EDGE stats behind Marchand’s clutch goal-scoring for Panthers

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the underlying metrics behind Florida Panthers forward Brad Marchand’s clutch goal-scoring in the Stanley Cup Final.

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The Florida Panthers acquired veteran forward Brad Marchand for his Stanley Cup Playoff experience during their title defense, and the move has paid dividends all postseason long, especially in their championship series rematch against the Edmonton Oilers.

Marchand, who was acquired by the Panthers from the Boston Bruins prior to the NHL Trade Deadline, has scored six goals in five games during the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, including the game-winning goal in both of their road wins (Game 2 & 5) to put Florida in a position to win their second straght championship on home ice.

Marchand's six goals are the most by any player in the championship series since Oilers forward Esa Tikkanen scored six goals in the 1988 Stanley Cup Final. The 37-year-old, who won a championship as a rookie with the Bruins in 2011 and is looking for another title in his 13th career trip to the postseason, is tied for third in the entire NHL with 10 goals this postseason. Marchand scored five goals in that 2011 Stanley Cup Final against the Vancouver Canucks and is now the first player in NHL history to score five-plus goals in a single Cup Final with two different teams.

Marchand has at least one point in all seven of Florida's games following a loss this postseason, including seven goals, four assists, three game-winning goals and two overtime goals. Of Marchand's 10 playoff goals, seven have given the Panthers a lead which is second in the League behind only Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl (eight go-ahead goals).

Playing in his fourth career Stanley Cup Final (2011, 2013, 2019, 2025), Marchand became the second player in the NHL's expansion era (since 1967-68) to score at least five goals in multiple Cup Final series, joining Mario Lemieux (1991 & 1992 with the Pittsburgh Penguins). He is also the first NHL player in more than 100 years to score five-plus goals on the road in a single Cup Final and just the third to do it all-time, joining Jack Darragh of the Ottawa Senators (five in 1921) and Newsy Lalonde of the Montreal Canadiens (six in 1919).

Marchand ranks fourth among active players in career playoff goals (66) behind only Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin (77) and Pittsburgh Penguins teammates Sidney Crosby (71) and Evgeni Malkin (67). Here are three underlying numbers behind Marchand’s clutch goal-scoring prowess which has put the Panthers three wins from repeating as Cup champions:

1. High-danger goals, shots by location

Marchand leads the Panthers with nine high-danger shots on goal through the first five games of the Stanley Cup Final (no other Florida player has more than six high-danger shots on goal) and trails only Oilers forward Corey Perry (12) for the most in the series. Marchand leads all skaters in the series with five high-danger goals in five games after he had just two such goals in his first 17 games this postseason.

Marchand is second on Florida in high-danger goals (seven) this postseason behind Sam Bennett (eight) and ranks tied for third in the NHL in that category. The Panthers lead all playoff teams in high-danger goals (50; including 11 in Stanley Cup Final) and lead teams that advanced past the first round in high-danger shooting percentage (30.3).

Marchand also ranks among the NHL leaders in midrange shots on goal this postseason (15; tied for sixth), further illustrating his preference to shoot from within the face-off dots, where most goals across the League have been scored this postseason.

2. Skating distance at all strengths

Marchand ranks eighth among forwards in total skating distance this postseason (62.30 miles) thanks to his versatility in playing at all strengths and quickly gaining the trust of coach Paul Maurice after making his Panthers debut near the end of the regular season. Marchand also ranks highly among forwards this postseason in skating distance at even strength (51.86 miles; seventh at position), on the power play (5.94 miles; 89th percentile) and penalty kill (4.50 miles; 90th percentile).

Marchand has been on the ice for 25 goals scored by the Panthers and only eight allowed at even strength this postseason; that plus-17 on-ice even-strength goal differential ranks tied for first among all NHL skaters with his frequent linemate Anton Lundell this postseason. He has 16 points at 5-on-5 this postseason, tied with frequent linemates Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen for Florida’s lead and tied for second in the entire NHL behind only McDavid (18) during the 2025 postseason.

3. Goals off the rush, “Projected Goal Rate”

NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal. The Actual Goal Rate (AGR) of all shots this season across the League is 5.1 percent. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts.

Marchand has not generated a high-probability inferenced shot attempt since Game 2 of the Cup Final (he had five in the first two games of this series), but has managed to score three more goals since:

• First period of Game 3 (19:04 remaining): scored goal on offensive zone play (PGR: 4.26 percent)
• First period of Game 5 (10:48 remaining): scored goal off the rush (PGR: 3.07 percent)
• Third period of Game 5 (14:48 remaining): scored goal off the rush (PGR: 11.56 percent)

Marchand leads all skaters in the Cup Finals in inferenced shot attempts (15) and goals (four; all since Game 2) off the rush, defined by NHL EDGE IQ as ones that occur within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line. Marchand had only one rush goal in 18 games this postseason prior to Game 2 but scored both of his regular-season goals with the Panthers (in 10 games) off the rush. While Edmonton’s speed might be considered a major advantage in creating scoring opportunities off the rush, it is Florida who has the advantage in goals scored off the rush (8 to 4).

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More EDGE stats on Marchand