

Ovechkin, a shot speed juggernaut throughout his NHL career, ranks eighth among forwards in hardest shot (97.30; 99th percentile) this season. Ovechkin also ranks second among NHL forwards in 90-plus mph shot attempts (32) behind Tage Thompson of the Buffalo Sabres (44) and is just outside the top 10 in the entire NHL in that category this season ( John Carlson is 10th at 33).

Crosby also ranks highly among forwards in hardest shot (89.62 mph; 81st percentile) but does not have any 90-plus mph shots this season. Last season, Crosby ranked in the 95th percentile among forwards in hardest shot (94.48 mph), which was his highest mark of the puck and player tracking era (since 2021-22). Ovechkin’s hardest shot of the puck and player tracking era was 101.52 mph in 2021-22 (third among forwards that season).

In terms of average shot speed, Ovechkin (62.03 mph) ranks in the 94th percentile among forwards this season. Crosby’s average shot speed is 49.79 mph, which is just below the League average at the position (53.20 mph). Ovechkin, who has reached the 30-goal mark again (31), is tied for fifth in the NHL in snap shot goals (17) this season.

Since the start of the puck and player tracking era in 2021-22, Ovechkin ranks third in snap shot goals (59) and second in slap shot goals (42), while Crosby is among the leaders in backhand goals (23; tied for fourth) and goals tipped (27; tied for fifth).

2. Goals/shots by location

This season, Crosby has a slight edge on Ovechkin in terms of high-danger goals and high-danger shots on goal (percentile rankings among forwards listed below):

This season:
• Crosby’s high-danger goals: 16 (93rd percentile)
• Ovechkin’s high-danger goals: 14 (88th percentile)

• Crosby’s high-danger shots on goal: 61 (87th percentile)
• Ovechkin’s high-danger shots in goal: 60 (87th percentile)

Since the start of the puck and player tracking era in 2021-22, Crosby holds a more significant edge in both high-danger goals and high-danger shots on goal compared to Ovechkin over those five seasons combined, with Crosby (380 games) and Ovechkin (373) playing close to the same number of games in that span:

Puck and player tracking era (since 2021-22):
• Crosby’s high-danger goals: 97
• Ovechkin’s high-danger goals: 67

• Crosby’s high-danger shots on goal: 420
• Ovechkin’s high-danger shots on goal: 276

That said, Ovechkin’s bread and butter is his midrange offense, most notably his dominant one-timer from the left side of the ice. This season, Ovechkin ranks sixth in the entire NHL in midrange shots on goal (102; 99th percentile) and has scored nine midrange goals (90th percentile). Crosby, meanwhile, has scored six midrange goals (80th percentile) on 40 midrange shots on goal (75th percentile) this season.

Ovechkin has ranked in the top 10 of midrange shots on goal during each of the five seasons during the puck and player tracking era (since 2021-22). Ovechkin led the NHL in both midrange goals (24) and midrange shots on goal (176) in 2021-22. Ovechkin has also been near the top of the forward ranking in long-range shots on goal and long-range goals in recent seasons, showing he has more shooting range than Crosby.

3. Skating metrics

In terms of various advanced metrics, Crosby’s two-way prowess and playmaking ability have made him widely regarded as one of the most complete players in NHL history. Crosby, even in the later stages of his career, ranks among the forward leaders in offensive zone time percentage (46.1; 94th percentile) and 20-plus mph speed bursts (137; 84th percentile) this season. Ovechkin also ranks highly at his position in offensive zone time percentage (44.6; 81st percentile) but has only had 12 speed bursts of 20-plus mph this season.

Crosby, who ranks eighth all-time in career assists (1,107), has remained an elite distributor in recent seasons; he ranks 11th in primary assists (162) since the start of the puck and player tracking era (since 2021-22). Crosby is also among the forward leaders in takeaways over those past five seasons (219; 23rd at position).

But, for two of the best power-play point producers of all-time, Ovechkin (621; ninth) and Crosby (610; tied for 11th) are still making a significant impact to this day. In terms of power-play skating distance, Ovechkin ranks in the 95th percentile among forwards of power-play skating distance (35.53 miles) this season; Crosby, despite being limited to 67 of Pittsburgh’s 79 games this season, ranks in the 81st percentile (25.92) at the position. Last season, in terms of power-play skating distance, Crosby (33.62 miles; 94th percentile) finished slightly ahead of Ovechkin (31.35; 90th percentile).

So, even for what could be their final head-to-head matchups ever this weekend, Crosby and Ovechkin continue to power their teams offensively and in terms of advanced stats. With less than one week left in the regular season, the Crosby-Ovechkin rivalry will have the full spotlight once again for at least two more games with playoff implications at stake.