NHL EDGE stats behind Robertson’s offensive prowess for Stars

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify some key advanced metrics behind Jason Robertson's offensive prowess.

Jason Robertson has been a top 10 offensive player in the NHL since the start of the League's puck and player tracking era and continues to give the Dallas Stars -- a perennial championship contender -- hope of breaking through in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Since 2021-22, Robertson ranks ninth in both goals (192) and points (439 in 398 games) over the past five seasons combined. Dallas, which lost in the Western Conference Final in each of the past three seasons and lost in the Stanley Cup Final in 2020, will play the Minnesota Wild in the first round of the 2026 postseason and is seeking its first championship since 1999.

Robertson has reached 40 goals for the third time of his career this season (41; ninth in NHL) and has reached career highs in power-play goals (14; tied for eighth) and average ice time (20:21 per game). Robertson has also had four straight seasons of at least 80 points (91 this season; had career-high 109 in 2022-23); he leads the Stars in points, shots on goal (284; third in entire NHL) and game-winning goals (seven; tied for seventh in League) this season.

Robertson has played mostly on the top line and first power play with high-scoring forwards Wyatt Johnston (82 points in 78 games) and Mikko Rantanen (74 in 60 games) this season, helping Dallas rank second in the NHL in power-play percentage (28.7) behind the Edmonton Oilers (30.7). The Stars are second in the Western Conference standings (104 points) behind the Central Division rival Colorado Avalanche (112 points) this season.

Robertson, who was not selected to the United States roster for the 2026 Winter Olympics, has 25 points (nine goals, 16 assists) in 21 games since the Olympics break, including 13 power-play points over that span since Feb. 25 (tied for second in NHL behind Adam Fox's 15 over span).

Here are three underlying reasons for Robertson’s continued offensive dominance:

1. Goals by location

The Stars are one of two teams with multiple 40-goal scorers in Johnston (43; tied for fourth) and Robertson; the other is Minnesota, another Central Division team, with Kirill Kaprizov (43; tied for fourth) and Matt Boldy (42; tied for seventh). 

Johnston leads the entire NHL in power-play goals (26) and is tied with Tyler Bertuzzi of the Chicago Blackhawks for the most high-danger goals in the entire NHL (29 each). Robertson, meanwhile, ranks in the 94th percentile or higher among forwards in all three major goals-by-location categories:

• High-danger goals: 19 (97th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 11 (94th percentile)
• Long-range goals: 4 (99th percentile; tied for third among forwards)

2. Shot metrics

In addition to ranking among the forward leaders in all three goals-by-location categories, Robertson also stands out in shots by location, ranking in 97th percentile or higher among forwards in all three categories. Robertson is one of two forwards (other: Nathan MacKinnon of Avalanche) to rank in the 90th percentile of all three shots by location and all three goals by location categories this season:

• High-danger shots on goal: 104 (99th percentile; eighth in NHL)
• Midrange shots on goal: 96 (98th percentile)
• Long-range shots on goal: 28 (97th percentile)

Although Robertson was also a juggernaut in terms of goals and shots on goal by location last season, he has been getting to high-danger areas more often this season. He has surpassed the century mark in high-danger shots on goal through 78 games this season under new coach Glen Gulutzan after having 67 in that category (92nd percentile among forwards) in 82 games last season.

Robertson has also ranked in the 80th percentile or higher among forwards in hardest shot in each of the past two seasons; his hardest shot this season was 90.18 mph (84th percentile among forwards), while his hardest attempt last season was 90.30 mph (80th percentile at position).

3. Skating metrics

Robertson has shouldered a heavy workload in terms of skating distance this season, ranking in the 97th percentile among forwards in miles skated at all strengths (245.61; career high), 98th percentile in miles skated at even strength (206.98) and 98th percentile in miles skated on the power play (38.32; career high). Robertson also ranks highly among forwards in offensive zone time percentage (45.7; 91st percentile) this season.

But although Robertson continues to rattle off brilliant regular seasons, he has been more inconsistent in the postseason with 44 points (18 goals, 26 assists) in 56 career playoff games. He has been quiet in some of the earlier rounds over the past three postseasons and also shown flashes of his dominant form in the conference finals, but Dallas lost all three of those series:

• 2023 WCF vs. VGK: 6 points (5 goals, 1 assist) in 6 games
• 2024 WCF vs. EDM: 4 points (3 goals, 1 assist) in 6 games (no points over final 3 games)
• 2025 WCF vs. EDM: 5 points (4 goals, 1 assist) in 5 games

It’s worth noting Robertson also has past chemistry with center Roope Hintz (limited to 53 games this season because of injury) and gives Dallas plenty of versatility entering the postseason. Despite Hintz missing 31 games over the past two seasons combined, he has assisted on 27 of Robertson's 76 goals over that span, the most of any Stars teammate.

Robertson, who did not play in the 2020 playoffs when the Stars reached the Stanley Cup Final (his rookie season was in 2020-21), is entering the prime of his career at 26 years old and also in his contract year (potential restricted free agent after this season), setting the stage for perhaps his best postseason yet.