NHL EDGE stats: Kucherov building strong case for Hart Trophy

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we break down Nikita Kucherov’s chances of winning the Hart Trophy this season.

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Nikita Kucherov continues to dominate offensively for the Tampa Bay Lightning this season and is building a strong case for the Hart Trophy with elite advanced metrics.

Kucherov, who has won back-to-back Art Ross trophies and is contending for another this season (111 points in 62 games; second behind Connor McDavid's 115 in 69 games) with Tampa Bay, which has dealt with injuries to key players for much of the season. Kucherov, who won the Hart Trophy in 2019, has been a finalist for the award in each of the past two seasons and leads the entire NHL in points (376 in 221 games) over the past three seasons combined (since start of 2023-24).

The 32-year-old, who has missed four games this season, has been on a scoring surge in recent months. Since Nov. 19, 2025, Kucherov leads the NHL with 93 points (28 goals, 65 assists) in 45 games, the most by any NHL player in a 45-game span during a single season since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96. Kucherov was as many as 22 points back of the NHL’s scoring lead earlier this season (prior to games Dec. 27).

Kucherov leads the NHL in four-point games (eight), four-assist games (three), multiassist games (22) and is second in multipoint games (36) behind McDavid (37). He’s also leading the NHL in points per game (1.79) this season.

Tampa Bay, which is in contention for its first Atlantic Division title since 2018-19 and also near the top of the Eastern Conference, ranks second in goals per game (3.53; behind Colorado Avalanche’s 3.73) thanks to Kucherov’s prowess and is allowing the fourth-fewest goals per game (2.76) thanks to superstar goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Here are three underlying reasons Kucherov can win the Hart Trophy this season:

1. Shot speed

Kucherov, who's well-known as a distributor, quietly ranks in the 96th percentile among forwards in average shot speed (62.64 mph) this season. Kucherov also ranks highly at his position in hardest shot (92.06 mph; 91st percentile) and is near the top of the forward rankings in 70-80 mph shot attempts (108; 99th percentile) and 80-90 mph attempts (51; 98th percentile).

The Lightning lead the NHL in 90-plus mph shot attempts (110) this season. Tampa Bay defenseman Darren Raddysh, who has had a breakout season (58 points in 59 games; seventh at position), leads the entire League in 90-plus mph shot attempts (78). Veteran defenseman Victor Hedman, who has been limited to 32 games this season, ranks seventh in the entire League in hardest shot (101.42 mph).

Kucherov is tied for fifth in slap shot goals (seven) this season and ranks third in that category over the past three seasons combined (23; behind Steven Stamkos’ 33, Evan Bouchard’s 26).

2. Playmaking ability

Kucherov leads the NHL in assists per game (1.19) this season and ranks third in primary assists per game (0.69), very close behind the top two of McDavid (0.72) and David Pastrnak (0.71).

During a season where two of his longtime teammates, Hedman and forward Brayden Point (limited to 48 games), each missed significant time because of injuries, Kucherov ranks highly among forwards in key advanced stats like power-play skating distance (35.71 miles; 99th percentile; eighth at position), offensive zone time percentage (45.6; 91st percentile) and offensive zone start percentage (43; 94th percentile).

3. Shots by location

Kucherov is tied for ninth among forwards in long-range shots on goal (29) and ranks in the 95th percentile at the position in midrange shots on goal (68), high-danger goals (15), midrange goals (10) and long-range goals (two) this season. He's also tied for third in high-danger shooting percentage (41.7), helping him rank among the NHL leaders in goals (37; tied for fifth) this season.

Kucherov is on pace for his fourth career 40-goal season, which would tie him with Point for the second most in Lightning history behind Stamkos (seven). Kucherov now has nine 30-goal seasons, tied with Stamkos for the most in franchise history.

The Lightning won the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021 and have three Stanley Cup Final appearances in the past six seasons. Kucherov has a chance to become the first NHL player since Martin St. Louis (with Tampa Bay in 2003-04) to win the Hart Trophy and Stanley Cup in the same season (2003-04).