Mailbag: Avalanche playoff chances, Flyers' coaching future
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
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Are you concerned about the Colorado Avalanche? They might be on a similar track to the Tampa Bay Lightning when they got swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets based on how they're playing lately. -- @TMessall
It's a reasonable concern and one I thought of before I read your question. But the Avalanche's recent slump -- they had lost four straight games before a 5-3 win against the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday -- is not the same as what the Lightning went through in the final weeks of the regular season three years ago before they were swept by the Blue Jackets in the best-of-7 Eastern Conference First Round. That was a historic season on a League-wide level for the Lightning. They ran away with the Presidents' Trophy as the top team in the NHL standings with 128 points, 21 more than the next-best teams (Boston Bruins and Calgary Flames, 107). The Avalanche were neck and neck with the Florida Panthers for the Presidents' Trophy until their slump. Tampa Bay tied the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings for the NHL record with 62 wins. At best Colorado could have gotten to 62 before the losing streak, but that was a long shot. The Avalanche aren't historically good, but their season has been impressive, which is why a late-season slump (their power play is 0-for-16 in the past five games) is concerning.
Tampa Bay also struggled down the stretch in 2018-19, going 4-3-0 in its final seven games, 11.1 percent on the power play and 75.0 percent on the penalty kill, and allowing 3.43 goals-against per game. Worse, defenseman Victor Hedman sustained a concussion that caused him to miss the last four games of the regular season and limited him against Columbus. He played Games 1 and 2, wasn't himself and didn't get on the ice again. The Avalanche are dealing with injuries to defenseman Ryan Murray (upper body, 17 games), and forwards Mikko Rantanen (non-COVID illness, four games) and Gabriel Landeskog (knee, 21 games). Devon Toews, a defenseman, returned Tuesday after missing four games with a lower-body injury. Erik Johnson, a defenseman, returned for a 4-1 loss at the Winnipeg Jets on Sunday after missing four games with an undisclosed injury.
My other thought was that the 2018-19 Lightning had it so easy in the regular season and everyone thought they were ready to win the Stanley Cup after losing the Stanley Cup Final in 2015 and the Eastern Conference Final in 2016 and 2018. It turns out they needed a rock-bottom playoff loss in 2019 to fully understand what was missing from their lineup and game and have not lost a playoff series since.
The Avalanche have had high expectations the past three seasons only to lose in the second round all three times. The concern is they need one of those crystalizing wakeup-call playoff losses before they can win a championship. Maybe they don't. Maybe they just get over the hiccups they're having in the final weeks of the regular season and roll through the playoffs. But the concern about their recent play is fair, as is the projected comparison to the Lightning of three years ago.
Did Dave Lowry and Mike Yeo do enough to return as their respective team's coach? If not, who would you like to see behind the bench for the Winnipeg Jets and Philadelphia Flyers? -- @punmasterrifkin
I expect the Jets and Flyers to conduct coaching searches and to each have a full-time coach in place before the first round of the 2022 NHL Draft on July 7. It's too early to speculate on who they might choose without a full list of potential candidates. Lowry (Winnipeg) and Yeo (Philadelphia) could be candidates to keep their respective jobs, but I think both would be considered long shots because the interim tag remains on their title. If the Jets and Flyers were 100 percent sure, I would have expected them to remove the tag by this point. That it's still there for both tells me a coaching search is coming, which is fair since neither was able to change the fortunes of their team.
The Flyers are 17-34-7 (.353 points percentage) since Yeo replaced Alain Vigneault, who was fired Dec. 6, when they were 8-10-4 (.455 points percentage). Philadelphia is scoring 2.71 goals per game under Yeo, up from 2.32 for Vigneault, but allowing 3.72, up from 3.18 in 22 games with Vigneault. Special teams are also worse under Yeo (11.5 percent power play percentage versus 13.4 percent, 73.3 percent penalty kill percentage versus 82.6 percent). It's wrong to pin the blame for the Flyers' struggles all on Yeo, but they need an overhaul. I do not expect Yeo to be back.
The Jets have been more of the same under Lowry since he took over for Paul Maurice, who resigned Dec. 17, when they were 13-10-5 (.554 points percentage), averaging 2.96 goals per game and 2.75 goals-against with a power play percentage of 19.5 percent and penalty kill percentage of 68.8 percent. They're 23-22-6 (.510 points percentage) under Lowry. Winnipeg is scoring more (3.06 goals per game) and better on special teams (22.0 percent power play percentage, 77.9 percent PK), but allowing 3.37 goals per game. The change in the Jets since Lowry took over hasn't been great enough for him to instantly win the job over other potential candidates, but he should be a candidate.
Who is winning the Masterton? -- @aliaksei_protas
Zdeno Chara tops my list from the 32 candidates for the Bill Masterton Trophy, which is given to the player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to ice hockey. There is no one in the NHL today who demonstrates the qualities for what this award stands for better than the 45-year-old defenseman for the New York Islanders. Chara has persevered through a long NHL career that dates to the 1997-98 season. He set the NHL record for most games played by a defenseman this season (1,652). He's still a fixture in the Islanders lineup, playing more than 18 minutes per game. He's a leader. He plays the game tough but fair. There is never a controversy with him. He was a nominee for the Masterton Trophy in 2019 for the Bruins and last season with the Washington Capitals. He should win it this year.
Tyler Seguin is my second choice because of what the Dallas Stars forward had to endure just to get back on the ice. He spent most of last season and the entire offseason rehabbing from hip surgery and nerve damage in his right leg, injuries
that ravaged him
and took away his strength and almost the entire quad muscle.
My third choice is Flyers center Kevin Hayes, who persevered through his personal grief after his brother, former NHL forward Jimmy Hayes, died Aug. 23 at the age of 31. Kevin Hayes also had to overcome rehab from core muscle surgery he had in May and abdominal surgery Sept. 21. He had another surgery to drain fluid from the adductor region of his hip Jan. 18. It was caused by an infection in his groin that spread to his upper left leg.
Since some dust has settled, Peyton Krebs, Alex Tuch and a first-round pick or Jack Eichel? -- @JamesBerek
The exact details of the Nov. 5 trade were Eichel and a third-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft going to the Vegas Golden Knights from the Buffalo Sabres, who received Krebs, Tuch, a top-10 protected first-round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft and a second-round pick in the 2023 draft.
Nearly five months later, even with their playoff hopes fading, I'm making that trade again if I'm the Golden Knights. That trade was about a long-term play as much as Vegas was hoping it was a short-term shot in the arm when Eichel returned from artificial disk replacement surgery Feb. 16. The best of Eichel is still to come in a Golden Knights uniform. He's the best player in the trade, too. I'm always a fan of getting the best player in the trade, especially when that player is 25 years old and won't be 26 until Oct. 28. Krebs and Tuch are good players, but neither can elevate a team like Eichel, who at his best is one of the top centers in the NHL. We don't know who that first-round pick will turn into, so we can't speculate on Buffalo winning that part of the trade. That remains to be seen, but odds are against the Sabres getting a player as good as Eichel because it's a top-10 protected pick.
High expectations, like those on Eichel's shoulders, make us easily forget the major and unprecedented surgery he had Nov. 12. No NHL player previously had artificial disk replacement surgery. Vegas was supposed to be good enough to run away with first place in the Pacific Division without Eichel this season. That it isn't is certainly cause for alarm bells, but that doesn't mean the Golden Knights were wrong about Eichel. He'll be better next season with a full offseason workout regimen and full training camp. The Golden Knights have their No. 1 center. That's one thing they don't have to worry about in the offseason. That would be on their list of needs if they still had Krebs, Tuch and the first-round pick.
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