Mailbag: Olympic roster surprises, midseason trophy favorites

NHL.com's weekly Over the Boards mailbag is in full swing this season. Every week, senior writer Dan Rosen sifts through your questions sent to him on X and answers them.

To participate in future mailbags, send your questions to @drosennhl on X and use #OvertheBoards.

Good or bad, what surprises you about the USA, Canada and other announced Olympic rosters? -- @MrEd315

I wasn't necessarily surprised Team USA didn't select Adam Fox and at least one of Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield for its roster at the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026, but I was expecting Fox and either Robertson or Caufield to make the team. However, Fox did not have the best showing at the 4 Nations Face-Off, and the fact that he missed 14 games in December didn't help him either. Robertson and Caufield were both left off the 4 Nations roster, and Team USA general manager Bill Guerin was clear all along that he liked the chemistry and makeup of that team, so maybe that was a signal. Guerin also placed value on the players who helped the U.S. win the 2025 IIHF World Championship. Clayton Keller and Tage Thompson, the two forwards on the Olympic roster who didn't make the 4 Nations team, both did that. I expected it would carry some weight, but if Team USA struggles to score and doesn't come home with gold, the second-guessing will continue incessantly for a long time.

Team Canada's biggest surprise was leaving off Sam Bennett after a season when he helped Canada win the 4 Nations and then won the Conn Smythe Trophy voted as the most valuable player of the Stanley Cup Playoffs while helping the Florida Panthers win the Stanley Cup for a second straight season. He hasn't had the best first half, but I'm not alone in thinking that what he has done in the biggest games would carry enough weight to keep him on Canada's roster.

I was surprised that Team Sweden did not have a place for Edmonton Oilers defenseman Mattias Ekholm. Teams are going to have to play mean to win this tournament. It's going to be won along the walls, in tight spaces, in front of the net. Those are the areas where Ekholm thrives. If not him, Simon Edvinsson of the Detroit Red Wings would have given Sweden a big, mobile, young defenseman who is having a strong season in the NHL.

At this point in the season, who in your opinion are the trophy winners: Vezina, Hart, Norris, Calder, Jack Adams, Selke? -- @TrishTheMiddle

Great time to ask because we are running our midseason trophy trackers this week. A panel of 16 NHL.com writers voted on who we think the leading candidates are for the Jack Adams Award given to the top coach in the NHL, the Calder Trophy for the League's best rookie, the Vezina Trophy for the top goalie, the Norris Trophy for the best defenseman and the Hart Trophy for the most valuable player to his team. These are not official, and we do not have a vote for the final award, but it's a way of keeping track of the leading contenders.

Colorado Avalanche coach Jared Bednar is the leading candidate for the Jack Adams Award. I have Bednar third with John Hynes from the Minnesota Wild as my top candidate and Jon Cooper from the Tampa Bay Lightning at No. 2. It's impossible to argue against Bedar and the job he's doing this season, but Hynes has had to do more with less. The Wild also overcame a tough start. They were 3-6-3 in their first 12 games but rediscovered their game and have been rolling since. Cooper has had to deal with players going in and out of the Lightning lineup and yet he still has the team competing for first place in the Atlantic Division.

Matthew Schaefer is the favorite for the Calder Trophy. The New York Islanders rookie is also my favorite. He's running away with it and could be in line to also get Norris Trophy votes despite being an 18-year-old defenseman. His speed, ability to transport the puck and confidence have transformed the Islanders into a team that moves well and is dangerous offensively. I have Beckett Sennecke of the Anaheim Ducks second and Ivan Demidov of the Montreal Canadiens third.

Cale Makar (Avalanche) is the Norris Trophy favorite among the 16 NHL.com writers. He's my No. 1 choice. It's not as much of a runaway as it seems because Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets deserves votes, but Makar leads his position in scoring and plays more than 25 minutes per game against the toughest matchups and is on the best team in the League, so maybe it is a runaway after all. I have Werenski second and Moritz Seider of the Red Wings third.

The Vezina Trophy vote is the hardest. I have Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers as my No. 1. This vote took place before he sustained a lower-body injury Monday. Shesterkin was placed on injured reserve on Tuesday and will continue to be evaluated. But he got the edge ahead of the Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars because Shesterkin has been elite with a heavier workload and less room for error on a team that is 31st in the League in offense, scoring 2.59 goals per game and has been shutout eight times. But Shesterkin, who leads the NHL with 34 games played, is the reason the Rangers are in games with his 2.45 goals-against average and .913 save percentage. Imagine if his GAA was 2.60 or higher. The Rangers are in trouble if Shesterkin has to miss an extended amount of time.

