EDGE stats behind Jets’ tying goal in Game 7 win

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we break down the advanced metrics behind Winnipeg Jets forward Cole Perfetti's game-tying goal in their eventual Game 7 win against the St. Louis Blues.

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Cole Perfetti scored the latest tying goal in a Game 7 in NHL history with three seconds left in the third period of the Winnipeg Jets’ 4-3 comeback win against the St. Louis Blues. The goal included a series of events that have been highlighted by NHL EDGE IQ data.

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NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal at the point of puck release. The actual goal rate (AGR) of all shot attempts this regular season across the League is 5.1 percent. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt.

Perfetti tied the game, 3-3, on a tip-in shot, which had a PGR of 15.64 percent, making it a high-probability attempt. But the play came a long way after key passes from Adam Lowry to Nikolaj Ehlers and then Ehlers to Kyle Connor, whose one-timer pass was tipped in by Perfetti.

Ehlers initially attempted a one-timer of his own from the left point with 6.3 seconds left, which was classified as a missed shot, before the puck was corralled with around 5.0 seconds left by Lowry near the left face-off dot and passed back to Ehlers. Then, Ehlers made a heads-up play on a cross-ice pass from the left point to Connor, who was inside the right circle. Connor’s ensuing pass found Perfetti in the slot for the goal.

When Ehlers attempted his shot, which was missed, the attempt had a PGR of 1.05 percent, making it a very low-probability attempt. But, during the two seconds beginning right before Lowry passed the puck to Ehlers and ending with Perfetti’s goal, the puck had an average speed of 45 miles per hour and even reached a speed of 55 mph when crossing the meridian (middle of ice perpendicular to redline) on Ehlers’ pass to Connor.

Lowry was the unsung hero to get the play back on track before Ehlers made a skilled pass on the secondary assist during this fast, high-pressure situation. Then, later in the game, Lowry scored the winning goal in double overtime, becoming the second captain in NHL history to score an overtime goal in a Game 7 (joining Steve Yzerman from 1996 Conference Semifinals).

Perfetti, with two goals in Game 7, scored three goals in the seven-game series, two coming from the high-danger area (including tying goal in series finale). Only Connor (three high-danger goals; tied for NHL lead) had more high-danger goals on the Jets than Perfetti and Lowry, who are among those tied for the second most League-wide in the category (two each). Perfetti is also tied for third in the NHL in high-danger shots on goal (11; behind ​​Colorado Avalanche wing Artturi Lehkonen’s 16, Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz’s 12).

Factoring in the pressure of that sequence late in regulation on top of the fact that the Jets were playing without their No. 1 center Mark Scheifele and defenseman Josh Morrissey because of injuries, the PGR of Ehlers’ initial shot compared to Perfetti’s goal (thanks to three passes in between) led to an approximate 14-percent increase in PGR. This spike made all the difference in the Jets tying the game, making it possible for them to advance to face the Stars in the Western Conference Second Round.

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More EDGE stats for Perfetti