Skinner vs. Oettinger goalie matchup in Western Final 

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses, the last 100 goals allowed for each goalie in the regular season and every goal in the playoffs were charted to see what patterns emerge.

The Western Conference Final between Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers is a rematch of last season, but that doesn't mean we'll see the same goalies throughout.

While Jake Oettinger has established himself as the Stars starter, getting better as the playoffs have gone on after struggling at times down the stretch during the regular season, the Oilers could use either Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard. Skinner, who helped Edmonton past Dallas and to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final last season, is the presumptive starter after finishing the Western Conference Second Round with consecutive shutouts. But Pickard won six straight games before getting injured and giving way to Skinner and is expected back during this series.

Stuart Skinner

Edmonton Oilers

Skinner replaced Pickard in Game 3 of the second round and had those back-to-back shutouts to eliminate the Vegas Golden Knights while looking more controlled in his movements and contained in his positioning than at the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He yielded to Pickard after losing the first two games of the first round against the Los Angeles Kings.

Attack in transition: Rush-style chances accounted for 46 percent of the regular-season goals, well above the 35 percent average for the more than 8,500 goals tracked for this project since 2017. That includes 17 of the 26 goals scored on plays and passes across the middle of the ice that forced Skinner to move side to side, and three of four east-west goals in the playoffs so far. Those goals featured a combination of tendencies. The majority were finished with one-timers that beat Skinner across the ice. Though there were times early in the season his initial positioning was more aggressive and made it harder to get across, he seemed to rein it in as the season went on. There was still a tendency to slide on the first pass, sometimes higher in the zone than some peers, which can leave him more vulnerable to cutbacks and against-the-grain shots. Of course, you have to create transition chances to capitalize on them. In the back-to-back shutouts, the Golden Knights only generated three lateral rush attacks.

Right to left: Every goalie has a side they move better toward. For most it's to the glove, but for Skinner the opposite appears to be true. Of those 26 goals on side-to-side plays across the middle of the ice this season, 19 came on plays and passes that forced Skinner to move right to left, toward his glove. Those numbers don't represent a save percentage and we didn't track every shot, so it's possible the Oilers just gave up a lot more dangerous plays in this direction, but with a discrepancy that big, it's worth noting.

Bodies to the net for scrambles: Opponents scored 21 goals on plays that hit sticks, skates and legs in front of Skinner in the regular season, well above the 14 percent average, and three of 15 in the playoffs have come on similar plays. There were also 14 regular-season rebound goals, including 12 on second chances below the hash marks, where scrambles and broken plays can expose side-to-side recovery delays when moving from his knees, caused in part from having a narrower butterfly. These plays account for five of 12 goals scored through the five-hole during the regular season. Add in three more five-hole goals scored on screen shots that caught Skinner trying to look up and around traffic, and it's clearly important to create and win battles in front of the Edmonton net. Shots off the end boards also can create these scramble situations, stranding him outside his posts.

Stretch him out wide: That same narrow butterfly can leave Skinner reaching on lateral plays, whether on walkouts in tight or on breakaways, with a tendency to pitch his torso forward or lunge to create additional extension with the pads. The first trend can leave him prone on rebounds and the latter creates additional five-hole exposure while moving.

Calvin Pickard

Edmonton Oilers

Pickard replaced Skinner midway through the third period of Game 2 against the Kings and he won six straight starts before the injury. His backup status in the regular season means there were only 85 goals to look at, but the popular Pickard produced great results behind a team that appears to battle as hard for him defensively as he does for them in the crease.

Traffic jams: Pickard reads and anticipates well, so it's not shocking to see that taking away his sightlines leads to more goals. More than one-quarter (24) of the 85 goals he gave up during the regular season involved a screen, the Kings scored four more goals with traffic in the first round, and Vegas added one with Alex Pietrangelo's low shot from the blue line in Game 2 of the second round, all well above the tracked average of 15.1 percent. Screen goals weren't limited to in-zone plays either, with five during the regular season and one during the playoffs coming off the rush, often with Oilers defensemen not helping with loose gap control that allowed opponents to use them to hide their shot release.