My Hart Trophy vote goes to Nathan MacKinnon of the Avalanche, getting the nod ahead of Oilers captain Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks. I'm able to separate Makar and MacKinnon. Makar is the best defenseman; MacKinnon has been the most valuable player on the best team in the League. He drives Colorado's offense. He is the alpha, and the rest follow him. He leads the NHL with 35 goals and a plus-48 rating, and is second with 74 points while averaging 21:56 of ice time per game. McDavid has led the Oilers' surge back up the standings. Celebrini is clearly the reason why the Sharks are in the playoff picture, but MacKinnon drives the best team in the League, which is why I think he's the MVP so far.

Any chance that the Rangers would entertain the idea of trading Adam Fox? -- @NYR_RL

There's always a chance, but why? What could the Rangers get in return that would make it worth trading the 27-year-old Norris Trophy-winning defenseman who is signed through the 2028-29 season making $9.5 million annually?

Fox is their second-most indispensable player after Shesterkin. And they’re going to learn what life is like without them now that each is out with a lower-body injury.

Fox was placed on long-term injured reserve Tuesday. He has to miss at least 10 games and 24 days, making him ineligible to return until Jan. 31. I mentioned above about Shesterkin going on injured reserve.

But to accentuate Fox’s value, look at New York's splits with and without him this season.

With Fox, the Rangers are 14-13-3 and scoring 2.70 goals per game with a power play that has a 26.0-percent success rate, including 5-for-8 in the three games since he returned from an upper-body injury.

In 14 games without Fox in December, the Rangers were 6-5-3, scored 2.36 goals per game and had a 15.4-percent success rate on the power play.

The record isn't much different, but that's largely because of the team around Fox and Shesterkin. Fox himself is a game-changer, a top NHL defenseman in his prime and signed to a contract that is aging well. There is no reason to trade him. New York should be building its whole team around Fox and Shesterkin. They are franchise players. Losing them at the same time is a huge blow.

Who do you think should bid for the next World Juniors the next time the United States hosts? San Jose might be the perfect host as the San Jose Sharks will be celebrating 40 years in 2031. -- @StacyAlbano

The United States is scheduled to host the 2031 IIHF World Junior Championship. The Sharks will do a lot to celebrate their 40th, but it doesn't involve the World Juniors. San Jose could bid on it and host it, but the Sharks' 40th is not a driving point for it.

The three NHL markets that intrigue me as potential hosts are Boston, Florida/Tampa Bay and Utah.

Boston is a natural fit as a terrific hockey city with a vibrant youth hockey population. It's an easy sell. The United States could play games at TD Garden and fill it up, but the IIHF could use Boston University's Agganis Arena, Boston College's Conte Forum and Northeastern's new state-of-the-art on-campus arena as other venues for games. It's an easy trip for Canadians too. Boston was the host city for the 1996 World Juniors.

Florida/Tampa Bay is intriguing because of the continued high-level of growth of hockey in the state. Obviously, Amerant Bank Arena is the main venue in South Florida with Baptist Health Ice Center, the Panthers' practice facility, a two-rink facility and an option for practices. The IIHF could split the tournament between South Florida and Tampa to maximize interest across the state, playing games there as well at Benchmark International Arena, the Lightning's home, and potentially using the Brandon Ice Sports Forum as a practice rink. Fans from participating European countries also might be inclined to travel to Florida for some sunshine and hockey around the holiday season. Many Canadians already live there too.

Utah is intriguing with Salt Lake City set to host the 2034 Winter Olympics. Playing the World Juniors at Delta Center and using the Utah Mammoth's practice rink in nearby Sandy, Utah, would be a preview of what's to come in 2034. Utah is a thriving hockey market that should be booming even more five years from now.

If Alex Ovechkin signs an extension is it possible that the Capitals would be a candidate for another outdoor game? -- @GLaSnoST9

It would have to be for multiple years because it is unlikely the Capitals will be playing in an outdoor game next season. Regardless, they have been a popular team for outdoor games and could be in another one in the coming years. The caveat to hosting is they already used Nationals Park, the home stadium for Major League Baseball's Washington Nationals, for the 2015 Winter Classic, and the new stadium for the NFL's Washington Commanders on the site of the old RFK Stadium in D.C. is supposed to be indoors with a translucent roof. Though it may give the feel of being outdoors, it wouldn't be an outdoor game. Nationals Park could be an option for another outdoor game, or what about a pop-up rink inside the National Mall? It's a talking point, at least.