EDGE stats: Bennett’s case for Conn Smythe Trophy with Panthers

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the underlying metrics behind Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett’s case for the Conn Smythe Trophy.

—

Sam Bennett has been the best goal scorer of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and, after the Florida Panthers' dominant road win in Game 5, remains the leading Conn Smythe Trophy contender as most valuable player of the postseason.

Bennett, who will turn 29 years old on June 20 and can become an unrestricted free agent after this season, leads the NHL with a Panthers-record 15 goals in 22 playoff games, including five in as many games against the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final, to help them take a 3-2 lead in the best-of-7 championship series rematch.

Bennett extended his NHL record for road goals (13) in a single postseason, became the fifth player in Stanley Cup Playoffs history with a six-game road goal streak and is the fourth active player with 15 goals in a single postseason, joining Zach Hyman of the Oilers (16 in 2024), Alex Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals (15 in 2018) and Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins (15 in 2009). Bennett and teammate Brad Marchand (six goals in first five Cup Final games) became the first set of teammates in 52 years to each score at least five times in the same Cup Final (last: Yvan Cournoyer, Frank Mahovlich for Montreal Canadiens in 1973).

Bennett, who is the only player with at least one point in each game of the Cup Final, was acquired by the Panthers from the Calgary Flames in 2021 after being selected by his former team with the No. 4 pick in the 2014 NHL Draft. He has made the playoffs in each of his first five seasons with Florida and played a key role during three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances. Elevating his game the later the season goes, Bennett has career averages of 0.49 points per game in the regular season, 0.74 in the playoffs and 0.82 in the Cup Final (14 points in 17 games).

Since hits were first tracked in 2005-06, Bennett is the first player with double-digit goals and 100-plus hits in a single postseason (he ranks second in the NHL with 103 hits this postseason); the only player with more than 60 hits while scoring 15-plus goals in a single playoff year was Ovechkin en route to winning the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2018 (15 goals, 81 hits). His goal-scoring and physicality have helped him build a unique case for playoff MVP for the defending champions.

Here are three underlying numbers behind Bennett’s postseason heroics:

1. High-danger goals, shots on goal by location

While Bennett's first period goal in Game 5 was from the midrange region of the ice, his fourth such goal from that location of the postseason (tied for the most in the League), most of his damage has been done from high-danger areas where he is tied with Corey Perry of the Oilers for the NHL lead (eight high-danger goals each). The Panthers lead the NHL as a team in high-danger goals (50) during the 2025 playoffs, ahead of the Oilers, who rank second (44).

Bennett is also third in both high-danger shots on goal (24 in 22 games) and shots on goal overall (66) in the League during the playoffs; he trails only Edmonton teammates Connor McDavid (29 in 21 games) and Perry (27 in 21 games) in high-danger shots on goal and is behind only McDavid (78) and Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard (67) in shots on goal overall.

2. Speed bursts, skating distance

Bennett brings plenty of speed in addition to his scoring and physicality, making him the complete package so far this postseason. He ranks highly in 20-plus mph speed bursts (46; eighth in entire NHL) and total skating distance (69.42 miles; seventh in League); 12 of those 20-plus mph speed bursts have come in the Cup Final, one shy of forward Carter Verhaeghe (13) for the team lead. Among forwards, Bennett ranks third in even-strength skating distance (61.68 miles) during the playoffs behind McDavid (73.25 miles) and Leon Draisaitl (63.77 miles).

3. Goals off the rush, “Goals Above Projected”

NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal. The Actual Goal Rate (AGR) of all shots this season across the League is 5.1 percent. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts.

Bennett has seven inferenced shot attempts with a PGR of at least 12.0 percent in this series, tied with Draisaitl for the most among players from either team. Bennett has been opportunistic by forcing his shot to be saved by an Edmonton goalie on six, and scoring on three of those seven high-probability attempts:

• PGR: 29.28 percent: Power-play goal scored off offensive zone play (1st period of Game 2)
• PGR: 20.72 percent: Goal scored off the rush (2nd period of Game 1)
• PGR: 16.91 percent: Goal scored off the rush (2nd period of Game 3)

Three of Bennett’s five goals in the Cup Final, including the one in Game 5, came off the rush which is defined by NHL EDGE IQ as a goal that occurs within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line. Bennett and Marchand (four) have combined to score seven of Florida's eight goals off the rush on inferenced shot attempts in the series; Edmonton has only four rush goals, scored by four different players, in the Cup Final.

Among the 109 inferenced shot attempts by Bennett this postseason, his actual goal rate (10.09 percent) far exceeds his PGR (6.13 percent), given the goalie's positioning, puck movement and traffic at the time of release.

In terms of “Projected Goals,” or the sum of projected goal rate across all of a player’s attempts (assessment of quantity and quality; average PGR times inferenced shot attempts), Bennett was projected to score 6.68 times (.0613 times 109 inferenced shot attempts) but has exceeded that projection with 11 goals on those inferenced shot attempts. Bennett’s mark of 4.32 “Goals Above Projected” (GAP) this postseason leads the NHL among skaters who are in the 50th percentile and above of shot attempts.

---

More EDGE stats on Bennett