NHL EDGE stats: Rangers’ outlook with Shesterkin injured

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE  puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at three advanced stats storylines surrounding the New York Rangers after the season-ending injury to goalie Igor Shesterkin.

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1. Garand’s high-danger save percentage

Igor Shesterkin sustained a season-ending lower-body injury Oct. 9, meaning the New York Rangers and coach Mike Sullivan will face an uphill battle in the elite goalie’s absence. Shesterkin, a past Vezina Trophy winner (2022), is tied with Andrei Vasilevskiy for the best save percentage (.917 each) among active NHL goalies. The Rangers quickly turned to backup Dylan Garand, who’s 2-1-0 with a .932 save percentage (55 saves on 59 shots faced) in three games since relieving Shesterkin during the game he was injured.

Among goalies to play at least three games, Garand is tied with Jacob Markstrom for second in the NHL in high-danger save percentage (.958 each) behind Jake Oettinger (.960 in five games). Garand has a perfect power-play save percentage (when opponents are on power play), and the Rangers are tied for fourth in the NHL in penalty kill percentage (91.7 through eight games) this season. New York, as a team, has the fourth-best 5-on-5 save percentage (.940) this season, which includes Shesterkin’s outstanding start to the season prior to injury (3-1-0, .927 save percentage).

But Garand has still been one of the surprise standouts across the League this season; he has had greater than a .900 save percentage in all three of his starts and ranks third in the League in 5-on-5 save percentage (.953; minimum three games played). Garand has also been reliable when facing perimeter shots (stopped 38 of 40 perimeter shots faced); he has a mid-range save percentage (.909) above the NHL average (.879) and has yet to allow a long-range goal (18 saves on 18 long-range shots faced).

2. Lafrenière’s breakout, other young impact forwards

Although New York has two impact veteran forwards in Mika Zibanejad and captain J.T. Miller, they have the third-youngest roster in the NHL this season and are getting significant contributions from young forwards Alexis Lafrenière, Pavel Dorofeyev, Gabe Perreault, Will Cuylle and Tye Kartye. Lafrenière, the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, is having a breakout start to the season with 10 points (seven goals, three assists) over his first eight games, including a career-best four-game goal streak.

Lafrenière is the only player in the entire NHL with at least three high-danger goals and three mid-range goals. Playing mostly on the top line with Zibanejad and Perreault and also on the first power play, Lafrenière ranks in the 95th percentile or higher among forwards in the following advanced stats categories:

• Offensive zone time percentage at all strengths: 48.3 (95th percentile)
• Power-play offensive zone time percentage: 69.1 (99th percentile; seventh in entire NHL)
• High-danger goals: 3 (98th percentile; tied for ninth in entire NHL)
• High-danger shots on goal: 8 (94th percentile)
• Mid-range goals: 3 (99th percentile; tied for third in entire NHL)
• Mid-range shots on goal: 7 (93rd percentile)
• Total skating distance: 24.43 miles (98th percentile)

NHL EDGE IQ insights: Lafrenière is tied for third in the entire NHL in high-danger scoring chances (attempts with “Projected Goal Rate (PGR)” greater than 12.0 percent) and leads the League with six high-danger scoring chances off the rush (within five seconds of crossing offensive blue line).

The Rangers’ other 25-and-younger forwards are also making a significant EDGE stats impact, with Lafreniere and Perreault taking on bigger roles after Artemi Panarin was traded to the Los Angeles Kings prior to the 2026 NHL Trade Deadline and Vincent Trocheck was traded to the Utah Mammoth in the offseason. Dorofeyev ranks in the 96th percentile among forwards in both high-danger shots on goal and mid-range shots on goal (nine each) and is in the 91st percentile at the position in offensive zone time percentage (47.2).

Perreault ranks in the 84th percentile or higher among forwards in max skating speed (22.38 mph), high-danger shots on goal (six), mid-range shots on goal (five) and offensive zone start percentage (43.6). Cuylle, the only player with at least 30 hits (37) and five points (six) this season, is tied for third in the entire NHL in high-danger shots on goal (12). Kartye (claimed off waivers Feb. 27, 2026) ranks highly among forwards in high-danger shots on goal (seven; 90th percentile) and average shot speed (63.42 mph; 88th percentile).

3. Defensive improvement

New York, led by its strong first pair of Adam Fox and Vladislav Gavrikov, has shown significant improvement this season in goals against per game (1.75; second best behind Dallas Stars’ 1.67) considering it ranked 15th in that category last season (3.04; even with Shesterkin playing 51 games). The Rangers are also tied with the Edmonton Oilers in first-period goal differential (plus-7), benefiting from their new-look second defense pair with offseason additions Sean Durzi and Marcus Pettersson; Pettersson and Durzi have been on the ice together for only one 5-on-5 goal allowed over the first eight games of the season.

NHL EDGE IQ insight: The Rangers have the lowest PGR Against (4.74 percent) this season, meaning they are allowing the lowest-quality scoring chances compared to other teams.

But while the Rangers, as a team, rank eighth in offensive zone time percentage (42.3 this season; percentage of time puck spends in offensive zone while game clock is running), they have struggled in a key 5-on-5 possession metric. Not having Shesterkin, who’s universally viewed as the team’s most valuable player, for the rest of this 84-game season makes it imperative that the Rangers improve their 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (46.1; 26th out of 32 teams). New York, which has missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs in consecutive seasons, would also benefit from the return of injured goalie Joonas Korpisalo in its effort to stay in contention for the third postseason spot in the Metropolitan Division.