EDGE stats: Game-tying goals late in 3rd period during 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we highlight some underlying numbers behind the 11 game-tying goals scored in the final 10 minutes of regulation during the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

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There have been 11 game-tying goals scored in the final 10 minutes of regulation through the first 37 games of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, which is tied for the second most at this stage of a postseason in NHL history (same total as 1989; most was 12 in 1993).

All 11 equalizers late in the third period were scored by different players. While only four of these goals led to victories for the trailing team, eight of them forced overtime. The tying goals by Edmonton Oilers forward Evander Kane against the Los Angeles Kings in Game 3 and Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 4 led to eventual regulation wins for their teams later in those games.

Seven of the eight first-round playoff series have had at least one game-tying goal scored in the final 10 minutes of regulation (only series without one is Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues); the “Battle of Ontario” between the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs is the only series in which each team has had at least one equalizer late in the third period.

Here are three key advanced metrics behind these momentum-shifting goals:

Shot speed

Three of the 11 game-tying goals scored in the final 10 minutes of regulation this postseason had recorded shot speeds of at least 66.0 miles per hour, with Senators forward Brady Tkachuk’s goal against the Maple Leafs in Game 3 having the top shot speed (84.73 mph). Tkachuk scored with 8:38 remaining in the third, but the Maple Leafs won the game in overtime, one of three games in that series to go past regulation.

For context, Tkachuk’s top shot speed through five playoff games was slightly higher (86.66 mph against the Maple Leafs in Game 2; 87th percentile among forwards), and the NHL average in top shot speed this postseason is 77.87 mph.

Shot location

Of the 11 game-tying goals scored in the final 10 minutes of regulation this postseason, five have been high-danger goals. Two of those high-danger goals came by defensemen: Ekblad’s aforementioned goal in Game 4 and Jared Spurgeon of the Minnesota Wild against the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 4.

Of the other six equalizers late in the third period this postseason, four were from midrange areas, one was from long range (by Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard against Kings in Game 4), and one came from the net side to the right of the high-danger zone (by Oilers forward Connor McDavid in Game 1). Bouchard’s goal, which came with 29 seconds remaining in regulation, was the latest game-tying goal of the postseason so far.

Projected goal rate

NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal at the point of puck release. The actual goal rate (AGR) of all shots this season across the League is 5.0 percent. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt.

Of the 11 game-tying goals scored in the final 10 minutes of regulation this postseason, five of the recorded shots were high-probability attempts, led by Carolina Hurricanes forward Sebastian Aho’s goal against the New Jersey Devils in Game 3 (PGR of 26.44 percent). The recorded shot with the lowest probability of being a goal was Tkachuk’s aforementioned goal in Game 3 (PGR of 0.97 percent).

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