Mikko Rantanen Stars

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we break down the advanced metrics behind Dallas Stars forward Mikko Rantanen’s hat trick in Game 7 against the Colorado Avalanche.

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Mikko Rantanen, who joined the Dallas Stars prior to the NHL Trade Deadline after being moved by the Colorado Avalanche in a separate deal earlier this season, delivered an epic performance in a Game 7 comeback win against his former team with plenty of advanced stats highlights.

Rantanen became the first player in NHL history to score a hat trick in the third period of a Game 7. He now has 11 points in his past three Stanley Cup Playoffs games after four points (three goals, one assist; all in third period) in Game 7 and ranks fourth among active players in career postseason points per game (1.28; 113 in 88 games).

The 28-year-old’s goal at 7:49 of the third period turned the tide of the winner-take-all game and came in a clutch situation with eye-opening underlying metrics.

NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal at the point of puck release. The actual goal rate (AGR) of all shots this season across the League is 5.0 percent. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt.

COL@DAL, Gm7: Rantanen rips one off the crossbar and in to cut the deficit in half

Rantanen’s midrange goal to open the scoring for Dallas was a low-probability attempt (PGR of 2.57 percent). Between Rantanen’s distance from the goal line (38.17 feet from goal line at point of release), Avalanche goalie Mackenzie Blackwood’s positioning and the fact that there were two defenders in the area of the shot, there was a good chance it could have been blocked. The skilled wrist shot propelled the Stars’ late rally.

In terms of shot location, Rantanen scored two midrange goals on two midrange shots on goal (one was empty-net goal) in Game 7. He ranks among the NHL leaders in midrange goals (three; tied for second behind former teammate Nathan MacKinnon’s four) and midrange shots on goal (eight; tied for seventh) this postseason. Blackwood allowed three midrange goals on 15 midrange shots faced over the final four games of the series against the Stars, all scored by Rantanen.

Rantanen then scored a wraparound goal on the power play that banked in off Colorado defenseman Samuel Girard’s skate at 13:46 of the third period, had the secondary assist on Wyatt Johnston’s power-play goal at 16:04 and capped off his hat trick to seal the victory with an empty-net goal in the final seconds.

Rantanen made the most of his 1.17 miles skated in the third period of Game 7 and has now skated 20.83 miles this postseason, which ranks in the 94th percentile among forwards.

Especially given the circumstances of Rantanen’s finish against the team he played his first nine-plus NHL seasons with and elevating the shorthanded Stars, who were playing all series with injuries to top defenseman Miro Heiskanen and fellow elite wing Jason Robertson, Rantanen truly had a performance for the ages.

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More EDGE stats for Rantanen

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