Hey Heika: Previewing the twists and turns of the 2025 offseason

Howdy folks, it’s been a minute.

I was hesitant to do a Hey Heika because there is so much up in the air right now, but we can definitely discuss a few major points, and you have asked some great questions.

I guess my lasting impression of the end of the season is that a lot of things fell into place for this team, so it really does feel like a squandered opportunity. Because of the injuries during the regular season, Dallas was able to use LTIR to swing a few deals and add Mikko Rantanen, Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci before the trade deadline. The injury absences of Miro Heiskanen, Nils Lundkvist and Tyler Seguin allowed Dallas to give key minutes to players like Thomas Harley, Lian Bichsel, Mavrik Bourque and Oskar Bäck, and they took big steps forward in their development. The hope was that would make the Stars better in the playoffs and also allow Heiskanen to be well-rested.

All of that did work, in some ways, and Dallas was able to win two huge rounds against two Cup favorites, so the lads in Victory Green deserve a ton of credit for that.

But it just seems that they are still a notch below both Edmonton and Florida, and that is a concern. In using the levers of the system, Dallas had an actual cap hit of $97 million and laid out $107 million in cash for that roster. That’s significant overages for a salary cap that was $88 million. The guess is they won’t have that wiggle room in the future.

So the task seems to be to make sure that players like Wyatt Johnston, 22, Bichsel, 21, and Harley, 23, are getting better every year and taking on bigger roles. With Rantanen starting an eight-year deal at $12 million per season, they need to see if he really can consistently be one of the top 10 scorers in the league. Another task involves finding a new coach who can push the right buttons.

When you look at the division, it should be the toughest in hockey. Colorado is still great, Minnesota has a ton of cap space, St. Louis should be even better in its second season under Jim Montgomery. Utah should be better, Nashville should be better, Winnipeg is still Winnipeg.

It starts over, as it does every season, and the challenges will again be daunting. But that’s why we watch, that’s why we have hope that something great can happen. Otherwise, we’d just be negative online trolls who only want to criticize everything.

(Just joking there, that’s part of the fun of following this team, too.)

Okay, on to the questions.

@KevinJerpi: any updates on the coaching front? Any names you hear being circulated? Any confirmed interviews?

HEIKA: From what I hear, they are being very methodical. They don’t really need the head coach to be a part of the draft, so the target, I believe, is to have one hired before July 1. At that time, they have to make decisions on personnel and would like the head coach involved. The assistant coaches will be back, so I think that indicates that the new coach might have to adjust his style to fit what the Stars do. I don’t think that’s the worst thing. Ken Hitchcock actually grew up as a run-and-gun coach in the Edmonton area, and he embraced Bob Gainey’s defensive style. That worked out great. Bottom line, this is a good coaching staff, this is a good organization, and whoever comes in should be able to adjust and have quick success.

My guess is they want someone who has head coaching experience. They have no problem elevating a minor league coach who has been running things in the AHL or even in Europe.

@JesseCuster40: in your opinion what can the Stars do to make this work, & what contract would Matt Duchene realistically consider, for him to stay in Dallas? Ok his form dipped in the playoffs but a point per game season can’t be sniffed at surely?

HEIKA: Dallas signed Duchene to a four-year contract extension for an average cap hit of $4.5 million on Thursday, so that definitely is a big move. We’ll see how they can juggle the cap around now to make all of the deals fit. With a forward group that includes Rantanen ($12 million), Seguin ($9.85 million), Roope Hintz ($8.45 million), Johnston ($8.4 million), Jason Robertson ($7.75 million) and now Duchene, things are going to be very tight. He is a great player and his 82-point season (30 goals, 52 assists) was a huge part of the Stars finishing third in regular season scoring. But his 0.33 points per game and minus-16 in the playoffs is a serious issue. It is his second straight fall off in a postseason in Dallas (0.32 in 19 playoff games the year before) and he does not have a long history of postseason success. Obviously, the Stars think he can take the next step along with the rest of the team.

