EDGE stats from Hurricanes-Panthers Eastern Conference Final after Game 4

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we provide three advanced stats insights on the Eastern Conference Final series between the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers.

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The Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Florida Panthers 3-0 in Game 4 to stave off elimination in the Eastern Conference Final. Goalie Frederik Andersen, who didn't play in Game 3 after allowing nine goals on 36 shots faced in the first two games of this series, made 20 saves for his fifth career playoff shutout and second this postseason (also Game 3 of the second round against the Washington Capitals).

The Hurricanes grabbed their first lead of the series when rookie Logan Stankoven took a neutral zone pass from fellow rookie Alexander Nikishin, skated into the offensive zone and scored over the right shoulder of Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. Carolina would add a pair of empty net goals from Sebastian Aho and Jordan Staal to complete the shutout and their first win in a Conference Final game since their Stanley Cup season in 2006, ending a 15-game losing streak in the round.

The series now shifts back to Carolina, who still trails 3-1 in the series, for Game 5 on Wednesday. That might not be bad news for Florida considering they have won their past four road playoff games by a combined score of 22-4.

Here are three key advanced stats insights from the Hurricanes-Panthers series so far:

1. Andersen's saves by location

Facing elimination and in danger of being swept out of the Eastern Conference Final in its fourth straight appearance, Carolina turned back to starter Frederik Andersen and he delivered. The 35-year-old, who has never reached the Stanley Cup Final in 12 NHL seasons, only needed to make two high-danger saves but stopped them both; he also stopped all six midrange shots faced and nine long-range shots faced.

Entering Game 4, the Panthers held a significant edge in high-danger shots on goal (27, including 16 in Game 3) and high-danger goals (12) over the Hurricanes (15 high-danger SOG, four high-danger goals) through the first three games of the series. Florida's two high-danger SOG (one by Aleksander Barkov and one by Sam Bennett, both in the first period) in Game 4 were their second fewest in a single game this postseason; the Panthers were held to one high-danger SOG in Game 2 of first round against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Panthers forwards Matthew Tkachuk (four), Carter Verhaeghe (three), Brad Marchand, Eetu Luostarinen and Anton Lundell (two each) were all held without a high-danger SOG in Game 4 after having multiple such shots through Game 3.

Andersen, who led all goalies this postseason in high-danger save percentage entering the Conference Finals (.902), allowed six high-danger goals on 10 high-danger shots faced in the first two games of this series. The Hurricanes will need more performances like this one by Andersen if they want to mount a comeback against the Panthers.

It’s worth noting Florida forward Sam Reinhart, its leading goal scorer from the regular season (39), did not play either Game 3 or 4 with a lower-body injury. Reinhart is another Panthers player with multiple high-danger goals during the playoffs (two).

2. Stankoven scores off the rush

Stankoven, acquired from the Dallas Stars on Trade Deadline Day in a deal that sent Mikko Rantanen back in return, snapped a scoreless tie at 10:45 of the second period. It was his second goal in as many games and fifth of the postseason to become just the third rookie in franchise history to reach that mark in a single playoff year, joining Erik Cole in 2002 (six) and Warren Foegele in 2019 (five). Stankoven's goal came on his only midrange SOG of the game and was the first midrange shot to get past Bobrovsky in this series. Florida's goalie had stopped all 19 midrange shots faced prior to Game 4.

NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal at the point of puck release. The actual goal rate (AGR) of all shots this season across the League is 5.1 percent. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt. The goal by Stankoven in Game 4 had a PGR of 7.28 percent making it an above-average attempt.

The goal was also Carolina's second off the rush in this series (other was scored by Sebastian Aho in Game 1), defined as any interenced shot attempt that comes within five seconds of crossing the offensive blue line. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts. Florida has five goals off the rush through the first four games of the series.

3. Carolina's strong defensive structure

The Hurricanes shut down a high-powered Florida offense that entered the game leading the NHL with 4.07 goals per game and had scored at least five goals in each of its past four games. While Andersen deserves some of the credit, so to does Carolina's defense led by Jaccob Slavin who had a team-high four blocked shots across his 28 minutes of ice time. Slavin skated 1.32 miles in the first period in Game 4, his most in a single period this postseason.

Per NHL EDGE IQ, the highest PGR on any of the 43 inferenced shot attempts by the Panthers in Game 4, was 11.31 percent and came on Carter Verhaeghe's power play chance in the third period which missed the net. That means Florida did not record a single high-probability attempt in the entire game.

Carolina continues to spend more time in the offensive zone than Florida in the series. The Hurricanes offensive zone time percentage in Game 4 was 45.3 (Florida's was 38.8), which is their highest mark since Game 1 (46.7) and the fourth straight game they had the advantage over Florida in that category.

The Hurricanes’ defensive effort kept their season alive for the time being and perhaps provided a blueprint for how they can defeat the Panthers again in Game 5.

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EDGE stats team comparison: CAR vs. FLA

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