NHL EDGE stats: McKenna’s early role with Maple Leafs

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at three underlying metrics storylines surrounding rookie Gavin McKenna’s early role with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

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1. Mid-range offense

Toronto Maple Leafs rookie forward Gavin McKenna, the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, scored his first NHL goal against the Nashville Predators on Oct. 6 and had his best game yet in terms of surface-level and advanced metrics. McKenna, who was held without a point over his first three NHL games, responded with a multipoint game, including a primary assist on John Tavares’ goal in the second period. The 18-year-old’s breakthrough performance sparked a comeback for Toronto, which trailed 2-0 in the game but rallied to win 5-4 in overtime.

McKenna’s goal came on a mid-range shot on goal, assisted by Toronto captain Auston Matthews, in the second period to draw the Maple Leafs within one goal (4-3 Nashville). The team’s core forwards in Matthews (four points), William Nylander (three points), McKenna (two) and Tavares (one goal) each had a hand in the victory.

NHL EDGE IQ insights: McKenna’s first career goal came on a shot that had a Projected Goal Rate (PGR) of 2.61 percent, making it a low-probability attempt. He was 25.28 feet from the goal line at the time of the release.

McKenna became the youngest Maple Leafs player (18 years, 290 days) to score his first career NHL goal since Luke Richardson on Oct. 16, 1987 (18 years, 204 days). It was McKenna’s second mid-range shot on goal of the season, which ranks in the 79th percentile among forwards. McKenna had a career-high six shot attempts in the game against Nashville after combining for five over his first three games.

2. Skating speed

In terms of 18-20 mph speed bursts (42), he ranks in the 99th percentile among forwards, leads the Maple Leafs and ranks sixth in the entire NHL in that category. Although McKenna had a quiet start to his rookie season prior to Tuesday’s outburst, he has had at least one 20-plus mph speed burst in each of his first four NHL games and is tied for fourth among NHL rookies in that category (eight; Amadeus Lombardi has 11, Owen Michaels, Brad Lambert have nine each).

McKenna’s max skating speed (21.64 mph) ranks in the 69th percentile among forwards (NHL average at position: 21.21). It’s also noteworthy that McKenna had the hardest shot of his NHL career (75.66 mph; saved) against the Predators on Tuesday, and it came on his first and only shot attempt off the rush (within five seconds of puck crossing offensive blue line) this season. As McKenna’s comfort level grows in his ongoing transition to the NHL, he’s likely to showcase his max speed more often over the course of his rookie season.

3. Offensive zone start percentage

New Maple Leafs coach Jim Hiller is entrusting McKenna with a prominent offensive role early on in his career; McKenna ranks in the 93rd percentile in offensive zone starts percentage at 5-on-5 (53.1). Per NHL EDGE IQ, McKenna’s first career goal came on an offensive zone play (at least five seconds after puck crosses offensive blue line). Of McKenna’s 10 inferenced shot attempts this season, nine have come on offensive zone plays; inferenced shot attempts exclude those taken from outside of 60 feet, beyond the goal line, and empty-net situations.

McKenna has also seen plenty of power-play time early on in the season; he ranks fourth among rookie forwards in average power-play ice time (2:16 per game). McKenna has had exposure to Nylander, Tavares and Matthews in various situations; he has played mostly on a line with Nylander and Tavares at 5-on-5 this season, but his first goal was assisted by Matthews and Jack Roslovic.

McKenna also showed significant puck-possession improvement in his fourth career game; he had a plus-6 shot attempts differential at 5-on-5 after being minus-18 in that category over his previous three games combined. McKenna’s ongoing adjustments, both in terms of individual scoring and advanced metrics, would keep him as one of the front-runners for the Calder Trophy.