NHL EDGE stats: Bouchard’s early case for Norris Trophy

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at three underlying metrics storylines behind Evan Bouchard’s early case for the Norris Trophy.

1. Possession dominance

Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard has eight points (four goals, four assists) in his first two games of the season, becoming the first player at his position with that many points through his team’s first two games of a season in NHL history. Bouchard, who led NHL defensemen in points last season (95), boasts elite advanced stats in multiple categories, and his continued possession prowess is helping him build an early case for the Norris Trophy.

Bouchard, who had five points and a hat trick in the season opener against the Vancouver Canucks on Sept. 29, followed up that performance with three points (one goal, two assists) in the rematch against Vancouver on Oct. 1. Prior to Bouchard’s outburst, the last defenseman with four goals through his team’s first two games was Larry Sacharuk for the St. Louis Blues in 1974-75. The Oilers, with Bouchard and Connor McDavid each having five-point games so far, have also become second team in NHL history to have at least one player with five or more points in each of the team’s first two games of a season (other: Phil Esposito, Ken Hodge for Boston Bruins in 1973-74).

Bouchard ranks in the 97th percentile in offensive zone time percentage early on this season (51.7); last season, he was tied for third among defensemen in that category (47.6; behind Shayne Gostisbehere’s 49.6, Adam Fox’s 48.0) and was also tied for third at his position in power-play offensive zone time percentage (63.5). So far this season, Bouchard also leads NHL defensemen in 5-on-5 shot attempts differential (plus-29) and is tied with forward teammate Leon Draisaitl for the best mark in that category among all skaters. It’s also significant that Bouchard is tied with Draisaitl for the most shot attempts (18) in the entire NHL so far.

2. Shot speed

Last season, Bouchard ranked second in the entire NHL in 90-plus mph shot attempts (51) behind fellow defenseman Darren Raddysh (97 for Tampa Bay Lightning; now with Toronto Maple Leafs). Bouchard was also a standout among defensemen in average shot speed (74.27 mph; 95th percentile) and hardest shot (98.08 mph; 90th percentile).

So far this season, Bouchard has yet to hit the 90-mph mark but still ranks in the 91st percentile at his position in hardest shot (89.01). Bouchard is also tied with Brandon Montour of the Seattle Kraken and Mikhail Sergachev of the Utah Mammoth for the NHL lead in 80-90 mph shot attempts so far this season (four each). Bouchard’s hardest shot on a goal so far this season was 75.74 mph against the Canucks in the first period of the season opener. Over the past three seasons combined (since 2023-24), Bouchard ranks third among defensemen in power-play goals (18 in span; behind Cale Makar’s 23, Jakob Chychrun’s 20) -- thanks largely to his shot speed.

3. Perimeter offense

Bouchard’s hardest shot on a goal this season came from long range, and he has carried over his success from distance so far this season. He’s the only player in the NHL so far to score multiple long-range goals (two) and leads the entire League in long-range shots on goal (seven). Last season, Bouchard ranked fourth in the entire NHL in long-range shots on goal (108), and was also among the defenseman leaders in mid-range goals (12; tied for third) and mid-range shots on goal (87; second behind Zach Werenski’s 91). 

In terms of shot types, two of Bouchard’s four goals this season have been snapshot goals. Last season, Bouchard was the only NHL defenseman with at least eight snapshot goals and at least eight slapshot goals. And, since 2023-24, Bouchard leads NHL defensemen in slapshot goals (26; six more than second-place Raddysh, Roman Josi).

Considering Bouchard’s well-versed advanced metrics and high points ceiling, he could contend with the other prime Norris candidates like Makar (won award twice), Quinn Hughes (once) and Werenski (once; reigning winner), especially if he outscores them by a decent margin. Bouchard, who finished fourth in Norris voting last season, has never been a finalist for the award but continues to benefit from exposure to regular 100-point scorers in McDavid (nine 100-point seasons in career; third most in NHL history behind Wayne Gretzky’s 15, Mario Lemieux’s 10) and Draisaitl (six; tied for seventh-most 100-point seasons in history).

For context, the last Oilers defenseman to win the Norris was Paul Coffey (1985-86), and Erik Karlsson won the Norris with the San Jose Sharks in 2022-23. Karlsson (101 points in 2022-23) is the only defenseman in recent history to eclipse 100 points since Brian Leetch had 102 points in 1991-92).

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