1. Knies’ high-danger goals
Per NHL EDGE stats, Maple Leafs wing Matthew Knies is tied for the League lead in high-danger goals (three) this postseason, accounting for nearly half of his team’s total in the category (eight; tied for eighth). The Panthers, meanwhile, are tied for the second-most high-danger goals (11) behind the Edmonton Oilers (15) despite having fewer high-danger shots on goal (33) than the Maple Leafs (42; sixth) and being below the NHL postseason average in the category (40.1).
Knies, who has been playing on the top line with elite forwards Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner and also the first power play this season, had NHL career highs in goals (29) and points (58) in the regular season. The Maple Leafs rank third in offensive zone time percentage on the power play (61.7) this postseason behind the Colorado Avalanche (62.6) and Carolina Hurricanes (62.5). It's worth noting the Panthers have a strong penalty kill (88.9 percent; second behind Hurricanes’ 100.0); Florida held the potent Tampa Bay Lightning to two power-play goals on 18 opportunities to win the Eastern Conference First Round Series between the teams in five games.
2. Stolarz’s midrange save percentage
The Maple Leafs goalie, who was 4-2 with a 2.21 goals-against average in six games against the Ottawa Senators in the Eastern Conference First Round, gives them a chance to win multiple rounds in a postseason for the first time since 2004. Per NHL EDGE stats, Stolarz’s midrange save percentage (.913) ranks fifth in the League this postseason, and his even-strength save percentage (.925) ranks fifth among goalies who have played at least four playoff games.
Stolarz matches up against Sergei Bobrovsky, his former teammate, who has the best goal differential of any goalie this postseason (plus-8). Stolarz will likely need to improve his high-danger save percentage (.800 in playoffs; ranks just above League average of .794) given the Panthers’ high-danger success this postseason. Bobrovsky, who started all 24 games for Florida during its championship run last playoffs (16-8, two shutouts), has stopped all 32 long-range shots he’s faced this postseason but has a save percentage of .800 on both high-danger and midrange shots faced, the same rate as Stolarz on high-danger shots but far behind his former teammate on midrange shots.
3. Offensive zone time of Florida’s key returning players
The Panthers have forwards Matthew Tkachuk and Brad Marchand (acquired from Boston Bruins prior to NHL Trade Deadline) back from injuries for the postseason. And, although defenseman Aaron Ekblad was suspended for Games 1 and 2 against the Lightning and will be serving the second game of a separate suspension in the series opener against the Maple Leafs, he scored the game-tying goal in Game 4 against Tampa Bay to turn the tide of that series.
Per NHL EDGE stats, Ekblad is tied for fourth among defensemen in offensive zone time percentage at even strength (47.2) this postseason. Of the eight high-danger goals scored by defensemen across the League this postseason, two have come from Panthers defensemen, including the tying goal by Ekblad in Game 4 (other was scored by Nate Schmidt).
Although Marchand has yet to score a goal this postseason, he has four assists in five games and a strong advanced stats pedigree; last postseason with the Bruins, Marchand ranked in the 91st percentile in offensive zone time percentage at even strength (44.7). Tkachuk, who has scored two high-danger goals this postseason (89th percentile), ranked highly in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths last playoffs (47.2; 94th percentile).
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EDGE stats team comparison: TOR vs. FLA
