NHL EDGE stats: Marner's case for Conn Smythe Trophy in 2026

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify some key advanced metrics behind Vegas Golden Knights forward Mitch Marner.

Mitch Marner has had a breakthrough Stanley Cup Playoffs with the Vegas Golden Knights, and his elite underlying metrics have made him the top contender for the Conn Smythe Trophy.

The 29-year-old leads the entire NHL in points (franchise-record 29 in 20 games) and assists (19) this postseason, far surpassing his previous best playoff point total (14 in 11 games with Toronto Maple Leafs during 2023 postseason). The Golden Knights, who acquired and signed Marner this past offseason, have advanced to their third Stanley Cup Final since joining the NHL in 2017 and are two wins away from the franchise's second championship in four years (won title in 2023). The Maple Leafs won a combined two rounds in Marner's nine postseasons with the team.

Marner has already scored 10 goals this postseason, more than doubling his previous career high (three in 2023 with Toronto), highlighted by the fastest hat trick (6:10) in Stanley Cup Final history in Game 3 against the Carolina Hurricanes.

NHL EDGE IQ insights: Marner's highlight-reel goal against the Hurricanes in Game 3 of the Cup Final had a "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) of 58.56 percent, making it the highest-probability inferenced shot attempt of that game. It was the highest PGR among goals scored on offensive zone plays this postseason, with Marner's crafty move and nifty shot helping him beat Carolina goalie Frederik Andersen. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts.

Marner has also had some other huge moments this postseason; he set up Brett Howden for a shorthanded overtime goal against the Utah Mammoth in Game 5 of the Western Conference First Round, scored the series-clinching goal against the Mammoth in Game 6 of that series, had another hat trick against the Anaheim Ducks in Game 3 of the Second Round, then scored another highlight-reel goal in Game 6 to help clinch that series, and had the primary assist on two of Vegas' five unanswered goals during their comeback win in Game 3 of the Conference Final against the Colorado Avalanche.

Including points, Marner also leads or co-leads the NHL in the following categories during the 2026 playoffs:

• Points (29)
• Assists (19)
• Primary assists (14)
• Shots on goal (53; tied)
• Shorthanded points (4)
• Even-strength points (17)
• Multigoal games (3; tied)
• Multipoint games (8)
• Three-point games (4)
• Four-point games (2)
• Hat tricks (2)
• Road points (17)

Marner was a key part of Canada’s 2025 4 Nations Face-Off championship and silver-medal team at the 2026 Winter Olympics; he scored the overtime goal against Sweden at 4 Nations and had the primary assist on Connor McDavid’s championship-winning goal in overtime against the United States last year. Marner also scored an overtime goal against Czechia in the quarterfinal round of the 2026 Olympics to help Canada advance to the medal round.

But, prior to joining Vegas this past offseason, Marner had yet to reach his full potential during previous postseasons with Toronto. Prior to this postseason, Marner had 63 points (13 goals, 50 assists) in 70 career postseason games with the Maple Leafs. This postseason, Marner has already matched or exceeded his previous career playoff totals in multigoal games (three this year; two with Toronto), power-play goals (two this year; one with Toronto), shorthanded points (four this year; two with Toronto) and face-off wins (23 this year; 10 with Toronto).

Here are some key underlying reasons Marner is the front-runner for the Conn Smythe Trophy:

1 . Shots by location

Marner is tied for second in the NHL in high-danger goals (six) trailing only his frequent 5-on-5 linemate Brett Howden (eight). Over his previous four postseasons combined since the start of the puck and player tracking era (since 2021-22), Marner had only one high-danger goal.

Marner has also seen a significant uptick in high-danger shots on goal compared to last postseason; he has 21 high-danger shots on goal in 20 games (tied for third in NHL) this postseason (his highest total of tracking era) compared to six high-danger shots on goal in 20 playoff games over the previous two seasons combined. Vegas, as a team, leads the NHL in high-danger goals (41) this postseason.

Marner has also nearly quadrupled his midrange shots on goal total this season (15) compared to last postseason (four).

2. Offensive zone time percentage

Marner has his best offensive zone time percentage (44.1) in a single postseason since 2022. By comparison, Marner had an offensive zone time percentage of 40.2 percent for Toronto during the 2025 playoffs.

Marner is also dominating other key possession metrics; he ranks third on Vegas in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (50.9; minimum 10 games played) and is second in 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 minutes (14.88) this postseason. Between his supporting cast of past Stanley Cup champions Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Shea Theodore and others and the guidance of new coach John Tortorella (hired March 29), Marner has reached another level during these playoffs.

3. Shot, skating speed

This postseason, Marner has the hardest shot resulting in a goal by a forward at 91.44 mph; that is his hardest shot attempt of the entire season (regular season or playoffs) and his hardest since Jan. 11, 2023 with the Maple Leafs (91.45 mph).

Marner also set his fastest playoffs max skating speed (21.70 mph) of the puck and player tracking era against the Mammoth in Game 6 of the first round.

Given Marner’s postseason heroics and the circumstances of his previous playoff career, he has built a strong enough narrative to win the Conn Smythe for Vegas and could even win the award in a series loss recently considering Connor McDavidwon playoff MVP in 2024 despite the Edmonton Oilers losing to the Florida Panthers in seven games.