@Chi1pidip: Not all these salaries are going to fit. Who gets traded?

HEIKA: The Stars took the first big swing at making cap space on Thursday by trading Mason Marchment. That unlocks $4.5 million in cap space for the team to spend this summer. The other obvious targets are probably Matt Dumba (one year at $3.75 million) and Ilya Lyubushkin (one year at $3.25 million). Both were healthy scratches in the playoffs while Alex Petrovic was playing, so it sure seems that Petrovic can fill a spot on the roster for a much cheaper price. In addition, Lundkvist signed a 1-year, $1.25 million extension on Friday and should have a regular spot on the right side of the blue line. Robertson would get the most in a trade, and he would also alleviate $7.75 million from the cap, but he legitimately might be the team’s most natural scorer. After recovering from offseason foot surgery, he hit his stride in midseason and from Jan. 1 until the end of the regular season (46 games), he ranked fourth in the league in goals (26) and seventh in points (52). That tells you that he might really be a 40-100 guy like he was back in 2022-23. Now, that would come at a cost on a new contract extension, but keeping him at $7.75 million for next season could be a huge bargain, so that is all part of the discussion.

@AWoelfling: Hey Mike, I think one of the missed points Mr. Nill brought up at his press conference after the coach firing was the suggestion of a different style of play he is expecting in a new coach. Any thoughts here? Is there any inference to the team not standing up for each other?

HEIKA: I think the fact they are keeping the assistant coaches tells you that whatever they run next season will be an “adjustment” to what they did last year. All of the talk of being more physical, I believe, comes from outside the organization. They believe they are a strong puck possession team with several great two-way forwards, so I don’t really see them getting more aggressive. That said, new eyes will see things in a new way.

@ClayKenned45554: With the Stars unlikely to find a trade partner for Dumba, how much cap space can they free up by buying out the 2nd year of his contract?

HEIKA: Should they decide to go that path, it would cost $1.41 million this year and $1.16 next year. That would save you $2.3 million this year, but cost you an extra $1.2 million next year. They are carrying $1.8 million in Ryan Suter buyout and retained bonuses this year, so that’s also in the mix. You would like to stop this process at some point. The guess is they can find a trade partner, but it would likely cost them another draft pick or prospect.

@aces2812: Would bringing back Corey Perry on a one year deal be a fit for the Stars?

HEIKA: My theory is you wait until the trade deadline to add players like that.

@LaatoSamuli: With Rantanen now on the team and a new head coach inbound, will Stars transform from a depth team more towards a top 6 -heavy team?

HEIKA: They already kind of did in the playoffs – in part, because of Rantanen and in part because of the 11-7 format. I think what Rantanen did, having success on every line, will definitely allow the team to load up his minutes more.

@Roseoftexas1: Mike, will this be the year that the Stars, at long last, find Miro a worthy, right-handed partner?

HEIKA: That doesn’t seem to be a priority. They feel Heiskanen can be a good fit with either Harley or Esa Lindell, so that seems to be the plan. It will be interesting to see what they do with Nils Lundkvist, because they believe he has a high ceiling and he is right-handed.

@KitchenKC: what are the main reasons the Stars keep losing to the Oilers? That seems to be the only thing standing in the way of getting past the 3rd round, so what is it about that team that they don’t match up well against?

HEIKA: It has been different in both seasons. They clearly become a hard-scoring team in the playoffs, and that feeds confidence into Stuart Skinner. That said, they got bad luck in each of the series, and if a shot off the post or a near miss would have gone in, you never know how Skinner (as well as the Oilers and Stars) would have reacted. That Game 6 last year was about as good as the Stars can play. While I know it’s fun to talk about, you can’t really worry about beating one team. The guess is they would have lost to Florida in both seasons, and then we’d be talking about the problems the Panthers present.

This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.

Mike Heika is a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) @MikeHeika.