NHL EDGE stats: Tortorella can spark Golden Knights

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify some key advanced metrics surrounding the Vegas Golden Knights at the time of their coaching change March 29.

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The Vegas Golden Knights have made a late-season coaching change by hiring John Tortorella to replace Bruce Cassidy on Sunday, and some of their advanced metrics suggest they could bounce back in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tortorella, a two-time Jack Adams Award winner as the NHL’s coach of the year, ranks ninth all-time in coaching wins (770) at the time of Vegas’ coaching change and won the Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2004. The Golden Knights, who have made the playoffs in seven of their eight seasons, won the Stanley Cup in 2023 and are close to clinching a spot this year with eight games remaining at the time of the coaching change.

Tortorella has led his teams to 12 playoff appearances in 23 seasons, including when he led the Columbus Blue Jackets to a shocking upset of the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Lightning in the 2019 postseason. The 67-year-old coach now takes over a star-studded roster, led by elite forwards Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner and Mark Stone; at the time of the coaching change, the Golden Knights were the only NHL team with six 50-point scorers, with two 70-point scorers in Eichel (78) and Marner (71), followed by Stone (64), Pavel Dorofeyev (60), Tomas Hertl (54) and Ivan Barbashev (52).

Vegas ranks in the top 10 in power-play percentage (24.5; tied for fourth), penalty kill percentage (81.8; sixth), shots on goal per game (28.6; 10th) and shots on goal allowed per game (24.3; tied for second fewest) this season at the time of its coaching change but was tied for the second-worst team save percentage (.874; ahead of only Vancouver Canucks’ .873).

Here are three underlying metrics storylines that suggest the Golden Knights could bounce back after their coaching change:

1. Save percentage metrics

Prior to the Golden Knights’ coaching change, they had the worst 5-on-5 save percentage (88.4) in the NHL this season. Vegas’ goalie rotation leads with Adin Hill, who was the Stanley Cup-winning starter in 2023, playing in 16 of the Golden Knights’ 22 postseason games and going 11-4 with a .932 save percentage (led entire playoffs) and two shutouts.

Hill has missed significant time because of injury this season; since returning Jan. 15, Hill was 8-9-3 with an .861 save percentage and one shutout prior to the coaching change. The Golden Knights have also leaned on backup Akira Schmid (16 wins, two shutouts in 34 games prior to coaching change). Goalie Carter Hart signed with Vegas on Oct. 24 and made his debut Dec. 2 but hasn’t played since Jan. 8 because of a lower-body injury.

During the 2023 postseason, Hill led the playoffs in high-danger save percentage (.893; minimum 10 games) and also ranked fourth in 5-on-5 save percentage (.941). This season, all three of Vegas’ goalies rank below the NHL average in high-danger save percentage. Tortorella provides hope considering he guided workhorse goalie Nikolai Khabibulin (16-7, .933 save percentage, five shutouts during 2004 postseason) to the Stanley Cup with the Lightning and also led elite starter Sergei Bobrovsky and the Blue Jackets to their upset of Tampa Bay in 2019.

2. High-danger offense

The Golden Knights, despite their underwhelming play of late, ranked among the top five in both high-danger shots on goal (653; tied for second) and high-danger goals (130; fourth) prior to the coaching change. They also rank in the top 10 of the League in both offensive zone time percentage (41.9; sixth) and 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (51.9; eighth), an indicator of a team’s status as a Stanley Cup contender.

Hertl ranks third in the entire NHL in high-danger shots on goal (109) behind Zach Hyman (111) and Connor McDavid (110). Defenseman Rasmus Andersson, whom Vegas acquired from the Calgary Flames on Jan. 18, has 10 points (four goals, six assists) in 25 games since the trade but brings an elite EDGE stats profile. The 29-year-old ranks among the top five defensemen in both high-danger shots on goal (18; fourth) and high-danger goals (five; tied for second) and also ranks in the 97th percentile at the position in hardest shot (100.26 mph).

Vegas is one of two teams with at least six 20-goal scorers this season (other: Utah Mammoth), led by Dorofeyev’s 34 goals (one away from tying career high with Golden Knights last season). Dorofeyev has robust advanced shot metrics (percentile rankings among forwards listed below):

• Hardest shot: 93.33 mph (93rd percentile)
• High-danger shots on goal: 71 (95th percentile)
• High-danger goals: 14 (90th percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 70 (94th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 10 (93rd percentile)
• Long-range shots on goal: 22 (94th percentile)

3. Projected Goal Rate

NHL EDGE IQ uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of an inferenced shot attempt becoming a goal based on the goalie's positioning, puck movement and traffic at the time of release. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts.

At the time of the coaching change, Vegas ranked third in both average PGR for (6.14 percent) and average PGR against (5.24 percent), meaning they are both generating quality scoring chances in the offensive zone and limiting their opponents from generating quality scoring chances in the defensive zone.

With the top two teams in the NHL (Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars) being in the Central Division, the Golden Knights have a more favorable path to come out of the Pacific Division side of the Western Conference playoff picture. With Tortorella likely to improve Vegas’ back end with his trademark defensive structure and shot-blocking mindset, Vegas has a high ceiling entering the postseason and has re-opened its Stanley Cup window with this surprising hire.