Push him back: Part of the in-zone screen results are physical. At 6-foot-1 and with a narrower butterfly, Pickard doesn't cover as much net. He also tends to drift as he drops behind traffic, opening more net and limiting coverage to cut off deflections, which accounted for eight screened goals during the regular season and three more during the playoffs. Where to shoot also depends on where you are shooting from: Pickard uses a high stance to look over traffic when the puck is at the point, so quick low shots can be effective from distance, like Pietrangelo's in Game 2, but he lowers and tends to slide more into shots from mid-zone, accounting for 13 screen goals on elevated shots against the grain.

Blocker on clean looks?: The goal chart shows a discrepancy that might suggest shooting high glove side, but it's important to remember those don't represent a save percentage. Seven of the 10 clean look goals Pickard gave up during the regular season were on the blocker side (four were low shots, just over the pad, and three were high shots) and the Kings scored two of their four clean shot goals high blocker as well. Both were near-perfect shots just under the bar, but a tendency to turn and pull back with the blocker and blocker-side shoulder rather than cutting pucks off in front may make blocker side a preferred target.

High glove moving or screened: Of the 18 high-glove goals during the regular season, four were screened and 12 involved plays that got Pickard moving, taking advantage of a tendency to drop his glove from a high, fingers-up position in his static stance when he is moving east-west or on low-high passes, which accounted for 11 goals.

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars

Oettinger is no stranger to playoff pressure. He's been the starter in each of the past four seasons and this is his third straight trip to the Western Conference Final despite being just 26 years old. So perhaps it's not surprising that Oettinger appears to be getting better as the playoffs have gone on. He had a .929 save percentage in six games against the Winnipeg Jets in the second round, up from .911 in seven games during the first round against the Colorado Avalanche.

Create scrambles from bad angles: Goals scored on shots or passes that bounced off a body or stick in front of the net accounted for 23 percent off the regular-season goals, six of 20 in the first round against Colorado and five of 11 in the second round, all well above the 14 percent tracked average. Though the general rule for creating that chaos is to get bodies to the net, Oettinger handles screen shots well, but nine of the 23 broken-play goals he gave up during the regular season and three of 11 so far in the playoffs originated on sharp-angle attacks from near or below the goal line. There was a tendency to get a little busy in these scrambles, which accounted for some of the five-hole goals because lateral pushes from the butterfly require a goalie to lift their knee off the ice, and at times he got caught outside his posts, exposing him to short-side bank shots or far-side wraparounds.

East-west and quick: Shots after passes and plays across the middle of the ice increase the chances of scoring on any goalie, and they accounted for 22 tracked goals on Oettinger during the regular season and five of 20 in the first round before just one against the Jets. Though Oettinger's numbers are better than the 22.1 percent average, it's worth noting he tends to set up wide of his posts on plays down the wing, which increases the distance he must travel to get across on lateral passes, making it important to get shots off quick and aim at the far side rather than shooting against the grain back into his late coverage. Even when he gets caught outside his posts, he's not out of the play, like Jets forward Mason Appleton discovered when he shot back into the middle of an open net in Game 7. That gave Oettinger, who slid just outside his left post on the first pass, a chance to make a momentum-changing reactive save. Oettinger also has a distinct move down into his save stance from a more upright stance when play is higher in the zone, lowering his hips and widening his base, which limits mobility for any goalie, so passing after he sets increases scoring odds.

Net drives depend on handedness: Oettinger nicely mixes his net-play coverage with a variety of post-integration techniques to give shooters different looks, but it often is related to handedness on a net drive below the face-off circle. If he squares up and overlaps his posts on a player on his forehand, he's got better coverage for a shot, but it takes more of his frame outside of the net and makes it harder to get across on low lateral plays. If he tucks inside his post using RVH on a player cutting on their backhand, he's in a better position for plays into the middle but sometimes there can be a little space short side over the shoulder or pad on an open shot. Nathan MacKinnon took advantage of this in Game 7 of the first round by driving on the backhand, then after Oettinger dropped into RVH, he pulled it to his forehand for a quick short-side goal in tight.

Active rebounds: Oettinger has given up only two rebound goals during the playoffs but there were 13 in the regular-season sample, including 10 in 18 games after the 4 Nations Face-Off. Shooters should keep in mind that second chances will bounce harder and travel further off Oettinger's Bauer pads, so being too close doesn't always help.